GRAVE DANGER

Evening Post, Volume CXII, Issue 105, 30 October 1931, Page 8

GRAVE DANGER

MR. H. E. HOLLAND'S COMMENT

ANALYSIS OF VOTING

Commenting to-day on the result of the General Elections in Great Britain, the Leader of the ©position (Mr. H. E Holland) contrasted the voting with that of 1923, and predicted a reaction in favour of Labour at future by-elec-tions. Mr. Holland hinted that Mr. Bamsay Mac Donald will now be dropped by the Conservatives as head of the new Administration. ♦'Britain's hour of gravest danger, said Mr. Holland, "strikes with the decisive victory of the Conservatives and loss of their Parliamentary and constitutional effectiveness by the organised workers. It is true that this is a direct result of votes cast by a considerable section ■of the workers themselves; but that fact does not dim-, inish the gravity of the situation. With round about 30 per cent, of the total voting strength, the workers are left with Jess than 8 T>er cent, of the representation. The new Government has no definite programme of economic rehabilitation, and by reason of its constituent elements could not be expected to produce such a programme or to effectively administer it if by come magic of, Conservatism it could be produced. "With a national problem which grows out of the presence of nearly 3,000,000 ■unemployed workers and many other millions only intermittently employed, and with coming economies which mean substantial reductions in the standards of living of those who are already well below the bread-line, it is quite within the bounds of probability that many ■who transferred their support to tho Conservatives in this atmosphere _of a psychology of political panic, will be storming at tho doors of Downing Street as soon as they realise the futility of their new rulers. BEGINNING OF TRAGEDY. "On this morning's figures Mr. Baldwin leads 471 Conservatives, while Mr. Mac Donald is the leader of 14 members who describe themselves as 'National Labour.' There are. 63 National Liberal members and three National Independents. The National Labour men constitute a very small tail; and. under the circumstances I do not think tho •Manchester Guardian' is very far astray when, after having described the election campaign as 'the shortest and most .fraudulent' in our time,' it predicts that Mr. Mac Donald's tragedy is just beginning. It is not very likely that Mr. Mac Donald will be permitted by the Conservatives to1 remain very long at the head of the new Administration.. No tail of any dog can function either effectively or logically as that, part of the animal's anatomy which was designed by nature or .circumstance to do the barking. PYRRHUS'S VICTORY. "There isa curious contradiction in the attitude of Mr. Mac Donald and that of the vast majority of his new rartv. He went before the electors proclaiming himself still a Labour man and protesting that he had not surrendered his Socialist ideals or any part of the political principles for which the Labour movement stood. His colleagues come back from the election declaring that the result is a smashing defeat for Socialism and the Labour movement. The anti-Labour newspapers; which supported Mr. Mac Donald make the same proclamation, but in more stridently jubilant terminology. It would appear that, as far as Mr. MacDbnaia is personally affected, his victory is not altogether dissimilar from that which Pyrrhus won at Asculam. : , VOTING ANALYSED. "In 1918, when Mac Donald _ and Snowden were hounded out of political life by those with whom they are now associated, the Labour vote was 1.754,133, as against nearly 8,000,000 cast for the other parties. The Coalition of that year polled 5,185,*227. The number of Labour men returned' was only 59 out of a total of 707. In 1922, the Labour vote rose to 4,241,383, as against 9,552,759 for the other parties. Labour returned 142 members out of a total of 615.. In 1923, the Labour vote was 4,438,508,. as against 10,110,013 polled by its opponents, and 191 Labour members were returned. In the following year (1924), the Labour vote rose to 5,489,077, while 11,049,849 votes were cast for the other parties. The number of Labour xaeri elected was 151. In this contest the Conservatives secured 412 seats. In 1929 the Labour vote went up to 8,389,512, as against 14^258,842 cast for its opponents, and the number of successful Labour candidates was, 289. This year it appears that the Labour Party has polled about 7,000,000 votes, while its opponents have received about 16,500,000. _ So that there is no very wide margin of difference in the proportion of the Labour vote to the total. That proportion has. generally been in the vicinity of one-third. It was only in 1929 that more than one-third of the total was secured by Labour. As against 1929 Labour loses about a million iand a quarter of .votes; and, as a result of the combination of the Conservative and Liberal elements, the representation goes down to 48 from 289. A contrast of the 1923 result with that of 1931' is interesting. With less than four and a half-million votes in 1923 the Labour Party secured 191 seats; with nearly seven million votes in 1931, only 48 seats are won. "My prediction is that in the indus--4 trial centres all the by-elections will be won by Labour during the life of the present Parliament, and that the next ; contest will show a decisive return '' from the present reaction to the Labour Partyt