INCREASING USE

Evening Post, Volume CXVI, Issue 131, 30 November 1933, Page 14

INCREASING USE

WEATHER FORECASTS

ACCURACY ENHANCED

SEEDS OF THE' SEMICE

That the time is now ripe for the Dominion's Meteorological Service to have its own wireless station .for tho quick dissemination of reports and forecasts is suggested by Dr. E. Marsden in the annual report of the Department of Scientific and ■Industrial Kescai'ch. "Increasing use is made of the weather forecasts, and it is desirable that no means of improving their accuracy and availability' should bo neglected," he says.

"Advances have been made elsewhere through increasing the density of and the area covered by the reporting stations and the frequency and detail of the reports. Tho accuracy of short-period forecasts, , especially, has been considerably enhanced. Tho dissemination of the reports arid forecasts amongst the public requires to be equally free and rapid. iPor the greater part of these services wireless telegraphy has special advantages, and the extent to which'it is employed is ever increasing. Indeed, so many and varied are the demands made by modern meteorological services on wireless that the majority operate their own stations, and it-ifceenis clear that this procedure will, Before long, have to be adopted in New Zealand."

Dr. 12. Ifidsou, Director of Meteorological. Services, amplifies this in his report, remarking that in order to pass ou the modem developments in the science of meteorology to the public it is necessary that the collection and dissemination of information should be both very complete and rapid. This could be secured largely by the use of wireless telegraphy. One of the unavoidable limitations of . weather forecasts is the difficulty of describing the weather. On most day's there is so great a variation from place to place that merely to describe' the weather over a country like New Zealand at any one instant would, require a large of words, while to give a detailed account of that occurring in twenty-four hours would require pages. This is a difficulty • that is seldom realised, especially by city folk. When showers are moving at intervals across the country, .for example, it never, will bo possible in a general forecast to tell the people in all the suburbs of a largo city.at precisely what times tot expect rain. ELEMENTS OF SUCCESS. "The success of a-forecasting service," says Dr. Kidson, "depends first and foremost on the Availability of free and rapid means of intercommunication by telegraph,' cable, and wireless. This is generally realised. In Australia, for example, the telegraph and wireless services are available to the Meteorological Bureau free of charge, the only limitation being that the use should be reasonable. The amount of traffic thus handled is between fifteen and twenty times-that in New Zealand. The leading wireless telegraph companies throughout the world have agreed to transmit weather messages at half the ordinary rates and priority is accorded to them. The private cable companies in the China seas transmit weather cables free of | charge. In England quarter rates are charged for meteorological messages. In New Zealand, on the other , hand, there have in recent years been progressive restrictions. The Meteorological Office is charged, in accordance with the present system, for all services by the Post and Telegraph Der partment,. which has a monopoly or communications. The Ttem for telegrams is consequently the largest in the budget of the branch and the first to bo attacked.when an economy campaign is in progress. Some years ago morning reports from all over the Dominion used to be displayed ' daily for the public information in all the important ports. It was thus possible for shipmasters and others to form a reasonably complete view of the state of the weather over the country and interpret intelligently the official forecast. The number of places to which the report is not sent has been greatly reduced, and not more than twelve stations may be included in the list-of reports to any one place. Such a service is quite inadequate. A more complete one would be of great use to motorists and'aviators, as well as other interests. Again,^ the number of towns to which the midday forecast is' sent has been progressively restricted. The official forecast itself has to be sent in a code such as is used in no other country .and which is quite unsuitable. It is true that the wireless broadcasting services have become available foT disseminating information, and in many respects they- have . advantages over line services or issues in; Morse code. But a telephoned broadcast is not a good medium for transmitting actual weather reports, and in general does not altogether replace the written word. As* regards information received by the Meteorological Office, there has also been a considerable reduction in the number of deporting stations. "This has a definite effect on the forecasts apart from the inevitable reduction in the completeness of knowledge of the general situation. For example, the forecaster will often cease predicting rain in a particular district because in the same type of weather the few reports he has received from tho district indicate fine weather. Yet reports received later by post may show that rain has fallen in many places. Then, there are numbers of reports issued by wireless which we have at present no means of intercepting. Particularly valuable would be-a long list, of reports now broadcasted in Australia, the receipt of which would enable us to apply the Norwegian methods with some success in this region, in spite of the difficulties created by our ocean surroundings. Keports from New Caledonia, which are not intercepted here, would also be useful. Furthermore, we are not able to take advantage of weather reports at standard hours broadcasted by certain 'selected ships.' according to' a recent international arrangement. I find it difficult to believe that the supplying of these reports 4p us.would really r involve any considerable expense to the Dominion qr that the other restrictions imposed on us represent a real economy. It_ is sincerely to be hoped that the facilities available will, before long, be largely increased." WEATHER MAPS WANTED. The meteorologist is fully aware, admits Dr. Kidson, that his results fall short of perfection, and if circumstances permitted he would prefer t^ defer the issuing of regular public forecasts until the system had been placed on a sounder basis. Forecasts, however, were sufficiently accurate to create an insistent public demand for them, so the only.thing to do was to endeavour continuously to improve their accuracy, and this was being done. Dr. Kidson adds, that the weather chart, made daily by the meteorologist, was, if published in simplified form. very valuable to the layman. "In Australia," ho remarks, "each of the important daily newspapers prints a copy of the day's weather map. In other countries printed copies are delivered to subscribers and posted in numerous prominent .positions. Better still, in America and Germany it is possible,

with the aid of inexpensive apparatus, to receive a copy of the latest chart by wireless in the course of a very few minutes. The receiving machine automatically prints the chart as the signals come from the issuing station. It is often through the teaching of a certain amount of meteorology in' tho schools and the general employment of the weather chart that full use can be made of a forecasting service. An elementary knowledge of meteorology is becoming of increasing importance in many walks of life, especially in connection with aviation. Therefore it is most desirable that the Meteorological Office should have sufficient, staff and resources to enable it to publish a daily weather chart."