THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCIV, Issue 68, 18 September 1917, Page 6

THE WAR

A "submarine scare" is in full sway in portions of the United States, due> it would seem, to Certain unofficial stories about enemy vessels having been sighted in the Western Atlantic, and probablyencouraged by wild estimates of their size and power. Why the arrival of submarines off the American coast should occasion surprise or even a scare is a puzzle; the people ought to have been wondering 'rather why they were not long ago favoured with a visit from thesft unpleasant sea-rangers and an aftei-math of losses by mines dropped in the routes of shipping. The iny&terious way in which the U-boats move their wonders to perform seems still to occasion, an extraordinary lack of balance in popular opinion about them. It flies from extreme to extreme, and is apt now and then to reach conclusions that would only be merited if the submarines were not actually subject to the laws of nature and certain well-defined, limitations occasioned by a state of war. The phenomenon is precisely similar to that noticeable in popular opinioh about Germany's man-power. The facts are not kiiown, and cannot all be known; and because of that some people are irrationally and alnlost superstitidusly ready to admit the possibility of the impossiblo in the way of production of reserves; The fact is, of course, that calculations which they have seen falsified were made without allowing for some unknown factor which was material and not at all supernatural. Exaggerated ideas about submarines are diie to the same neglect or ignorance of important data. For instance, when Captain Koenig took the Deutschla-nd across the Atlantic vast numbers of people hailed the cruise as almost miraculous. There was nothing wonderful and nothing even new (except as far as the Deutschlahd was a freighter and not a fighting ship) in the achieveftwnt. As one result of this loose thinking, the public readily accepted the most absurd statements about the carrying capacity of the Deutschland; and so unwittingly fostered one of Germany's aims in sending the boat over the Atlantic.

If German submarines begifi to operatein Anierican Waters they will only be carrying on a campaign which the visit of U53 before the American declaration proved to be possible. „ Freedom to. operate co far away from the home- bases 'may point to certain important developments—the creation of new a-ttd convenient bases or the presence of mother ships (perhaps themselves submarines of the Dentschlanil family), the possession, of much larger U-boats than heretofore, capable of longer •voyages thari wa» practicable for serious warfare. Theimportant question realLy is why Anttrica has 6o far been free of direct military aggression toy Germany. A correct answer to this question would be of the greatest interest. American shipping has ■of course been attacked, in common with the shipping of nil.the rest of the non-German world, but the attacks have been', as far as the available information goes, confined to the accustomed sea Areas and to a limited use of "sabotage. No submarine has thrown sheik into ;ui American tovn. 1, though .there ure 'innumerable ofjpoi'AmiHes to flo so. Xo. tninso have been reported in the American

sea-lanes, though they could easily be laid. And taking the matter ashore, there has been, since the declaration of war by the United States, a remarkable absence of enemy activity, in striking contrast to the misdeeds of German agents during the preceding period of neutrality.

It irould be easy to explain the freedom of the American coasts from enemy raids by saying that the Germans have not Sufficient. submarines for the purpose; but i there is p no reliable evidence to that effect. It is probable that from the time of President Wilson's declaration Germany could at any time have sent submarines across the Atlantic, and could have arranged for their' maintcnancis, if any purpose justifying the trouble and expense would have been served. But if the matter is considered in. company with the position ashore, a. different solution offers itself. America has an enormous German population. It is true that the vast majority of the Germans have openly declared their allegiance to the United States, and that a drastic spy-campaign has probably put most of tha recalcitrants under hatches. But nobody can suppose that America is yet free from pro-Germans,-, or that all the Germans who—have disavowed the "hyphen" have•done so without a, mental reservation. And it is- in these "reservists" that the seed of Germany's rehabilitation in the new world after the war resides. It is no part of Germany's policy (which in respect to the futurs and_to existing moneyed interests in ths United States is one of caution) to inflame public opinion in America more than is necessary. An air of harmlessavess is the only thing likelyl to slacken the public wrath already existing; to' carry on guerrilla tafitics within eyeshot of the American citizen would introduce entirely new enthusiasms into the war efforts of the great republic ; and that is what Germany would like to avoid.

A German report to-day mentions a great development of the artillery duel in Flanders; several times, the message says, it has increased to violent "drumfire"—that intense bombardment in which | the reports of the guns mingle into an uninterrupted, throbbing roar. Such intensities of fire are suspicious to the enemy. They utter threats of sinister hours fy> come; and the longer the period which has passed sin.cc the last great blow fell, the more menacing the sound of the great tumult. From gneat offensives in. the Flanders sectors the' Germans have now rested long enough, to be in daily expectation of another ; and we may shortly have news of one. On other parts of the West front the situation has for some weeks been generally, comparatively quiet. The British have carried out, in the region of EpeHy, a dozen miles north of St. Quentin, a series of small attacks which at one time looked like a serious attempt to disarrange the St. Quentin sector by cutting, the St. Quentin-Cambrai communications ; but they have dwindled. At Lens, the Germans still hold out,« Sand' the situation remains tantalising. There has been, a recrudescence of fighting in the Aisne and Champagne sectors, without important results, and the only other point of interest is around Verdun, where the opposing armies continue the bitter struggle with recurrent Hashes of hard fighting. A singular phenomenon upon which the communiques throw no light is the complete quietude of the whole of the front from the Verdun region to the Swiss frontier. For many months nothing of any note has occurred on that Jong,stretch, ontie punctuated with contests ; and the whole region is, ac far as news goes, one of the quietest in all the theatre* of war. .