Evening Post. SATURDAY, MAY 26, 1923. WATCHFUL WAITING

Evening Post, Volume CV, Issue 124, 26 May 1923, Page 6

Evening Post. SATURDAY, MAY 26, 1923. WATCHFUL WAITING

Germany and France are watching the Cabinet/changes in Britain with an interest almost as great as that of the British public. France was not lavish with praise of Mr. Bonar Law when he was in office. His policy of patient waiting did not then appeal to that section of French opinion which desired strong support of the occupation adventure. But when Mr. Bonar Law retired his French critics realised that a change from.the policy of neutrality might possibly be to their disadvantage. A more active policy might be initiated — against them. With the possibility of losing the man whom they had come to regard as King Log, they remembered the fable and waited anxiously to see if the new Prime Minister would, bear any resemblance to King Stork. No doubt the rebuke which Mr. Baldwin administered to France for her hasty rejection of the German Note was at this time remembered. When the choice of Mr. Baldwin was announced the French Press hastened to affirm its belief that the new Prime Minister would follow the prudent policy of his predecessor, and that he, no less than Mr. Bonar Law, would be disposed to maintain the alliance with France. It is significant that, in spite of French criticism of British policy in the past, all that is now hoped for is a continuance of that policy. M. Poincare and Mr. Baldwin have exchanged cordial messages and assurances of friendship, but the wording of these messages gives no hint of future action.

i Germany does not appear pleased with, the change. According to the opinions that'have been published, high hopes are not entertained of any benefit accruing to Germany. Lord Curzon would have been welcomed as Prime Minister, said one high official ; but th© rest of the meesage suggested that his promotion was not so much desired as his retirement from the Foreign Secretaryship, so as to leave the way clear for Lord Robert Cecil, who might help Germany to enter the League of Nations. From' Mr. Baldwin there can be little expectation- of encouragement of action along, League lines. But at least one paper, the " Boersen Zeitung," of Berlin, has faintly ventured the hope that Mr. Baldwin, being closely associated with business and banking, will act in accordance with the logic and necessities of the economic world (meaning as those necessities are interpreted in Berlin). What ground there is for this hope it is not easy to see. Mr. Bonar Law was a business man and thoroughly conversant with the economic aspects of the Ruhr embroglio ; but he could not escape the force of facts in foreign policy. Mr. Baldwin will be faced with the same difficulty. He has a reputation for directness, and he may be able to break down French opposition to modification of Euhr policy. Much will depend upon the time and the circumstances, which may be more favourable to him than they were to Mr. Bonar Law.

It certainly does appear that circumstances, which fought against Mr. Bonar Law, may be on the side of Mr. Baldwin. The French have had time now to realise the full effect of the occupation. If public opinion at the start supported that adventure in the.hope of collecting reparations, that hope must now be dispelled. Security, and not payments, is now stated to be France's chief aim. We have referred lately to the fact that Belgium and France, though acting in concert, were not in perfect accord. It was reported on Monday that Belgium had communicated with France upon the necessity of maintaining Allied unity in considering reparations. This communication has now been followed up by a public declaration by the Belgian Premier, M. Theunis, which can lead to 'nothing short of a reconsideration of Franco-Belgian policy. "We have been living in a fool's paradise regarding German reparations (he has stated). The time has now come when we must ourselves bear the burdens of which Germany will relieve us only in the most distant future." ' Hitherto Franc© has sounded the keynote for the Franco-Belgian duet, but Belgium is now raising her voice. It is possible that under these circumstances the opportunity for effective Anglo-American intervention may present itself. Mr. Baldwin is favourably known to America, and he may succeed in arranging joint action. Admittedly, the prospects are not bright, but the outlook is certainly no worse than it was during the latter part of Mr. Bonar Law's Premiership. A new Prime Minister, with new hope and new determination, may induce the Powers in conflict to view the problem in a new light