"DRIFTING TO WAR."

Evening Post, Volume LXXVI, Issue 137, 9 December 1908, Page 6

"DRIFTING TO WAR."

The phrase which the Vienna correspondent of The Times finds to describe the situation in Central Europe — his statement that "there is a feeling that Austria is drifting aimlessly but steadily to war" — seems to give an accurate reflex of the fact. It can hardly be the case that either the Kaiser or the Austrian heir-apparent is resolved upon war at present. There is so little to gain, so much to lose, and the conjunction of hostile Powers is too formidable to be faced lightly. But both the potentate on the throne and the potentate behind the throne appear bent upon pressing affairs to the edge of disaster. The farther they go, the more difficulty the peoples behind them will have m receding ; and, once the national honour is felt to be involved, Germany, at least, is not the nation to draw back. M. Isvolsky, the Russian Foreign Minister, has upon his recent tour apparently failed to conciliate the thrones. We regard his "remarkable interview" published in the German press as an appeal to the peoples. It is in effect, like the debates in the Italian Chamber of Deputies, a warning to the German people to pause anr^ take thought of what may be met at the bottom of the precipice to which events are tending. The conversion of the Dual Alliance between France and Russia into a second Triple Alliance with Britain for a partner, will mean the creation of a new obstacle to Pan-Ger-manic plans. M. Isvolsky finds his reason in Asia, where "Japan is ready to assist the allies, and where war unquestionably would mean the end of German colonial aspirations. Even Germany will think twice before accepting such a risk. Yet to recede now is to leave Germany still more obviously in isolation, and smarting under a still greater humiliation. It seems - probable, therefore, that none of the Great Powers will enter willingly upon war; and that if war does come, it will come only because international interests have been twisted in a diplomatic knot which only the sword can release. Or, alternatively, by an appeal to popular passion such as was caused in America by the incident of the Maine; or, again, by an irrepressible outbreak on the part of one of the Balkan States. In the event of a war in which Britain is involved against Germany, what is the Australasian risk? There is none at present calculable — unless by the interception of trade by cruisers from German ports. The risk of a raid exists, it is true, and one or two escaped vessels might do our coastal cities a great deal of harm before they could be captured. But the permanent loss wonld undoubtedly bo Germany's. She would at once be put upon the defence of her Asiatic and Pacific possessions, with the knowledge that defence would be hopeless. Last year almost the entire fighting strength of the German navy was accumulated in home waters, only a single cruiser being stationed in the China seas, with a base in the conceded territory of Kiau-Chau. German New Guinea and the adjacent German islands are defenceless ; and these, with German Samoa, must yield to the first squadron sent to lower their flag. Once passed from German hands, it is questionable whether they would be returned ; and the " botthng-up " oi Germany might become more pronounced than ever. Altogether, it seems that Britain could hardly find a more favourable occasion for fighting, or Germany a worse ; and this is so evident that, unless it comes fortuitously, as suggested,, there is good reason to believe that Avar will not come at all.

Instructions have been given to Dr. Cockayne to make, on behalf of the Government, enquiries into the conditions for plant life on the sand dunes on Crown lands. Dr. Cockayne will also note the extent of the sand-drifts, and make suggestions by which those huge areas may be brought into use. He has made a commencement at Bulls, and will examine the dunes along the coast to the mouth of the Rangitikei River, and then work down U> tho Motvawatu Riv*?4