Evening Post. WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 1930. THE TURN OF THE WHEEL

Evening Post, Volume CX, Issue 115, 12 November 1930, Page 10

Evening Post. WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 1930. THE TURN OF THE WHEEL

The strong set of public opinion against the Mac Donald Government was further revealed by the result of the Shipley election which was reported on Saturday. Just a week previously the South Paddington verdict had shown that in an electorate which the Conservatives held at the 'General Election without a contest they had been able to divide their forces almost equally and yet to get majorities of more than 2000 for both candidates. In Shipley, which had never voted Conservative before, they were able to convert a Labour majority of 4961 into a Conservative majority of 1545, and thus to give the Government what appears to be the hardest knock it has yet received. As last year was a slump year for the Conservatives, it is of course necessary for them to make a great advance throughout the country if they are to win the next General Election, but in Shipley their achievement is far ahead of that of their "boom" year, 1924. In that year Labour had a majority of 596 over the Conservatives, while 9800 votes went to the Liberal candidate. In spite of an increased Lijberal vote of 12,785 the Conservative majority over Labour is now 1665. Such a remarkable advance shows that under existing conditions an appeal to the country would give the Conservatives a very good chance if Mr. Baldwin can come to terms with the Empire Crusaders. The Conservative Press is reported to "have hailed the Shipley result as a victory for safeguarding, and as no conflicting comments are quoted from the Beaverbrook-Rothermere organs, it may probably be assumed that this issue was given precedence by > a Conservative candidate whom the Empire Crusaders were nevertheless able to accept. In any event, the result indicates a considerable swing in favour of protection of some sort, though, if Labour is to be regarded as favourable to Free Trade, there is still a solid majority in favour of that issue. From this standpoint, however, it is remarkable that the Liberals, who alone stick to the pure milk of the word of Cobden, and have had little encouragement from previous by-elections, have on this occasion improved their position by about 1000 over last year's figures, and nearly 3000 over those of 1924. This apparent contradiction admits of the simple explanation that the fiscal issue is not. really playing the important part that the extremists on either side assume. It has always seemed to us probable on broad grounds that the abject failure of the Government in regard to unemployment was doing far more 'to discredit them with the electors than the attractions of safeguarding, protection, or preference, and the assumption receives a strong support from the Shipley figures. Though both the Opposition parties have greatly improved their General Election figures, their combined gains represent but a little more than a half of the loss that the Government has sustained. While the Conservatives have gained 1545 votes and the Liberals 1073, the Government has lost 5081. More than 2000 of those who voted Labour last year have voted for the Communist this time or stayed away, and it seems natural to suppose that the main cause for both voters and abstainers was the confessed impotence of the Government in regard to unemployment. It is at any rate a resounding vote of no-con-fidence, which has given a discredited Government another bad shake and made them at once more anxious to avoid an appeal to the country and less able to resist it. As this can only be done with the support of the Liberals; their improved position in Shipley may strengthen the bargaining power of Mr. Lloyd George in his endeavour to come to a firm understanding with the Government. His party's vote in Shipley shows that it still has some vitality left, and an understanding which sufficed to bring over even 20 per cent, of the Shipley Liberals would have saved the seat for the Government. But the division on the Conservative amendment to the Address-in-Reply which was reported on Friday, and the remarkable letter which was published at the same time, showed that Mr. Lloyd George's Parliamentary manoeuvres had suffered another serious set-back. The direct result of the vote is said to have been never in doubt, and the Government had a comfortable majority of 281 to 250, but the incidental trouble in the Liberal Party was a more interesting business. Mr. Lloyd George's little flock were divided into three sections. Five Liberals, including Sir John Simon and Sir Robert Hutchison, the Chief Whip, voted against the Government; four others voted in its favour, while Mr. Lloyd George and others abstained. The division was followed by the resignation of Sir Robert Hutchison, who had tendered it at the time of the similar trouble over the Coal Mines Bill in March,

when one of his subordinates resigned. But of much greater importance was the publication of a letter which Sir John Simon had previously written to Mr. Lloyd George declaring his unwillingness to support a Government which, after 17 months' trial, had proved "a complete failure in practically all departments." Your -well-meant efforts, to help it to do something effective, said Sir John, have produced no result except to expose the Liberals to the reproach that they are keeping in friendly contact with the Socialists in an effort to save their own skins. If, therefore, a question arises regarding confidence in the Government, I shall feel obliged to vote in any way to show that I, at any rate, have no confidence in it. Having thought the situation carefully over, I hold that the plain course is the best, and tactics must take care of themselves. The reception of this letter suggests that Sir John Simon's long absence from politics for the purposes of the Indian Commission and other national labours has rather increased his influence than otherwise. Everywhere, we are told, it is agreed that Sir John Simon's letter is an event of political importance, damaging the prestige of both the Lloyd Georgians and the Government. The effect possibly will be even greater in the country than in Parliamentary circles. One may agree with Sir John Simon that "the plain course is best," and ,yet regret that he has exploded this bombshell on the eve of the Indian Round Table Conference.