BETTING STATISTICS

Evening Post, Volume CXI, Issue 144, 20 June 1931, Page 21

BETTING STATISTICS

ODDS AGAINST BACKERS

WHAT FIGURES REVEAL

"Favourites .are having a good day," is an observation-, sometimes heard on the racecourse,'and those who are content to place their wager with the' .majority are satisfied —for the time being—that picking the winner is not so difficult, after all, says tbe southern- writer "Siindridge" in au interesting ; compilation, of the racing season's betting statistics. . However, he adds, it- is,-, cold fact that following favourites •with any consistency this sea* son -would, nave been a very unprofitable business..! ""'V. ' ■ . ~, To discover' how far it has been possible to make money by backing any one order of favouritism, Wd 8; some" 1 of "systems," on a flat 'scale of wagering, the winners of the 1629 gallops decided this season up to the conclusion of the Waikato Meeting on Monday have beeu summarised The following table gives the result down: to the fifteenth favourite, and includes about 99 per cent; of the 1C29 races run:—'

=Dead-heaters have been-considered as sole dinners-for the purpose of the table. The table reveals that to follow any one ranking number throughout would have resulted in a loss. And more particularly how remote a chance has the consistent backer-of outsiders of coining out on' the right side .of the ledger! A keeii follower oi' the Tui£ relates, continues "Sundridge," that over a period of 25 years, third and fourth favourites hare been the best to follow, and he further states that in recent years lie has backed these on the electric totalisators with some apparent measure of success. This term, however, he has not been particularly fortunate.

The average dividend- paid by favourites, when one considers the large number who go out at odds-on, must be nearer £2 10s than £3. Second favourites probably average out at £3, third fancies at £4, fourth £5, and fifth at £7. The return varies according to the concentration of betting .and the size of the field, but these prices are close enough for purposes of comparison. It is apparent, then, that to reveal any sort ot profit, first fancies must win more frequently than once in three times. But do they?- In the first 1000 racing events decided this season, carrying through the summer, favourites won 322 races, seconds 17! i thirds 161, fourths 100, fifths 64, sixths- 54, sevenths 31, ninths 23, and tenths.111. Each succeeding number, therefore, showed a progressive deficit. As the season has advanced from that stage, the averages of first and second favourites have "slightly improved from 32 to &3 per cent, in the case of the former, and from 13 to It) per cent, in the case of. the latter. It is generally assumed that autumn is the season for favourites, but this season, at least, the improvement was not appreciable. , On no occasion during the current term has the public "nicked the card." The best performance was at the Bay of Islands Racing Club Meetiug on 17th January, when the first fancy was second in the opening event, and came home in the other seven. On four occasions, nil being at minor meetings, five of the eight winners have been the public selections. Quite a number of times they huye failed to salute the judge during the day, and those who declare that -the game is .becoming more difficult have some colour for their contention.

. Order of favouritism.- Winners." 1 533 2 ■ 30G 3 '255 ., 4 - 171 ".3 ' ■ '. ' J01 . B 83 ■■■ T ■■■■■. 52 ■ S ■ • ■ ■■•• -43 9 ■ ' •• 3t 10 1G 11 : - 13 12 7 13 A 14 - .. S 15 " 2 Percentage ' of wins. "3 10 ](! •10 ■ fi 5 lVi 1 0.S 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 '