NORTH V. SOUTH

Evening Post, Volume CXVII, Issue 83, 9 April 1934, Page 11

NORTH V. SOUTH

SEATS IN THE HOUSE

POSSIBLE TRANSFERS

WHAT FIGURES SHOW,

' Of the seventy-six European scats in the House of Representatives, fortyseven arc held in the North Island and twenty-niuo in the South Island, and on a strict population basis it would appear that the South Island is in danger .of losing two more- scats. No doubt the South Island would not give up the two scats without a struggle, but as the law stands at present it looks as if it will have to bow to the inevitable. The possibility has not been overlooked in the south, and the Christehurch "Press," always a stout advocate of South Island aspirations and hopes, discusses the position, quite frankly and not very optimistically. The population of the North Island has established such a lead over that of the South in tho last eight years that it seems likely that when the next compulsory revision of the electoral boundaries is made the South Island may lose two of its scats in Parliament (says tho "Press"). Normally the revision would have boen made in 1931, immediately after the Census which was to have been taken in. that year. For reasons of economy the Government decided not to take the Census, and a result was that tho revision was not made. But since there was no decision indefinitely to postpone the Census, presumably one will be taken at the end of the next five-year period, in 1936. If that is done, a revision of tho electoral boundaries will be compulsory under tho Electoral Act of 1027. A GRADUAL LEAD. Tho gradual dominance ef the North Island in population extends back several years. It was so marked even' as recently as 1927, when the last revision of electoral boundaries took place in New Zealand, that the South Island lost one seat and the North gained correspondingly. The Ashburton and Ellesmero,districts were merged to form Mid-Canterbury, and Auckland cainod the new seat of Auckland Suburbs. After the redistribution of that year the North Island had forty-seven of the sevonty-six seats in.tho House of Representatives and the gouth Island had twenty-nine. ' The whole basis of the revision is to secure equality of voting strength in the electorates, and as there have been considerable changes in the distribution of population since tho last revision, it : seems proper to presume that important changes in the constitution ot tho electorates will have to follow. COMPARATIVE POPULATIONS. A few simple calculations indicate the statistical position, which seems to bear out the foregoing conclusions, in 1926 when tho Census was taken upon which the revision of. 1927 was_ based, the North Island had a population in excess, of that of the South by 310,10/ persons. On that, basis the -North secured a representation in Parliament of eighteen more members than the South. There-has-been no change in lhat representation to the present time, ■ although since 1926, to April 1, 1903,- - 'the North Island's excess of population over that of tho South .had grown to ■576 843 Thus tho population ot the North Island sinco 1926 has increased by 57,686 'more than the increase in The following table illustrates tho position,-the figures given being ex elusive of Maoris. The figures for April 1, 1933, arc estimated.

rotation ..?S2ij : ,- ira- ««»<*• North Island .... ?-'J'«J;r . i\ n i?A V°S2 South Island .. u12,6j1> JiO.Job -a,-> -

The population of the North Island is increasing, nearly, twice, as last as that of the South Island. The North Island's new preponderance of population on the basis used for the- last distribution of electorates •would provide constituents enough tor "two additional members of Parliament. To arrive at a proper distribution; of seats, tho Kopresentation Commission which undertakes- the periodical revision works on tho basis ot an equal population for each member ot tho Bouse. Then: arc 7(5 scats in tho House 'of Representatives, and if the present. ' estimated population of New Zealand .\ii.s to bo divided equally among the , members- each would have to look : after the interests of approximately •20,24'> people (the population in that c.KSO being the estimate of 1,535,182, to ' .December 31, 1033,. X would thus lake at least two members to care ' for the needs of tho North Islands ; additional r>7,656 souls whn wen; not provided for on the basis for tho old electorates. THE COUNTRY QUOTA. The position, when it, comes up for levicw, will be affected lo a certain extent by the', nature of the drift of population, for an increase of rural population would naturally assist the influence of the much-discussed country quota in deciding the allocation of electorates. But statistical evidence points to a drift of population to city 'areas. The New Zealand Year Book for 1934 contains tho significant^ para- . graph: "The increasing proportion of urban population in recent years is plainly manifest. It is noteworthy that 1 tho 'urban drift/ either non-existent or quiescent up to 1906, in that year commenced a swift rise, which is gaining in momentum-" The country quota, which is considered in some quarters to operate badly against tho urban areas, was introduced to preserve a more even bala-nce of power. Its provision allows •tho Commissioners undertaking the revision to make an addition of 8S per cent, to the actual population of rural areas to bring them within reasonable tioliiical strength when compared with more thickly populated districts. .Us operation produces something of a . paradox, for in many rural electorates a, member will be representing a • nominal population, part of which; even to the extent of more than a thousand, is fictitious. 1 EXAMPLE IN MID-CANTERBURY. Mid-Canterbury offers a good example. Its 1926 population in tho ' urban areas was 5076; the rural population was 12,427, making an actual population of 17,503. The quota for tho 1927 revision of boundaries (tho figure representing tho average number of constituents for each member) v,-v.a 19,820. The Mid-Canterbury population was below that figure to the extent of 2317, so that, exercising its power, the Commission added tho country quota and brought the nominal population up to 20,983. The member for Mid-Canterbury in that way represented 3480 constitutcnts who were entirely fictitious. To preserve this balance in the electorates in urban areas, tho Commissioners have an equally delicate task. It is often necessary to make allocations of certain districts which appear ii.numa.lous. For instance, to securo the quota, in tho Chrisstchurcb South electorate'during tno I;ist it! whs necessary to break the boundary line along 'Colombo Street, which would havo been its ordinary course, ,-itid take a very small slice of Sydenham, via Kins; (Street and 'IVmiyson Street. Residents in the locality often express amazement at: tho apparent anomaly, but such action was fomvl necessary by the South Island Cominia-

sioners, who have to work within narrow limits when allocating for the urban districts. WITHIN THE CITY. But since 1927 even the city population has fluctuated so greatly, and extended so much in certain directions, that it is believed that several big changes will have to be made oven in the allocation of the urban electorates in Clmstdvnrch. The effect will be similar with tho electorates in the South .Island as a whole, and it is inspected that when the Commissioners take up tho task which will presumably fall to them in 193G, they will have to recommend the forfeiture of still another South Island electorate. If that proves to bo tho case, those electorates which necessitated tho' greatest assistance from the country quota in the last revision will suffer. Two of these sparsely populated areas would probably be amlagamated, as was the case with Ellesmere and Ashburton.