LOW BIRTH RATE

Evening Post, Volume LXXXVII, Issue 117, 19 May 1914, Page 10

LOW BIRTH RATE

SIGN OF NATIONAL PROGRESS SOME STARTLING CONCLUSIONS CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIA AND NEW, ZEALAND. "When we are considering the growth of population, it is not the births, but the survivals, which count. It is a remarkable fact that comparatively few of those who have made strong remarks on the birth rate question eeem to have realised, this. The child who perishes before entering on a productive existence is not an asset to the numbers or the efficiency of tho community, but a drain upon it for which there is no compensating gain." Starting from this premise, which on the face of it is incontrovertible, Mr. ■ C. Vi Drysdale, D.Sc, arrived at eorne unconventional conclusions in 'his address on tho "Empire and the Birth Rate," which lie delivered at a, meeting of the Royal Colonial Institute in London recently. He supplied figures and diagrams to support Jiis view, that all the lamentations heard in various countries on the declining birth rate are due to misapprehension and ignorance of what a decline in the birth rate- means to a community. It means, in the first place, according ' to Mr. Drysdale, a lower infant mortality, so that it easily happens that a country with, a low birth rate actually increases in population at arelatively faster Tate than a country, with a high birth rate. "There is no such thing as a country with a high birth rate and a low death rate." Mr. Drysdale told an interviewer. "High birth rates simply mean high death rates — 'this is a practically constant law, In Russia, which has the highest birth rate in Europe, only one baby in every four lives to be a year old." HIGHER STANDARD IN PHYSIQUE. Mr. Drysdale believes that a low birth rate results in a higher standard in the physique and well-being of a nation, because the future of the child depends on the amount of nourishing food it obtains. A poor man with a large family cannot supply hiri children with adequate food, and therefore among the poor, where the birth rate ie always higher than it is among other classes, there is a high rate of infant, mortality, and many of the children who grow up are physically unfit to perform efficiently the duties of life. "As far as the British Empire is concerned," said Mr. Drysdale to hie interviewer, "we find that in Australia and New Zealand, where the belief in small families is most prevalent, the population is increasing fast, the physique of the people is improving, and they have none of the social evils to fight which prevail here. I believe that in five 'or 1 six years' time, if the poorer classes in England were encouraged to limit their families, we could clear the country of destitution amd the worst isocial evils, 'ff the birth rate among the poorer classes "were lower, the economic pressure on the upper and middle classes would be less,' there would be more marriages, and the race would be recruited from the right instead of the wrong end." ,"GOOD FOR THE NATION." Mr. Drysdale. in his address before the Royal Colonial Institute, dealt in detail with the conditions in England, ! Ireland, Australasia, Canada, South Africa, and India, and in each of them he found evidence to support his view that a decline in the birth rate is good for a nation, because it is followed by a decline in the infant mortality, whereas a high birth rate results in populating the graveyards instead of the country. Speaking of Australasia, he said :-— "Australia and New Zealand both call for particular attention, as family limitation appears to be very general in them, and ma.ny authorities have spoken about it in strong torms. Mr. Roosevelt, for' example, wrote as follows in 1911 : — ' The rate of natural increase in New Zealand is actually lower than in Great Britain, and has tended steadily to decrease ; while Australia increases so slowly that, even if the present rate were maintained, the population would not double itself in the next century.' Again, the Bishop of London last year appears to haVe told the North-West Australian Diocesan Association that the birth-rate in' Australia is going down, even more rapidly than at Home (United Kingdom), and that he did not know how we are going to keep Australia even British.' In addition to these grave warnings, fears have been continually expressed concerning the danger of Australia from the Japanese or Chinese. Wo are told that from the industrial point of view Australia is calling out for population, and a law giving a bonus of JDS for each child was passed a twelvemonth ago. It would appear, therefore, that the birth-rate question is a very serious one in Australa-sia, especially when we are aware that determined attempts at checking the sources of family limitation have signally failed. "Let us now examine the actual figures for the variation of the birth rate, etc., and compare them with the above statements. In 'both countries the birth rate fifty years ago was remarkably high, being well over 40 per 1000, and it has. since fallen very rapidly to 26 or 27 per 1000. But in both of them the death rate has fallen somewhat, and they now have the lowest death rates in the world, that of New Zaland having been about 9.5 per 1000 for many years past. So, instead of 'increasing slowly, their rate of natural increase by excess of births over deaths is actually the highest in the world, with the possible exception of Bulgaria. The natural increase of New Zealand during the last five years has been more than 50 per cent, greater than in Great Britain, instead of being less, as stated by Mr. Roosevelt. The natural increase of Australia, is 16 per 1000, which would cause the population to double in forty -four years, or t-> become five times as .large in a century. The Australian birth rate has been well maintained during the past seven years, and the death rate_ has slightly declined, so the natural increase has slightly accelerated. "It will be well at this point, ** continued Mr. Drysdale, "to examine the justification for the yellow peril theory as regards Australia. Japan has certainly moved in the opposite direction to Australia, in having increased its birth rate from 26 to' 33 per 1000. between 1891 and 1910; but its general and infantile mortality has also increased. Thus, its natural increase to-day is only 12.5 per 1000, as against L 6 or 17 per 1000 of Australia and New Zealand, while its actual rate of increase is far short of theirs^ Although the population of Japan is about ten times that of the whole of Australasia, every year makes the proportionate disparity of numbers less instead of greater; while, as regards health', physique, and financial resources, the advantage, of course, lies heavily with our people. That Australasia will be well advised to look to her defences may be granted ,' but there seems no reason whatever to be dissatisfied with tho increase of her population 1 ." INSUFFICIENCY OF FOOD. In concluding his address, Mr. Drysdale eaid^— "l cafinot ihinjs thajtj jiny^

unbiased person will be able to avoid the conclusion that large numbers and national efficiency are not to be secured by a high birth rate, especially in the lower strata of society. High birth rates invariably mean high general and infantile death rates, and when accompanied by humanitarian legislation, a serious process of inversed selection. The explanation of this apparent paradox lies in the fact, which never seems to 'be properly understood, that the population of the world and of nearly all countries is constantly being kept in check by insufficiency of food. A French statistician, M. Hardy, has calculated (and his figures, though challenged by great authorities, have now been accepted) that if the total food production of the world were fairly distributed among its inhabitants the ratio of proteids available for each would only be twothirds of that recognised as necessary for efficiency. Mr. Seebohn Rowntree has shown that large numbers of families in the United Kingdom — the richest country in the world — have deficiencies of protein in their diet by amounts up to 40 per cent., and over 2,500,000 adult male workers have wages of 25s a week or less, upon which, with the present cost of living and rent in towns, it is impossible to bring up more than three children properly. As a result, whenever families are large a considerable proportion of the children die, and of those who survive many grow up stunted and incapable of assimilating a good training. The overcrowding caused by large families with an ever-increas-ing margin for rent is also a potent cause of disease and of immorality — the latter evil being further greatly intensified by the economic difficulties in the way of marriage, _ that are the chief cause of those terrible diseases for which a Royal Commission is now investigating a remedy, ' "That the rate of increase of population of a country depends in almost every caseupon its power of feeding its people by its own or imported food, and not upon its birth rate, is a matter which statesmen will have to recognise; and those who are anxious for the increase of the population of our country and the Empire should turn their attention to the acceleration of the food production, instead of deploring the declining birth rate. No intelligent person will claim that the food producing possibilities of the world are exhausted, but it does appear difficult to increase them at more than a very slow rate (probably at present not more than 6 or 7 per cent, in a decade), and the world's population cannot increase faster than the food does. No shuffling of the incidence of taxation and no ■ humanitarian schemes, can increase our population, except prejudicially, by favouring the increase of the inefficient rather than the efficient. Nor wiE emigration, the panacea of the orthodox Imperialist, solve the problem. We do not want effective producers to leave us, and these are the only people our colonies really desire. Our town bred weaklings are frequently less fitted to succeed in the colonies than at Home. It has been said that 'no empire can survive which is rotten at the core,' and if we persist in the policy of encouraging the excessive reproduction of the poor, or taxing the capable for their support, or keeping about a third of our men and women unmarried, and of seeing many of our best emigrate for want of decent prospects at Home, we need not be surprised if our Imperial efficiency diminishes. On the other hand, if we consider the example of Holland, we may be assured that a further fall in the birth rate among the poorer classes will be accompanied by an immediate and progressive improvement in their conditions, by a checking of the output of physical and mental defectives, and by a- gain in the national efficiency, and probably also in the rate of increase oij our population."