RAPID PROGRESS

Evening Post, Volume CX, Issue 36, 11 August 1930, Page 10

RAPID PROGRESS

HUTT AND PETONE

POPULATION GROWTH

AMALGAMATION ISSUE

In his introductory remarks to lv* report upon.tho proposal for Tttc atsalgamation of the Boroughs of Petone- and Lower Hutt, Mr. G. J. J. Feil gives I'.onsideration to the general question of population growth in the Valley and to tho probable future development. He shows that the rate has been latterly, considerably more rapid in Lower Hutt than in Pctone, and suggests . that Petone's population will in future remain more or less stationary, vhilo there is still much development ahead for Lower Hutt.

By far tho greater part of these boroughs, states, the report, consists of Hat land, though on the ■western side of the Valley the lower foothills are included within the boroughs-boundari-es in both cases. So far as the eye-can, see there is no natural division between the two boroughs, though' for a short distance they are separated by. the river. The Main road and the -railway, tun through the Valley near its wes-. tern side, and it lias naturally follow ed that the greatest density of population is to be found adjacent to both road and railway. So far as Petone is concerned, there has also been a massing •of population near the southern or seacoast boundary. With the opening up •)i railway and road facilities toward the eastern side of the Valley, there is a well-marked flow of population toward that side, and this flow tends to increase the population of the~ Lower Hutt niueh more than that of Petone.

In times .past, when transport difficulties were greater the tendency was exhibited of a population increase ia Petone at the expense of the Lower Hutt, owing to the greater proximity of the former borough to "Wellington, but since the advent of road transport the population of the Lower Hutt Borough has increased .at a . relativelygreater rate than that of Petone, while the opening up of the .< new,: railwayworkshops ; within the .former ■ borough will cause' greater. increases: still.

The present areas of the two: boroughs are as follow:—Petone, ■ 1132 acres; Lower Hutt, 3706 acres. • These areas have not changed since the constitution of the separate boroughs/ The rateable area of Petone is 1012 acres, and that of the. Lowe Hutt may. .be assumed to be approximately 3320 acres. POPULATION FORECAST. Tables are' included in the report showing the increase in. population on the two boroughs, and also for the whole of the Wellington urban area, which comprises not only the district known as Greater Wellington, but also includes the boroughs of Lower Hutt, Petone, Bastbournc, and portions of the Hutt; and Makara Counties, which may be considered as belonging to the area suburban to the City of' Wellington. It w ;il be seen that in the two bdroughi to be considered, the population has increased at a very much more rapid rato thau in the urban area as a whole.

The forecasted population of Petona in 1944 is set down, at 15,900j and of Lower Hutt in that year 0f'26,500, the figures being based on : the general trend as shown by percentage increase* during'the. past years. It is remarked that the forecast should be considered. as a conservative one, but. it was admittedly extremely difficult to forecast the : movements of population in" any individual borough, as. the percentage of increase was liable to disturbances quita outside of the view of an investigator. With the present tendency -to treat Petone as <<m industrial centre, it seemed unlikely that .the density per acre therein could greatly inereas'e.«beyon<l the existing figure; so that Lower flutfc possessed the capacity to absorb a very, much larger population, as the' maximum; density possible with a purely residential area was certainly not- less than from 25 to 30 per acre.' It would be found upon comparison . with, other boroughs in. New. Zealand that " th» maximum recorded was that of .'..the borough of St. Kilda (a suburb of Dunedin) with a,density oft 27. St. Kilda; was a purely residential area with small holdings almost all of one' size.' • It must bo many years before the "density of the population in the-Lower Hutt reached this figure, but the facj.s were mcntioned;in order that the fiitura possibilities of the expansion of population should not be overlooked.;' HOLDINGS AND LAND VALUES. The numbers of ratb assessments ia the two boroughs (with the, : numbers for 192b' in parentheses) are shown as follows: Petone, 2756 (2458) ;■ Lower Hutt, 414.6 (2687). The.:ayerage siz» of each holding: in .Petone: has'been reduced from 66 perches in 1926 to<ol, perches, and in Lower.-Hutt £rom,l9§ perches to 129. perches, and the reposl continues that it was a natural.'.cons* quonce of the increase in : population that the number ; of assessments shoulj also increase by,reason of -the takinj place of subdivisions so that the aye» rage size of a holding .would tend to b$ reduced, though the ■-~average<valu# would not be,correspondingly affected. .. The average values as: per; head oj population disclosed, as might be>. e:s» pected, falling averages so far- as'th* unimproved value was' concerned i* both boroughs; *but in regard to th^ value of improvements, although Pc« tone, showed a regular rise,-> values :is the Lower Hutt were somewhat -irregular, pointing, it would appear, to the fact that the buildings now being erected in that borough wore of a lower cost than had been the case in tho past. It was apparent that although jn times past residences in the Lower Hutt were larger and more costly than- in Petonp- the present' indications we're, .tha^ buildings in both boroughs were on * similar scale. ■ ; . . The effect of the new valuation i* tho Lower Hutt during.the year.l92B--29 prevented any sound comparisons being made for that year, so-that it could not be seen whether the trend* indicated above had been maintained. BUILDINa PEEMITS. As an indication of the growth, of the two boroughs tho figures relating to building permits issued were of great interest. The following, table gives the number, the total Value, andt the average value of each permit, for; each of the- four years under review:— > Xumbcr. ' ' ' ; 1826. 1927. 1928. 1929. retone .. 204 2<l 247 253 Lower Hutt • 335" , 692 787 55? Total Value. , ■ ' £££ . : £ Petono ..174,103 166,011 203,086- 165,795 Lower Hutt 216,107 442.86S .454,935 ,388,070 Averago Value. ,_. £ . . £ £" ::~ £ Petone' .. 555 614 825 - - 65* Lower Hutt 645- '640 579. '', 69» "It. will be seen that during ..the whole period building has been-very; much moro active in the Lower Hutl; I than in Petone, though even in, thW latter borough the signs point to,* rapid and healthy growth," saysj th^ ■report.' '''Owing to the fact that-tha permits cover additioirs as well as newbuildings, it is' doubtful whether .any ivory sound conclusions.ican be drawn, from the average figures, .disclosed. Ik seems certain, however, that the present, day average value of buildfnw being erected in the Lower Hutt ■!• little, it' anything, in advance of .thai in respect of buildings in- the- ritt*^ borough." , , ~■ .. ■«, :■