THE OUTLOOK

Evening Post, Volume LXXXIII, Issue 151, 26 June 1912, Page 7

THE OUTLOOK

POLITICAL SITUATION MACKENZIE MINISTRY ON TRIAL PARLIAMENT OPENS TO-MORROW. Parliament will meet to-morrow, wheft the ordinary formalities associated with the commencement of the cession will bo obeerved. It is not anticipated that anything save an Imprest Bill will be dealt with on Friday, and the battle royal which is to determine the fate of the Mackenzie Ministry should be well under way by Tuesday evening. Mr. Massey and his party held a caucus on Monday: evening. As far as can be ascertained their plans for the fight have been carefully arranged. One- thing seems certaiK —the Opposition is apparently very, confident of victory on this occasion. The bitterness engendered by the LiberalLabour caucus has not yet died away, and more than one member who ha« faithfully supported the dominant party, in past years ie reported to be prepared to cast a vote against the preeent Administration. Apart from the feeling discernible after the caucus, the subsequent process of Cabinet-making acted as anything but a palliative. It is aft open secret that there were more officeseekers than portfolios. Whether the bitternees then created will be exemplified in a punitive form when the fatal division is. taken it is difficult, a* i the moment, to say. 'dne factor which has so far been * left oihiost entirely out of the reckoning is "the ex-Prime Minister, Sir Joseph Ward. , The feeling that Sir Joseph Ward is going to take a leading hand in the present crisis was freely mentioned in political circles yesterday. He has succeeded in clothing Ilis intentions with a surprising amount of secrecy, and the mere fact that he suddenly decided to relinquish his appointment to the Imperial Trade Commission is regarded in some quarters as significant. Then there is the High Commifisionerehip. Yesterday Sir Joseph's name was associated with the possibility of an appointment to London. The probability of -Mr. R. M'Kenzi© being sent Home o-s New Zealand's representative is Hot seriously contemplated, but there is onp other gentleman outeide of politics, at. the moment, who is still regarded as a> possibility. Some people believe that the Hon. .T. A. Millar may really be the deciding factor in the general political question. He is reported to command a small following — small in' a numerical sense, but. sufficiently strong to dictate to a Mackenzie or a Massey Cabinet. The exMinister's health has benefited greatly by his stay at Rotorua, and it was rumoured to-day that he may be ia Wellington a couple of days after tb«* opening of Parliament. Certain it kat all evente that he will be here before the division is taken, and that is not likely to eventuate before 10th July, or even; later. Mr. W. H. Herries is not expected to arrive at Auckland before 9th July, and, as every vote is valuable, the Opposition can be expected to keep things going tjll his return. There will bo ample food for discussion, and ib will not be in any sense difficult lo keep the discussion, going over a .period of a couple of weeks, if necessary. The inner circles hold that the situation rests with half a dozen men on the old Liberal side but who are now more or less detached from the party. Tho reasons for this are mainly personal. Such questions as land and Labour appeal' to have been allowed to drop into the background in the meantime. Tho Governor s Speech will most likely contain an allusion to the necessity for increasing the graduated tax, but this and other things will in all likelihood be disregarded, and the battle, as far as it will be waged from the other side of the House, will very probably be directed at the right of the Cabinet to exist at all. When the vote is taken, a careful egtimato by a competent authority indicates that Mr. Massey may win with a total vote of 42 in favour of his no-confidenoo motion. His most likely supporters from the old Ward Party would be; Messrs. E. H. CJark, J. Coates, J. A. Millar, and R. M'Kenzie. Mr. T. K. Sidey and Mr. A. E. Glover havo also been mentioned as possible supporters of the no-confidence motion. With last Febru* ary's experience before one, however, it would be a risky process to definitely attempt to predict at thia stago exactly what will happen. There will be much negotiating during the next week, and on it success or failure for either party will largely hinge. The Premier has not yet indicated whether he proposes to fill the vacant Attorney-Generalship, or whether lie intends to appoint a leader ot the Upper House. This little matter has been a source of trouble in the past, and may be so to a greater extent in the very near future. One careful student of politics estimates that the division will bo as fol-. lows : — Against the Government.— Allen, Anderson, Bell, Bollard, J., Bollard, R. 1'.,. Bradney, Buchanan, Buick, Campbell, Dickson, Efccott, Fisher, Fraeer, Harm, Hordman, Homos, Hine, Hunter, Lang, Let, Malcolm, Mandor, Massey, Newman, A.K., Newman, E.. No&worthy, Okey, Pearco, Pomare, Scott, Smith, F. H., Statham, Sykes, Thomson, O. M., Veitdi, Wilson. Young, Outline, Rhodas, R. H., Clark, Coates, M'Kon■de, Millar. Total, 43. For. • — AUnons Brown, Buddo, Buxton, Carroll, Colvin, Craigio, Dav«y, Dickie, Forbes, Glover, llanan, Hindt marsh, It>itt, Lauronson, M'Callum, Mackenzie, T., Myers, Ngata, Parata, Payne, Poland, Rangihiroa, Reed, Rhodes, T. W., Robertson, Russell, Seddon, Sidey, Smith, R. W., Thomson, J. C, Ward, Witty, Wilford, EU, MacDonald. Total, 3b.