TO WORLD ORDER

Evening Post, Volume CXVI, Issue 73, 23 September 1933, Page 5

TO WORLD ORDER

PROGRESS AT LONDON

WHAT THE CONFERENCE DID

PROBLEM.. OF. DEBTS

I Some weeks ago there was laid before the assembled statesmen of sixty-six nations an agenda as lengthy, and in its nature as complex, as any wliieh has confronted the post-war era of .-mighty Conferences (writes Victor Gordon Lennox hi the London "Daily Telegraph"). It summarised the lines along which the nations, by concerted action, might bring about economic disarmament and so pave the way for a return to conditions of peaceful and prosperous trading. A world which for fifteen years hud deluded itself into the belief that it had been rendered richer, not poorer, by fifty months of intensive self-de-struction, had been forced into recognition of the inexorable facts. To the outward eye the Conference lias fallen far short of its purpose. Even while it has been sitting the ideal of co-operative international effort seems to have given place to a. spirit of intensified economic nationalism. A new and vast area of volcanic activity has rocked the earth, and each man, uncertaiu what it may" presage, is hurrying home to defend himself as best he may. While the future of the United States, committed suddenly to an experiment in bureaucratic Socialism on a scale hitherto unknown, remains unresolved, so long will international cooperation for economic disarmament remain beyond the realm of practical achievement. A NARROW VIEW. Yet to conclude from these broad superficial facts that the London Conference had better, never have 1 ecu called, or to denounce it as utterly barren, would be to overlook much that is fundamentally impossible. That it has been found necessary to adjourn at this point is not duo solely to the American experiment. It is due l-.irgely to lack of preparation." For that the-experts of ■ nine- States who drafted the agenda cannot be blamed. They presented their report last January, and in it they declared that "the prospects of substantial all-round success in the necessarily complex and multilateral Conference discussions will be greatly enhanced if in the coming mouths preliminary negotiations have cleared the way for reciprocal concessions." Alas! little or nothing was done, if one cxeepts those trips across the Atlantic made "by the statesmen of several leading nation* So it has come about that the Conference, which was to have drafted its Convention, has succeeded only in completing its "second reading debate." : . - In effect, what was to have been the full-dress Conference has been little more than a Preliminary Commission. None the less, if note is taken of the matters that have been discussed both inside and outside of the Conference during the past six weeks, it will be seen that when the Conference is again called together there are excellent prospects of useful conclusions being reached. THE CREDIT SIDE. Let us see, therefore, what has been done and what left undone. On the credit side can bo placed the general acceptance by the world as a whole of the desirability of regulating supply to demand as an important factor in the the maintenance of price levels.- The idea, sponsored by Fiance and Great Britain, was taken up with surprising enthusiasm. To quote Mr. Runciman, this question "Had at first occupied a comparatively modest place among the great problems to bo discussed. It was then found to answer a deeply-felt want. One after another the - delegations interested in certain important branches of production asked that the matter should form the subject of a special study." As a, result, examination which has covered the principal agricultural commodities and many industrial raw materials has, in each instance, led to Governmental approval of the principle j of regulating production and marketing. l With this stimulus it is anticipated tliat the industries themselves will now hurry forward their plans for .cartel organisation, confident that their Governments will take whatever legislative action is needed to render them effective. This achievement cannot be regarded as unimportant. To relieve the market of the ill-effects of a heavy world surplus of silver, an agreement, subject to ratification by Governments, has been "reached in detail. In all probability active negotions towards the same end in the world's wheat trade will have reached finality before the Conference adjournment. Since Ottawa a similar scheme affecting the bulk of the world's meat exports has been in operation. OTHER COMMODITIES. At the latest Conference progress to a like end has been made in respect of dairy products, sugar, wine, coffee, cocoa, timber, coal, copper, and tin, while cotton and tea remain to bo discussed. At the outset it had been hoped to go far towards general approval with some plan for the gradual abolition of restrictions upon the exchange of goods and of foreign exchange control. Here the nervousness and uncertainty created by the American experiment made real progress impossible. But it has been observable at South Kensington that the rebirth of a stabilised America would be the signal, .for a genuine desire to proceed rapidly to the conclusion of plans for the progressive lowering of economic barriers on international lines. On the other hand, no tendency 10 j abandon selfish and economically unsound nationalism in the matter of j State export arid shipping bounties and subsidies was apparent. Another disappointment, and one that is specially hurtful to this country. Moreover—for these talks were directed against subsidised cargo rather than passenger vessels —there is revealed a menacing character in the policy of the Japanese Government, which is developing and building a now type of fast .collier all too easily convertible for warlike purposes. On the monetary side the Conference was called upon to decide what immediate steps could bo taken for financial reconstruction as a preliminary to the restoration of an international monetary standard, and what measures would then be necessary to maintain its efficient functioning. The latter part of this discussion has resulted in unanimous agreement, firstly that gold should bo re-established as the standard, and that as quickly as possible, and secondly on'the bulk of the measures essential to its proper functioning. BROADLY OUTLINED. The policy then to be pursued by Central Banks and their establishment where they do not already exist has been broadly outlined and agreed to by all Governments other than that of the United States, whose Central Bank considered the moment politically inopportune to commit itself publicly. The consideration of Immediate Measures proved a much more difficult business once it was realised-that there

could, be no..temporary, stabilisation., of the leading currencies to protect "them against speculative raids while these measures. were the subject of public discussion. Here it had been hoped to hammer out a policy of liberal credit which' would materially assist the healthy expansion of business and so arrest declining prices. This hope was clashr-.l completely by the announcement of the, American experiment, with all its implications, as were the further hopes for declarations of policy on price levels, limitation of currency fluctuations, exchange controls, and resumption of. lending. All this vast group of questions, ivgarded by the preparatory experts :m of primary and immediate importance, has been left over for a more propitious period—which means . when the United States has found out what it* ultimate policy will be, and when this gold standard countries arc no longer frightened for the future of their own. stability. " . 'Yet it'cannot be regarded as-with-out importance that the huge problem, of servicing external debts (other than inter-Governmental debts) has been fully explored, and agreement reached on vital principles which should be followed. . ....... ADVANCE MADE. In conclusion, therefore, it can bo asserted—as it certainly will be asserted by Mr. Mac Donald at the adjournment session—that a substantial advance lias been made towards the resolution of problems which, in their very-essence, could hardly be ..resolved by the delivery of optimistic speeches and debating society methods,. Sufficient has been established to permit of objective negotiations being carried on forthwith. When these arc sufficiently advanced, another full session would be justified in adding the'finishing. touches, aimed to secure the adhesion of countries which have not been.' formally included in the interim stagi1. Each delegation will return to its country with fuller appreciation of tha other fellow's problems. ' The. American delegation, in particular, will go back to the United States with a painfully real appreciation of the effect; wliieh its Governmental policy can havu on the rest of. the world, and,*l fancy, with a, fuller realisation that America cannot afford to stand alone. The British Dominions, too, will havu had a salutary reminder that they, also, cannot afford to pursue isolationist and wholly self-interested policies. Indeed, before the Empire delegates go their several ways the links of Empire, together with those of Britain's other best customers, may have been substantially strengthened. The Conference goes on. Nor need itJ members be unduly depressed by tlu I seemingly small inroads they have sue- ', j cecded in making into their formidable I objective.