THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCIII, Issue 130, 1 June 1917, Page 6

THE WAR

The Kaiser's half-hearted reference, in his address to the German armies on the West front, to the continued exertions of the submarines against the Allies' food transport, showed no signs of being inspired by a high estimate of their success. As a matter of fact, it mast be patent now to the Germans who have any knowledge of the subject at all, that once more the "sharpest weapon" has proved not sharp enough. It has caused a vast amount oi incqntenience, which has been sorely felt not only by Germany's enemies, but by every neutral nation. It is not going too far to say that it even gave Britain something of a fright; but it lias neither frightened her nor starved her out of the war yet; it has not checked the splendid energies of the seafaring community, who after all are the people mos.t closely and painfully affected; and every day the intensity of the danger seems to be less. There has been a certain degree of pinching in Britain, but it ia most unlikely that it has approached the condition in which Germany has existed for a longl time without. giving way. The shortage of tonnage was, for immediate requirements, considerably reduced by cutting off enormous quantities of imports of such things _as are not vital to the nation—unessential raw materials, luxurious foodstuffs, fancy clothing, and so on, and using the shipping space for more necessary commodities. Other extensive savings, as Mr. Lloyd George explained at the end of April, are being effected by obtaining larger amounts of metal ores and timber from the mines and forests of Great Britain. This will in some cases involve the destruction of historic landscapes, but they are being sacrificed in the best possible cause. It is possible that there is still an additional margin of tonnage which, if necessity arose, the military authorities cpald do without, and still not jeopardise their work abroad very seriously.

The crisis, if we may jud^e by tha Utterances of the day, is passing rapidly Not only are the submarines being abolished more speedily than before by new apparatus and new tactics, but tho output of mercantile tonnage is increasing, and before long should show a sharp rise in the rate of increase. Another important factor is the coming harvest in Britain. For the first timo in the war, the nation has been forcea into the position of having to spin out it» supplies until the new harvest comes in; and very drastic official warnings have been made as to the urgency of this economy But just as the German harvest comes to the relief of Germany, «o the British will inevitably come too, in three or four months; and it is expected to be bigger than last year's. The Premier has assured the country that the arrangements made for increasing the area under crop will ensure a sufficient native food supply in 1918, quite apart from the increased amount of shipping expected by them; so that the submarines, if they are to succeed at all, must succeed within the next three months or thereabouts.

To-day's cablegrams contain the statement that, owing to Germany's realisation of the failure of the submarines, the campaign may not be carried beyond the summer. That does not mean, of course, that submarines will cease to operate against shipping; merely that Germany will stop seriously trying to starve out the British by a campaign having that object. ft ie not unlikely, indeed, that in that respect the campaign is no longer being pressed. Even as long ago as April it was being said in Germany, Recording to American comments, that the real object of the submarine efforts was not to starve the British, but to compel theni to withdraw tonnage lent to Russia and Italy, and so bring them more into a frame of mind to conclude peace. But as the "starvation" theory was so thoroughly drilled into the German people, it is difficult to see how such a change of face can be construed as anything but a confession of failure.

The weekly report of shipping losses by mine and torpedo shows that the number of large vessels,sunk wae the same last week as in the preceding period—lß ; only one vessel under 1600 tons was sunk, as against nine; the vessels unsuccessfully attacked were 17, a« against nine, so that the total number of attacks was 36, the same as in the previous week. In addition, two fishing vessels (one less than the previous week) were destroyed. The number of arrivals and departures show* a slight increase. The figures, as showing a decrease in the number of vessels attacked, are satisfactory; and the number of attacks confirms the impression that the U-boats are.working at a fairly fixed average rate. There is no sign, in the table, of any notable effect on their activities of the new defensive measures, but there is no certainty that the effect will show rapidly. One thing has been notable throughout the campaign,- even at its crisis; and that is the really small number of vessels attacked per week. The'highest -weekly number of attacks recorded was 96, a month ago ; an average of 14 a day; and if we assume that only forty or fifty submarines were "out" at that time, it is evident that most of them spent a dull week, as far as catcftfng shipping went. The wonder is, with' so many vessels to attack, the weekly toll, serious as it is, is not far greater.

"The war is in its laat phase," said Mr. A. J. Balfour at the Canadian Club in Montreal; and this sentence is worthy of attention. Ten days ago Mr. Bonar Law created a sensation by saying that the long night of sorrow and anguish which is desolating the world is drawing to a close. About the same time, reports came from the enemy couKrfcries of serious disturbances and ot ■pacifist movements in greater intensity than usual; and since then Austria has shown signs of a more serious crisis than she has previously experienced during the war. A comprehensive view of the situation leads to the conclusion that ithe enemy Powers are at last showing marked symptoms, of being worn out; and we are able to suppose that the occasional outbursts of German, newspapers, confessing that the war is lost, are not meant wholly to deceive the world outside Germany. Such a frantic demand as that of the Mayence branch of the Pan-German League for the ajmexation of the- whole British Empire is, of course, one of the rare jokes that crop np at the most inopportune moments. Xlie Mayence PanGermans were possibly deliberately sarcastic.

The perplexing question is what la the nature of this last 1 phase of the war; how is the dark {light to he ended? A few months ago, wifch the memories of the Sonime, Bmsiloff's great attacks, this Italian capture of Gonssis, and the wamlerfui French recovery »t Verdun

irasa m mina, j.hai ueiu oui, promise of overwhelming military successes. But so far only a false dawn lias lit the sky. Russia, whose role was essential to the anticipated drama, has missed her cue; and the play lags. There is no deeper mystery in the war to-day th*n whether the Russian armies will recover and strike again for the liberty of Europe, whether their inaction will force the rest of the Allies to recast their whole scheme of war aims, or whether, failing Russia, they will wait till the new American partner is ready to take up the unfinished task, possibly with Japan as a. powerful assistant. It seems that, if the enemy will only make peaco when he is decisively beaten in, the field, the night must last a long time yet. But there has always been in view the ending of the war by sheer exhaustion. There are some who, as soon as they see or hear the word attrition, lose patience and declaim that the war. will certainly be ended in more heroic fashion. Yet attrition is the essence of war, for if it played no part a great -war might never end. *> far the whole of the Allied efforts have expended themselves on the attrition, the wearing down, of the enemy; and there was never much prospect of the much-discussed " final blow " until the Germanic Powers' forces had been reduced so far that the blow could be got home. That stage has not yet been reached. It approaches, none the less. Along with it comes another clement —that of conviction in the enemy's mind that the war is lost; and this idea, necessarily fluctuating with every true or false report of events, may gain or lose on the actual military situation. It is impossible to say in which way the Central Powers will collapse, sis in the end they must. But it does seem probable that, sooner than face the complete surrender which a\ complete military defeat would mean, Germany would deliberately allow her conviction of failure to have rein. The utter defeat of her armies would m"can punishments just as severe as the Allies chose to inflict. Surrender before defeat permits of bargaining for term*. It is certain , that. Britain and France will not readily yield to altruistia ideals that only operate in favour of Germany ; but a timely confession of failure, a convincing display of remorse, and practical recompense for the evil that has been wrought, would undoubtedly profit the enemy group in the end. Gorman writers seem already to be. grasping at the straw which ths Russian Socialists have, perhaps inadvertently, sent floating towards them. They say they are ready for peace without annexations; and if the German Government takes up that attitude it is some way along the road to peace. But we still have to hear what Britain and France havo to say in reply to the Russian formula, and? what view the United States really takes of what Germany has merited of the world.