RAINFALL AND DROUGHT.

Evening Post, Volume LXXIII, Issue 70, 23 March 1907, Page 9

RAINFALL AND DROUGHT.

RECURRENT CYCLES OF YEARS. AN ASTRONOMER'S OBSERVATIONS. "The value of a forecast varies with its futurity" (Egeson) ; or, in tho words of Sir William Hor.>chel, "a probability of a hot Eummer or its contrary would always be of greater consequence than tho expectation of a few fair or rainy days." TO THS EDITOR. g; rj — The following extract from a letter written by the late Mr. H. C. Russell, Government Astronomer of New South Wales, which- appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald of Friday, 10th April, 1903, may prove of interest to some of 3'our readers. — I am, etc., GEORGE HENRY DAVIES. Karori, 25th February, 1907. THE MOON AND THE RAINFALL. (To the Editor of the Herald.) Sir, — The problem of the drought is one to which I have devoted much time and thought, hoping that I might perhaps find some explanation of its, causes, and so enable men to know when periods of drought were approaching, and to prepare for them. In my expectations I think I have been successful, and I append th« result of my work. The year 1903 ie the ninth year of our present drought, which began early in 1895. We have, however, had for tho first three months of the present year a slow and gradual increase of rainfall. In 1904 there will be more rain, and in the following year, 1905, there will be plenty of Tain, probably more than is wanted. It may be asked what basis I have for speaking so positively, and to such a. question I answer that I have found that the moon controls the rain, and I have, to my satisfaction, discovered the manneT of such control. I have records of the rainfall in this State extending ovot 36 years, from 1867 — 1893, and I havo divided this period into four groups. No. I.— When I selected the first group of years, 1867-1875 (inclusive) — nine years — I found Chat cvstv year had abundanco of rain, there being an average rainfall of 29.47 inches, which, it is not necessary to say, is an abundance of rain. No. II. — The next group includes 10 years, 1876 to 1885 (inclusive), and the average annual rainfall was only 21.64 inches — very much below that of No. I. group Such a shortage of rain amounts to a' very severe drought. No. lll.— Turning now to the third group, 1886-1894 (inclusive) — nine years — we find plenty of Tain, an average annual fall of 28-29 inches, every year having an abundant fall except 1888, which was a. severe drought in itelf, the cause of which has not yet been ascertained. Xo. IV. — The last group — 10 years — began in 1895, and will not be over till 1904. Until the end of 1902, the year just passed, the whole time has been a period of severe drought. Three months ot 1903 have already passed, but we have a year and nine months to wait to the end of the period. Meantime, we find these years, 1895 to 1902, eight complete years, with an average Tainfall of only 20.24 inches ; another drought period corresponding to No. 11., also a drought period, which had an average annual rainfall of 21.64 inches. It will be seen that is a close agreement between these two averages, 21.64 inches and 20.24 inches, the latter average being made up from cut incomplete fourth period. The average rainfall, then, for each of the four groups ■of years is as follows. — No. 1., average annual Tainfall for nine J yeans, 29 47 inches ; No. 11-. average annual) rainfall for ten yeaTs, 21.64 inches ; No. 111. averace annual rainfall for- nine years, 28.39 inches; No. IV., average annual rainfall for eight years (incoiMplete), 20.24 inches. Wo 6ee, then, a Temarkable condition ot rainfall in these periods: — No. 1., nine years of plentiful rain ; No. 11., ten years of drought ; No. 111., nine years of plentiful rain 5 No. IV., eight years (two years short, incomplete), of drought. In considering this mntter I cam.? to the conclusion that there must be.aome foTce that divides theee periods of plentiful rain and of drought m this way, 'and I found that when the moon'o course is to the southward in this hemisphere much more rain falls than when the moon moved to the noith. Taking the four periods, we find that during No. I period, from 1867-1875, a period of plentiful rainfall, the moon was moving couth. During t the second period, from 1876-1885, a I drought period, the moon was moving [ north. Atrain, dnring the third period,^ from 1386-1894, a period of plentiful rainfall, the moon was moving south ; and also during the fourth period, from 18951904, a second drought penod, the moon was moving north. This arrangemerit is simply a natural law, and evidently it will continue, so that we may be certain, humanly speaking, that the relations betwesn the moon and the weather as herein described will remain the same. The best explanation of this theory will be tho accompanying table, and diagram, which will be easily understood. The table shows the actual records of the lain durirg each year for the 36 years, and these years arc divided into four periods of tyhich I have spoken — I ,of plentiful rain ; 11., of drought ; 111., again of plentiful ram; and IV., of drought ; and it will be seen that the first and second periods together make 19 years, and the third and fourth another 19 years. In the diagram the moon's declination is shown by a cuived line going south, and bringing abundance of rain during the first period ; going north during tha second period, with a scarcity of rain ; Gouth again, during; the third period, with plenty ofTain ; and again north; during the fourth period, with a scarcity of rain. The years are shown in the centre. Ihe record below the years shows the greatest heights of the rivers in feet during each year. — I am. eto.. H. C. RUSSKLL.

[Then follow* diagram showing moon's declination and its movement south and north, which is not included herewith. — a. h. d.]

Mr. Leonard Kohn, a West Side millianaire, gave a freak dinner at lleisenweber's restaurant, New York, on 27th January, at which all tho guests were dressed as servants. Some of the very richest guests appeared as nursemaids and 'tweoney maids, others came as pageboys, butlers with highly developed calves, and coachmen with red faces. All branches of domestic service were represented, and some enthusiastic sticklers for realism had blacked their faces to reprcsont negro servants. Tho guests were greatly disappointed at the absenco of their host, who could not be found. Later ho was revealed as the coloured cloakroom boy, who had made up so well that his own friends presented him with dollars for assisting them with their coats.

Observatory, 9th. April, 1903. Yrai h"E Yearn of ' Ynnrs of Years of Pleiily. Drotmlit. I'lenty. \ Drought. Yr«. Rain Yrf Hum. Yr«. Rain. Tip. llafn. 1867 31.11 1R76 19.23 ICB6 26.04 1895 20.22 1863 24.38 1877 26.04 1087 34.35) 1896 22.25 1869 20.23 1878 25.05 1688 13.40 1897 18.80 1870 33.77 1879 30.57 1889 29.25 18M 20.54 IP7I 31.03 ISBO 19.93 1890 35.73 1899 20.66 1372 Z6 25 1881 20.73 1891 31.76 1900 24.21 1073 33.01 IGB2 20.11 1832 27.10 1901 18.15 1874 25.12 5833 17.96 1893 28.00 1802 17.10 1875 26.29 ieß4 15.80 1894 29.82 18t5 13.94 AvT 29.47 21.64 28.39 20.24