POLITICAL CHANGES IN BRITAIN

Evening Post, Volume CVI, Issue 53, 11 September 1928, Page 10

POLITICAL CHANGES IN BRITAIN

«, Last week's report of tho gaps that age and ill-health are likely to make in the British Ministry at tho close of the present Parliament suggested that there will soon be room at the top, and yesterday it was supplemented by evidence that there will also bo an abundance of room at tho bottom. Not only

ivill tho retirement of Lord Birkciihead, Sir Austen Chamberlain, Mr. Bridgeman, and Sir "W. Mitchell-Thompson leave four places to fill in the Ministry, including two of tho very highest importance, but according to tho "Daily Express" 50 M.P.'s havo already decided definitely not to seek re-election, and the number is expected to reach 200. Tho voluntary retirement of nearly a third of tho House must bo very far in excess of the average. In ordinary course two-thirds of these members would have been Conservatives, since that is tho proportion of tho party's Parliamentary strength, but we may assume that so obvious a fact has not been overlooked by the "Daily Express," and that when it says that "by far the greatest number of retirements havo taken place among the Conservative back-benchers," it means that tho party is suffering more than its proportionate sharo of these voluntary casualties. At the first glance it might bo supposed that tho party which is in office and has not been seriously shaken would'bo the least likely to suffer from this cause, but thero arc, of course, disadvantages for aspiring talent in too large a majority, and from this standpoint a party which has passed tho two-thirda limit may bo said to have reached the saturation-point. For a man who wishes to rise thero can be no attraction in being an unregarded joint in a very large tail, and this aspect of the Conservative retirements is emphasised in tho diagnosis of the "Daily Express." In one respect, it says, these are strangely assorted, and include young men for whom a futuro has been prophesied, middle-aged men who plodded on without especial distinction, and elderly men with years of political service, suffering either from tiredness or disappointment. Though the removal of some of these aspirants will ease the task of the Government Whips, there is bound to bo among them a considerable proportion of the ability of the party, and ability is certainly not a quality of which it has a superabundance in its front rank. Not long ago the Conservatives were known as the stupid party, and though that time has passed, Mr. Baldwin has not succeeded in giving new blood and new brains the opportunities that ho was expected to give them. His own instincts and ideas have evidently been subordinated to what ho fouuel to bo the necessities of the position. Tho reconstruction which might havo risked the unity of the party has never been tackled, but willy-nilly he must face it when resignations create important vacancies and an extensive readjustment of portfolios will bo as inevitable as the admission of new talent. So far as his embarrassments are duo to tho extravagant size of hia majority, it may be regarded as certain that they will be considerably alleviated by the electors. Tho bad impression by which Mr. Ramsay Mac Donald ruinod his excellent start as Britain's first Labour Prime Minister and tho dramatic fashion in which that impression was deopened and reddened by tho publication of tho Zinovieff letter in a way and at a moment best calculated to injure his cause did just about a£ much for the Conservatives at the General Election as their own merits. Instead of expecting any such luck again they must rather look to their own merits as in large measure an asset for the other side, since in a time of severe depression no Government can do its duty without incurring great unpopularity. An inconveniently largo majority is ouo of Mr. Baldwin's troubles that may be confidently expected not to survive the coming General Election. From the continuous series of sotbacks which the Government has been receiving at tho by-elections it is indeed easy to infer not only that the Conservative majority will bo considerably reduced at the General Election, but that it will disappear altogether. It must, however, be remembered that a British Government, especially if it has a large majority, is always apt to suffer at by-elections, and that neither of the- immense advantages which the Government at present enjoys—the division of its opponents and the injustice of the electoral system—is likely to bo removed on this side of tho General Election. After Mr. Lloyd' George had replaced Lord Oxford, as tho Liberal leader the chances of a Liberal-Labour combination were freoly spoken of, and in February the brilliance of the victory which the Liberals won at Lancaster suggested that they might again become a party to be reckoned with, at any rate for the purposes of bargaining and coalition. But Lancaster proved to be a flash in the pan,' and neither in the House nor out of it do Mr. Lloyd George's advances appear to have made any solid progress. Mr. Snowden, with whom he was supposed to have had conversations on tho subject, showed how much snbstanoo there was in them when about the time of the Lancaster election he jibed at the Liberals as follows:— The pathetic attempts of the Liberals to convince themselves that their party is still alive are entertaining. They remind mo of the story of two men finding a turtle with its head cut off, still vigorously wagging its tail. One of tho men at length said, "That turtle is dead, but does not yet know that it is dead." It was about the samo time (25th February) that Mr. Kamsay Mac Donald frankly confessed "that at the moment we have struck rather a bad patch." Was Mr. Arthur Henderson equally frank when he told the Trades Union Congress last week that, 'if ho read the signs of the times correctly, "Labour now stands at tho threshold of power and responsibility"? Labour's great win at Halifax was by a minority vote —an advantage which is usually commended by tho Government, and tho gains of both Opposition parties are discounted by-the extraordinary apathy which tho electors are displaying, at any rate in tho South. In Carmarthen

76 per cent, of tho electorate voted, in Holborn 39 per cent., and in Epsom 51 per cent. Hero again the Government's largo majority may bo largely to blame, but, whatever tho cause, apathy is one of the evils that the General Election may bo expected to cure.