THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCVI, Issue 14, 16 July 1918, Page 6

THE WAR

A new German offensive has begun. At the time of writing, only the first bare announcements are available. They^ state that the attack covers a fifty-mile front, eastward from Chateau Thierry (on the Marne, thirty miles west-south-west of Reims), and it is also stated that the battle affects the Argonne Forest sector, forty miles east 1 of Reims. Beyond these reports there is nothing by which to locate the offeusive within exact limits. But it appears to be definite that the Germans have .specially attacked the Americans in the region of Chateau Thierry, and have in that neighbourhood forced the passage of the Marne. If the fresh heavy blow was launched against them, the procedure is in accordance with German methods of 6triking at a junction of the Allied forces for preference ; but in the present' state of the news no conclusion can be drawn on this point; If it is correct that the offensive has broken out in the Argonne as well, it may be suggested that the enemy's general scheme is to bite out the whole of the present Champagne front by means of two wedges. One of these, reaching to the Marne,, is already in existence, and has only to be advanced; the other would be the result of a successful drive southward in the Argonne .region ; and this would have the important effect of threatening Verdun with encirclement. It is to be noted that the previous German drive to the Marne resulted in crippling the Paris-Chalons railway, co that the Champagne front between Eeims and the Argonne is markedly weaker than it was before June.

The most notable fact about the new offensive is that it comes in a quarter that has not been referred to in any of the recent anticipatory messages. References to the coming battles generally located them on the sectors held by the British, and the probabilities, as frequently set out in these notes, all pointed to that region. The Germans have once more belied the prophets. According to Mr. Frank Simonds, the French General Staff, prior to the March offensive,- expected the enemy's big attack to be sent against the French in the neighbourhood of Reims; but that front was then left severely alone. Once the British front had been broken and Amiens was so nearly approached that a few miles further advance would put the whole, front to the north in jeopardy, simple strategic considerations showed that further enemy efforts must be aimed, directly or indirectly,! at the same tender point. The fact that the next great effort was made on the Marne and*reached to the Aisne did not depart from this theory, because that attack probably aimed almost solely at forcing the Allies to greatly weaken the guard on the Amiens front. In that object it' failed. This failure suggested that the Germans, forced to economise their man-power as much as possible, would probably renew the attack on the British communications more directly. ■They have, in fact, chosen again the indirect method. It is important to recognise that, so long as purely military considerations govern the Allied methods, a German offensive on the ground now attacked, is not necessarily dangerous. There is plenty of room lor elasticity; but the vital Amiens front gives practically no room for movement, and defence there must ibe rigid. The sea is too close behind the front to permit any more territory to be abandoned. Further news will reveal whether the present battle represents_ the real German effort for the time being or whether, it is an elaborate feint. The present reports make it too extensive, however, for a feint.