THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCIV, Issue 66, 15 September 1917, Page 6

THE WAR

Mr, Warner Allen's figures on Germany's man-power are a useful contribution to public knowledge of the enemy's condition; but they contain some points which are not easy to understand. The existence of a total supply of men between 17 and/45 of fourteen millions is plain enough. This figure is reached by simple calculation. Toe most- extraordinary number quoted by Mr. Allen is 2,000,000 permanently unfit (apart, of oourse, from war casualties). The experienoe in New Zealand, where the physique of the population is certainly no worse than in Germany, is that about two-thirds of the total called up are found, fit.. Yet the Germans •have i only rejected one-seventh of the total, or about one-eixth of those called up. The only conclusion from this amazing statement is that the German physical standard is remarkably lbw. As will be seen from a quotation presently to be made, Mr. Allen's estimate is not unique upon this - point (actually, of course, it is baeed upon information available to many experts). Another very interesting number is that of men'"shortly to be incorporated, " this number being 1,300,000. The total permanent losses, of the, Germans are estimated at ■ about four • millions^ so that if the casualties are averaged it would appear that ait the same rate of wastage the enemy has men available - for reinforcements- for just about another year of war before his army falls below, its present strength of 5£ millions. The statistics given show that altogether 9,450,000 men ha-ve entered the army, and the German admissions show that 5,290,000 men have been put out of action. To restore the existing army to 5i millions, however, necessitates a large reduction in these 'casualties, and this is done by assuming, what is probably near the mark, that about 1,540,000 wounded men have returned to service. This also complies roughly with the Allied estimate of four million permanent casualties.

General de Lacroix, who writes in Le Temps and the Eevue Militaire, made some calculations last June concerning Germany's reserves. He put the number of men called to the colours from August, 1914, to Ist June, 1917, at 13,130,000, from which he deducts 6,940,000 represented as follows: Definite losses 3,600,----000, rejected as unfit 2,200,000, residents (on permission) abroad and wounded undar treatment 1,110,000. General de Lacroix took the German effectives employed on Ist June at the front and in the interior, as numbering 5,435,000, so that the reserves now available could not total more thanf 755,000. He concluded that, the German reserves would be foundinsufficient if the .AlHes showed ah activity on all fronts equal to that displayed last summer and during the past two 'months. The discrepancies between the do Lacroix and the Warner Allen figures are, perhaps, less serious than they appear, because much depends upon the ages within which the calculations are made. Their- agreement on the small number of rejects, is, however,' important and illuminating. ,

Tjie news from Russia is somewhat more circumstantial to-day, but.it is evident that it still does not reflect the situation clearly. ,The issue between Kerensky and Kprniloff is still undecided, and will remain so until one or the other is forced to confess himself beaten. The reports from the front, however, are better than, ever, and indicate a distinct recovery by the Eussians in the direction of Eiga.- . . . .

It \vas reported yesterday, that the United States Secretary for War had announced the successful testing of a new aeroplane motor, powerful, light, and reliable, and worthy to /be called one of\ the achievements of the _ war, This item naturally recalls attention to the great aircraft construction programme of the TJnited States, for which something like'£l2o,ooo,ooo has been voted—enough to buy a ' second-class navy out lock, stock, and barrel. Details of the programme are not available—it is doubtful if they are public in any reliable form—and consequently the prodigious sum voted and the possibilities opened up have encouraged "many writers to .run riot. „ A great many loose statements are current as the result. ' Prophets have rushed into print describing how the enormous air-fleet to bg built, running into many thousands of machines, .will be used ,to overwhelm Germany in a rapid flood of catastrophes; to blow up all her munition factories and railways, to wreck the Kiel Canal and cripple the High Seas Fleet,/and in a phrase'to end the war almost in the twinkling of an eye. When it come 9to the method, these forecasts become lamentably vague. It is necessary, of course, to make every allowance for the possibility of wonderful developments, but' the war has not yet shown ■that cautious opinions on such subjects are apt to be wrong. If America's outOTt of ftwoidttiifis )s "tlie"- weapon -o»,

the Allies, it will be not only a wonderful kchievement; it will be a vast surprise. ■■"■■■.

The American programme represents a very large number of aeroplanes, and a very large number of trained men; and to belittle-the value of either in opposition to the enemy would be not only disloyal to our Allies; it would be absurd. But it must be remembered that the British aerial programme for this year, alone, after the preliminary vast expenditure upon factories and research such as America has yet to provide, is to cost about £115,0U0,000, and produce about 15,000 aeroplanes. The British flying service, from the factory to the enemy's railway .junctions and dock* and dumps, employs nearly half a million people. We know that France and Italy are great airpowers. ' To suppose therefore that the addition of America's projected contribur tion, as now authorised, will bring the Central Powers down in a smother of dust and smoke is as unwise as to suggest on the other'hand that the coming machines will make little difference. Truth, as in so many other cases, lies between the extremes. The Allies have a certain superiority in the air, both material and moral. What its precise value is nobody can say. The arrival of a host of American machines, added to the increased output of the Allies, will imporve that superiority. It will do so by a very large margin if the enemy does not make extraordinary efforts to meet it; whereas if he does, it will correspondingly weaken him in other directions. A man cannot build aerpplanes; and make shells at the same time; nor can he stand to in a trench and fly aloft at the same moment. ' America may be regarded as representing at the present moment the Allies' strategic reserve, which they can utilise in any way and in any theatre they think' proper. Wherever the reserves go, they will occupy or beat some part of the enemy. Bart of this reserve will undoubtedly go, and very uselully, into aeroplanes.. At this stage it is the purest guesswork to say whether tho#e aeroplanes will take photographs over the trenches or blow up Potsdam.

:To revert to Mt. Baber's announcement about the aero-engine. Motors 'for aeroplanes have been one of America's weak points. Because a . country can produce wonderfully, numerous automo-' bile engines is no guarantee that it can make one good aeroplane motor, for the two engines differ enormously. A car engine, for instance, weighs eight or ten times as much as a good aero-engine oi the same power. America's comparative backwardness in this matter is not really of great importance. The problem is in essence one of design and the selection of materials; and tlie United! States has all the experience of the Allies to go upon. It is a fact that Britain, now a wonderful producer of aircraft, had scarcely produced an allBritish aero-engine when the'war broke out. ■ The most popular design then was French; and the best, beyond all question, was German. It is, however, typical of the energy and resourcefulness of the American people that their specialists should jb&ve developed an engine which will worthily represent the country. If the message published yesterday tells the plain" truth, and a motor at once light enough per horse-power for effective use in flying and able to stand a five-day non-stop test has been built, these engineers and inventors have something to be proud of.