Evening Post. THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29, 1925. FATE OF THE PACT

Evening Post, Volume CX, Issue 104, 29 October 1925, Page 6

Evening Post. THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29, 1925. FATE OF THE PACT

" A turning point in history " .and "the light of a new dawn" are two of the phrases with which the settlement reached at Locarno a fortnight ago was greeted by the gratitude of' Europe. But the Security Pact has qnly been initialled ; it has yet to be ratified and signed. So far as Britain is concerned, these processes are mere formalities about which there is not the faintest possibility of trouble; but though Britain's Foreign Minister was the leading figure at Locarno, and, as his colleagues have frankly acknowledged, the success achieved is chiefly due to his patience, tact, and transparent honesty, his role was merely that of peacemaker. It has yet to be seen that the truce which h* succeeded in making between the parties whose secular enmity was the chief cause of the first World War and the probable parent of. another^ will be extended by their second thoughts into a permanent peace. Till then the happy turn that was taken at Locarno cannot be regarded as having carried us past the dangerpoint. The light of the new dawn which was welcomed by " The Times " in a burst of genuine eloquence may be clouded over, and the sun may " from the forlorn world his visage hide," leaving it indeed, as usually, happens in such cases, more forlorn than it was before. For the present to regard the light that shone at Locarno as promises and not performance is the only certain guarantee against bitter disappointment.

Clouds are already discernible on both sides of the frontier which it is the primary object of the Locarno Pact to secure against disturbance by either of the parties. The Die-hards of both countries, backedj of course, in both cases by the Communists whose aim it is, in impartial disregard of international boundaries, to usher in the millennium by promoting strife and bloodshed, disorder and misery, to the utmost extent of their power, are, of course, on the war-path. The German Jingoes are sure that France is getting too much by the Pact, but their oppositiou, which was at first expected to be fatal to the whole Cabinet, has so far accomplished no more than enforcing the resignations of its three Nationalist members. The escape of the Cabinet from the complete wreck contemplated by the Nationalists is something to be thankful for. The hope that they have now shot their bolt is encouraged by the fact that a caucus of the party, held apparently on the day after the resignations, was attended by ouly 60 of its total' strength of "ill, "IE the trumpet give an uncertain sound, who shall prepare himself to the battle?" If nearly half the Nationalist army prefers to remain in the trenches instead of going over the top when the zero hour arrives, its chances of success seem no brighter than were those of Germany's national army in France seven years ago. In October, 1018, it is worth noting, the German army was still undivided, and still had Hindenburg and Ludendorff at its head. In the political fight that is now raging Ludendorff is still prepared to die in the last ditch, but Hindenburg, who vowed when he took over the Presidency six months ago that he would lie true to the, .■Republic and has consistently " played the game ever since," lias not shrunk from giving his blessing to the Pact.

The position in Germany, therefore, though by no means Tree from, danger, is very far from desperate, and, contrary to expectation, tin: centre o[ anxiety has been transferred In France, tilrangc and sudden indeed lias been I Jin I urn of fortune's wheel! Hardly ». week- h:ld piisfiril sinnv .ike uiuUwiiyikiUaiy.yji.uj,

before the French Government was fighting for its life, and just a clear week after the equally enthusiastic reception' of Mr. and Mrs. Chamberlain in Paris it had resigned. Fate has now given to the thoroughly sincere and wellmerited compliments paid by M. Briand to Dr. Stresemann at Locarno' quite an ironical turn. At the close of the Conference M. Briand said he

would be ■ lacking in the spirit of justice if he failed to salute the act of courage in 'which lay the origin of the Conference—Dr. Stresemann's memor..•indiim io the French Government on the 9lh February.

Dr. Stresemann's speech at Karlsruhe shows that the courage with which he set out on this great enterprise is not failing him in the final stage. On the other hand, M. Briand and his .colleagues have not had the strength to carry through their part of the undertaking. M. Briand may be excused if he begins to feel superstitious, about these international Conferences. He was recalled from Cannes to face the crisis which resulted in M. Poincare's taking the Premiership in his stead. From his triumph at Locarno he has now returned to meet a similar disaster. Fortunately, ie is not the Pact that has compelled the French Cabinet to resign, but the fall of the franc and o trouble .which at Locarno can have been but a cloud on the horizon no bigger than a man's hand. The full meaning of the disastrous news from Damascus can only be guessed at present, but even if the result should be to bring M. Poincare back into power, it seems safe to prophesy that he will be in no mood to add to the perils of Syria and Morocco another of the first magnitude across the Bhmc.