FUTURE OF TRADE

Evening Post, Volume XCV, Issue 117, 17 May 1918, Page 7

FUTURE OF TRADE

A GERMAN'S PESSIMISM

Dr. Meersmann, a very eminent authority, on German economics, has written an interesting pamphlet, entitled, "The Outcome of the War and German Industry." The main interest of the pamphlet lies in the fact that Meersnlann, who has Hitherto, been" identified with tkc cheerful Pari^German view of the future of economic Germany, . has executed a complete volte fa.cc, and now discovers that cheerfulness about the future, is misplaced, and that there is rat/her room lor the gravest anxiety. Economic success, he says, is tho foundation on which a. Great Power is "built, and the future of Germany as a Great Power depends absolutely on lier success in developing and rebuilding her industries.

Before the war, says'.Dr. Meersmanu, Germany found the means to pay for her imports in her valuable exports of finished products, in Nher -world-embracing shipping, her insurances, and her foreign investments. But ill the course of the war this state of affairs has completely altered. There are no. receipts now from shipping, no insurances, no foreign investments, and the value of the exports to neutral States is too small to be considered. The minus against Germany it is impossible to make good by tho export "of gold, and the result is the. sinking of the exchange which rri'ust have cost Germany milliards of marks. ■

The.author expresses anxiety with regard to the possibility of sales in foreign Markets. England, with remarkable consistency, her Allies also, ho says, has pursued the policy of endeavouring to crusli the" economic power of Germany. She carried on this method for years before the war, and it is. clear from the conclusions of the Paris.Economic Conference, that all the enemy States have pledged themselves after the- war to follow tho policy which will, make all German enterprise impossible, and to render futile all' Germany's efforts to regain. a footing in foreign markets. Even though it were possible, to compel the enemies of Germany to relinquish this hostile attitude, the aversion from Germany - of. foreign countries would remain, and would be a formidable hindrance to German effort. Tho author regards it as a dangerous and stupid belief that a- so-, called understanding at the peace negotiations' would break down the repulsion of foreign peoples to" Germany, and make, them inclined to open'their doors or display a disposition to re-enter on the old relations. Germany, after the war, will be confronted with a new world. Her cost of production will be greatly increased, wages' will be double or treble the old rates. It is the same in other States, but other States are more favourably situated with regard to raw material. This is the great "and perplexing question of the future—the question of the creation of new economic possibilities. "We must have large, extending, and ever-increasine economic elbowroom. Our population is increasing. The increase is 12 per cent, against England's. 10.3 per cent., and France's 1.5. England claims one-fifth of the surface of the earth, notwithstanding, its limited population, and sterile France owns an Empire which is double that of the entire economic field of action of the Central Powers!"

'In Anew of this alarming situation, Meersmann sees no other course for Germany than tho extension of ,her political power. If Germany's, flabby statesmen could only rid'their ikinds of empty formulas like "No annexations and no indemnities," and pursue a trenchant and German policy, they would remove much from the path of their country which otherwise threatens.- serious menace. "Our merchants and- industrial captains must seriously consider a situation on which the entire-, future of tho nation depends. If we allow our existence to be subjected to hampering restrictions, the entire nation is confronted with a- sorrowful future."