THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCI, Issue 112, 12 May 1916, Page 6

THE WAR

The estimation of German, losses, or of any other country's losses, involves calculations too lengthy for this column, but there is space. to give the totals estimated by Mr. Hilaire Belloc, in comparison with ihe. German official totals contained in a cablegram published yesterday. Several of the leading English writers consider Mr. Belloc's estimates too high, but his reasoned defence of them commands respect. Mr. Belloc estimates the permanent Josses of the Germans, up to the end of last year (31st December, 1915), at 3,650,000. The official German casualties for a longer period—including the issued lists up to the end of^ April—are 2,832,079- That is to say, according to the Gorman official casualty lists, the total casualties (nob permanent losses) of Germany for the longer period are 818,000 less than for Mr. Belloc's shorter period.

For comparison purposes it may be as well to give the details of these rival sets of figures. Here are Mr. Belloc's:— Dead ... 1,000,000 Prisoners 250.000 Permanently disabled wounded 1,600J000 Permanently disabled sick ... 600,000 Floating balance of wounded and sick , 200,000 Total permanent losses ... 3.650,000 And the details of the total German casualty lists to April (vide yesterday's cablegram) are as follows: — Dead >„ 705,877 Missing and prisoners ... 344,892 Wounded • ... „, r ... 1,781,310 Total ... „.- •... 2,832,079 As a. great proportion of wounded return to the colours, a total of permanent losses compiled from the above German figures would be much less than the aggregate of 2,832,079. So the gap between the German official casualty lists and Mr. Belloc's figures is immense. ■'

It is not certain that 'Mr. Belloc is right, but it is quite certain that the German lists are much below the mark. For one thing, the proportion of dead to wounded in the German list is too small, and this proves that the number of the wounded is under-stated. This remark would be true if the dead in the German list all appeared opposite the word "dead." But they do not; and when the dead hidden behind thel word "missing" are added, the disproportion between dead and wounded is all the more obvious.' ,-Mr. Belloc shows, by a very simple deductive process, that the .German list totals up to 31st January last included 651,768 dead, and a number of missing which must have included at least another 160,000 dead. If the German totals up to 31st January had 160,000 dead labelled as missing, that number of disguised dead could not have dwindled since then; it must have increased. Suppose, however, we take it still at the same figure, 160,000. Add 160,000 (taken out of "missing") to the "dead" in the German list (705.877), and we have a total of 865,877 dead. That is to say, nearly half the wounded. But experience shows that wounded, in relation to dead, stand in a higher ratio than two to one.

In dealing with the German lists to 31st January Mr. Belloc exposes this same fraud. Taking a period including the Champagne offensive, he shows that the German proportion of wounded to dead, according to the German lists, is 17 to 10, A proportion of that sort is, he says, impossible : "If we take the corresponding figures for the French and for the English at the same moment, we get on the average 45 wounded for 10, killed." So the total of German wounded in the above German list is clearly under-stated. Perhaps the Germans will admit (after the war) that they left out the lesser wounds. But to call such a figure a total of wounded is . simply to lie. No reliance can be placed on such a casualty list.

Coming to the German official monthly list, it is seen (vide yesterday's cablegram) that Germany published in April casualty lists totalling 91,262. On 19th February was begun the Verdun offensive, for the first three weeks of which the French estimated the German casualties at not less than 200,000; and that offensive lasted at high pressure right through March and April, and still continues. Therefore, the XJerman casualties for either March or April must be vastly in excess of the 91,262 stated above. But Germany, when she publishes casualty lists in April, does not say that they cover the casualties for April. They may nob even cover the casualties for March. They may merely record casualties three months old. Going on past experience, Mr. Belloc says the. average delay in publishing casualties in the German lists is "six weeks or a little over." As regard these "April" lists, it is probably " a little over." The 91,262. if it is anything like a genuine figure, cannot even include that last week in February, when the carnage before Verdun was so heavy. To say that itcovers as much as one fortnight of the Verdun offensive would be an evident exaggeration. The German lists are far behind time, and, taken at any point of time, they are obviously false.

As published figures of casualties can be made to lie,; it is \vell_ to look for corroborative evidence. A nation nearing the exhaustion of her man-power dips more and'more into the reserve of youth —goes lower and lower below the agelimit of 20. How tio G-enna-uy. Austria, and France compare in this respect? According to Mr. Belloc, the young men who are twenty this year have been called up in all three countries; but while France lias not put them into the field, Germany has put a part, of them into the. field, and Austria (hard pressed for men) has put a great part, of them into the iißkl., With regard Vo the >"oung i mea.. u*lw --will ha ■ twenty cast .year

(sometimes called the 1917 class, and sometimes the 1897 class, according to whether the allusion is to birth or to twentieth year), Mr. Belloc says that France has called them up for lengthy training; Germany has warned them for service; and Austria lias called them all up. Compare this with what Colonel Repington says. "Germany," he states, "recruits her men at eighteen years of age, but does not compel them to fight before they are twenty. Many German youths are serving as volunteers. Though I have examined many German prisoners, I have seen none under twenty."

The suggestion made by Colonel Repington is that if men under twenty— that is, men of the 1917 class, or of the 1918 class, or even of the 1919 classare fighting in tho German ranks, they are doing so as volunteers. But Mr. Belloc definitely differs with him on this point. He states that in France "a

certain number of prisoners (a few, it is true) have been taken belonging to tho class 1917, and that is an omen which no one can overlook. The prisoners were not volunteers, they were regularly enrolled." The dispute between these two eminent gentlemen must be left to themselves; it is a question of fact. But before quitting the subject it is worth noting that, according to Amsterdam, the Verdun losses have caused Germany to enlist even the seventeen-year-olds, the 1919 class.

The steel-helmeted Anzacs seem to consider the German heavy artillery » lesser irritation than the Turkish sniper ; but it will be impossible to measure comparative effects till the casualty lists come along. All the fine things that are just now being said of Anzac prowess are pleasant reading; still, it is impossible to "lull Krugar with your mouth/ and the Anzacs probably value newspaper appreciations at something less than their admirers do. Meanwhile, to be a domestic asset in a comfortable billet is certainly nicer than to .spend all your time, including " rests,'/ within the field of fire of Turkish snipers and big guns.

The German Humanity League and the pacifist press are right enough in the right place, but the persistence of peace feelers from Germany—at a moment when military compulsion in the British Empire hangs in the balance—has its suspicious features. It is said that the Kaiser, iE he cannot secure the mediation of President Wilson, will enlist King Alfonso of Spain. King Alfonso married an English princess, but English princesses do not attach their foreign husbands to London in. the wa,y that German princesses yoke theiv Royal spouses to Berlin. By matrimonial Jinks, the Hohenzollerns have established solid interests in half the small Courts of .Europe. Would the Entento dream of asking the Kaiser's brother-in-law, King- Constantino of Greece, to mediate between the Entente and Germany ? But the Kaiser seems to be quite prepared to enlist the services of Alfonso, and (according to report) has benefited by them already.

The Daily Mail has been attempting to fix irreducible peace terms. Evacuation of all Entente territory goes without saying. In addition, the surrender of Alsace-Lorraine to France is demanded ; also an indemnity for damage— which would be quite a different thing from the victor's indemnity Germany extorted from France in 1871. Again, the German Fleet must not remain "at its full strength." This suggests a naval compromise along the line of a proportionate limitation of armaments. The whole of Europe must now recognise that a Germany superior on sea, as well as on land would mean disaster. jS'o word is uttered about .the destiny of the captured German' colonies, in which Australasia and British Africa are vitally interested.

Le Matin publishes a story of Verdun which conflicts with the version that has gained a large currency in England. This current version treats the French withdrawals east (and later west) of the Meuse as an exhibition of warlike art calculated to cause the attacking enemy a maximum loss at a minimum cost to the defender. Le Matin imparts a different complexion, suggestive of that muddlement which some people insist is peculiarly English. The question is much too big to treat in1 the space now at command. To come down to recent events, the French defence of the Avocourt, Hill 304, Mort Horame height (west of the Meuse) and of the Douau-mont-Vaux heights (east of the Meuse) seems to have stood firm throughout the latest prolonged spasm of intense attack. Eastward and southward from Vaux is the Plain of the Woeuvre, which is swampy, and which offered the Germans poor manoeuvring opportunities during the wet season. German attacks over the Woeuvre were obliged to stick to the few roads; and the guns on the Meuse heights and the French- aircraft paid marked attention, to the road junctions, particularly Etain, which, besides being a road junction, is on the VerdunMetz railway. With drier weather, the Germans should be able- to make better use of the'Woeuvre; and it is probably with good reason'that the French aeroplanes have (according to to-day's advices) again bombed Etain. They also attacked the enemy communications at Damvi'lers, 'north of Verdun.

Much importance attaches to the Russian advance from Persia into Asiatic Turkey, along the Hamadan-Kermashah-Khanikin-Bagdad road. Kasri Shirin, which the Eussians claim to have occupied, is on the Turkish side of the boundary, about a hundred miles from Bagdad. It is not clear whether the occupation has been effected in force or by a Cossack patrol. The story of booty suggests the larger reading of the message. In any case, the advancers important. Three months earlier, it"might have saved Townshend's garrison. '