A TIMELY WARNING.

Evening Post, Volume LXXIII, Issue 32, 7 February 1907, Page 4

A TIMELY WARNING.

The most interesting -point in tho addvess delivered at tho annual meeting of Iho Chamber of C'ommcrco yesterday by its presidout, Mr. G. W. Shirtcliffe, was his warning as to the- increase in the value of our exports which has contributed so much to the colony's recent prosperity. "Tho fact should not be lost sight of," he said, "that the increase was again vary largely a price and not a quantity increase, and so far as they Could judge, the continuance of good times in the colony during tho next few years depended tp a very great extent upon tho maintenance of values rather ithan on any substantial increasa_ in the volume of our exports that might be expected." The figures given by Mr. Shirtcliffe in support of this statement dealt -with tho relative increases in value and in volume of tho colony's enjef exports during the past two years, and may bo tabulated as follows :—: —

[t will thus bo seen that tho only export which depended for its increase solely upon an increased production was frozen meat, and that in this case the advance was only two per cant. At the other end of the scalo were wool and choepskins, which mado tho enormous advance in value of fifty-four anil sixty- , eight per cant, rcapoctivoly, against | an incroaso in volumo wlflch averaged little more than one-tenth of those-por-contages. Mr. Shirtcliffe very propori* points out that tho abnormally high prices which havo brought about these rosults cannot be expected to continuo indefinitely, and that ft prosperity which is largely dependent upon oxternal causes may at any timo suffer a check without any fault on tho part of our producers. "Everything pointed to tho colony bs; ing in a highly prosperous condition, 1 ' said Mr. Shirtcliffs, "and tho only danger uhead thnt ono could foresoe was that such good time* might lead to an extravagant standard of living and over-specu-lation on tho part of traders and others, the disastrous effeots of which would bo felt should a possible reaction take place." Wellington's special ehure in the increased prosperity of the colony was also well illustrated by Mr. Shvrtcliffe's figuros, which proved that "during the past four years Wellington had increased its trade by 45 por cent., Lyttelton by 21 per cent., Auckland by 19 per cent, and Dunedin by IB per cent" ; and while tho matter is one of special congratulation for our citizens, it aleo supplies a reason why they should pay special heed to tho wise warning of the President of tho Chamber of Commerce against the dangers of over-speculation. Tho question of preferential trad* was another matter dealt ivith by Mr. Shirtcliffe, and he referred to it as continuing to bo "in tho air," though, as far as ono here could judgo, little or no nctunl progress had been made. Mr. J). J. Nathan strongly rexented the idoa thot tho movemont was dend, but tho froe trudc victory at tho British gcnoial election, the illness of Mr. Chamberlwu, ftud tho limpness of Mr. Bulfour, have certainly combined to ad-

minister to it an almost paralysing check. Here wo can certainly do more to help the cause by taking a forward 6tep ourselves than by lecturing John Bull as to his duty. "Piactically ten-twelfths of our total oversea trade was done within the Kmpire," said Mr. Shirtcliffe, "and he could find no indication that the comparatively trifling pioportion of our trade with foreign countries was on the incTeaEe." He therefore urged — we cannot quite follow the logical connection, though we thoroughly approve the conclusion — that "it would be to the advantage of this colony to offer Great Britain and dependencies a reasonable measure of genuine preference, irrespective of any return that the Imperial authorities might or might not be able to make." Such a concession could be granted, he considered, without inflicting any injury upon our manufacturers or producers; and the Chamber of Commerce would bs rendering a valuable public service if it would formulate a scheme. There is also the more urgent question of tariff levision to be faced, and, aa the Premier has I stated that it must- be faced next session, J the new council will do well to act upon I Mr. Shirtcliffe's suggestion, and set up a special committee to attend to the matter.

Wool Sheepskins Frozen meat Butter and cheese Tallow Increase per cent. in two years. Value Volume. ... 54 8 ... 68 5 , ... 2 2 ... 18 11 ... 19 13.5