COMING BRITISH ELECTION

Evening Post, Volume CVI, Issue 68, 29 September 1928, Page 20

COMING BRITISH ELECTION

•WHO WILL WIN? The attacking parties have tactical advantages at elections when they havo a good case, writes Sir Robert Donald in tho "Weekly Dispatch." Up to mow the British Government has given its opponents plenty of material. Byolcctions aro irrefutable proof that it has lost popularity; it has still a year and a half during which to regain "round. Its organisation machinery is understood to bo moro efficient than it has ever been. At the same time the organisers and leaders do not expect to repeat their triumph of 1924. _ Tho Conservatives at the last election held 415 seats—an absolute majority of 215 over all other parties—Labour, Liberal, and Independent. At tho 1923 election they held 258 seats—99 fewer than the combined Opposition. I do not: suggest that tho Government will lose in the same proportion at tho general inquest of the nation as at the byelections, but the political barometer points to the loss of about the same number of seats which they have gamed in 1924—namely, 157. How are we going to allocate these seats? Forecasting the distribution from the liy-eleetions, the trend of events, and the relative prospects of parties at the j present time, I suggest that about 100 will go to Labour and the balance to Liberals, making the parties on this calculation approximately:— Conservatives 258 Labour 252 Liberal 99 This forecast only assumes that .Liberals will win seats from the Conservatives: they will also win some from Labour, while Labour has little scope for displacing Liberals. Scats held by National Liberals, returned by Conservative votes, will be lost, but, on balance, I would give the Liberals about 120—a readjustment which works out: — Conservatives ______.. 258 , Labour .._»•»• ••••4«. 222 Liberal 120 political meteorologist has other Symptoms to take into account, before at a final reading of the situa* (tion. Weak factors beset Labour. The jgencral striko reacted against the parity, and the Trade Union Act handicaps it in raising campaign funds. By-elee-ifciona reflected the effect of these adverse elements. In 1927 Labour made no headway. It won one election and lost one. This year it won Northampton and Linlithgow, both formerly Labour seats, but, with two exceptions, its polls did not show any appreciable increase. To speculate on what will be the effect of the Government's continued record in fifteen months' time, on the smash up of party values by tlio Equal Franchise (Flappers' Vote) Bill, or by the introduction of somo measuro which ■would awaken enthusiasm and enable speakers to sway multitudes, or effect a quick turn-over of votes, as did the Zinovicv letter—-all these things are beyond the scope of this deductive article, based upon what has happened or is surely indicated. I repeat, however, that the key to the fortunes and fate of tho two other parties is'in the hands of the resurrected Liberals and depends on the unity ' * of their high command, the efficiency of their organisation, and tho consolidation of their rank and file. I conceive possible circumstances which would give Liberals a larger representation in the next House. In any case, they are certain to hold the balance.