DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICS.

Evening Post, Volume LXVI, Issue 152, 24 December 1903, Page 2

DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICS.

« THE SITUATION AT HOME AND ABROAD. BuVERAL TROUBLESOME QUESTIONS. (From Our Own Correspondent.) LONDON, 13th November. There is nothing fresh or instructive or interesting to bo said this week about tho progress of • tho great fiscal controversy. Mr. Chamberlain has not brought out any new conjuring trick so opt or ingenious ua that of tho two loaves. Tliose two louves, however, have afforded most delightful opportunities to tho various caricaturists and cartoonists, who have ill ado tho most of them. Some of the derisive sketches are amusing, but one is apt to think of the old eaying that " they may laugh wlio win," and Mr. Chamberlain will not at all object to be laughed at while he is conscious that tho majority of the public laugh with him. He produced the immediate impression that he aimod at. Ho has succeeded now in completely blunting tho point and edge oi the weapon used most effectively against him, and so his end is attained. The more his coup is caricatured and travested and derided and laughed at, f;he more it is talked about and practically advertised. One cannot help seeing that so far tho freetraders havo been lamentably overmatched, and that at present Chamberlainism is scoring all along tho lino. If anybody ever seriously entertained so absurd an expectation as that a cub« stantlal section of tho Unionist Party would, go over to the Radicals and give them support on account of Mr. Cham uerlain's Protectionism and Mr. Balfour'b " Rotalialion " proposals, he should have been undeceived, and must have been seriously disgusted by the attitude assumed by gomo -of the Unionist Free traders who apparently almost to a mat. intend to stand by the Government so long as tho lince of limitation laid down by Mr. Balfour aro not oxceeded. When tho timo comes that the more specific | issue propounded by Mr. Chamberlain | has to bo directly faced and the result I decided upon, then will com* the "tug of war " j but whichever way that may go it will hardly, I fancy, result in any recruiting of tho Liberal ranks from t,hc Conservative side. There -are other political questions beside that of tariff reform and quite as important, if not more so. Meanwhile tho Radical* would deem themselves to bo blessed indeed if they could only get rid of their titulnr leader in tho Lower House. Poor Sir Henry Campbell-Ban-norman is looked upon as an incubus of tho first water—if there be euch a thing -—and the hints which he receives to this effect BcenT to bo growing broader and t broader every day. Unfortunately, he i docn not agree, with Paul on the point that "superfluous lags tho veteran on tho stage, and ro he is utterly blind and deaf to all well-meant frieridly hints. Ho is there, and there ho means to stick. The possibility that tho Radicals might come into power and that he should not be the irime Minister is to him unthinkable, und so he is doing his level best to make such a thing impossible also. ( Lord Rosebery s somewhat figurative s tender of the olive branch to tho Liberal I arty generally has evidently placed its member* m some difficulty. They cannot afford to reject it, but they fancy it would be infra dig. to make a single step forward to t«Ko it, and so the ex-Premier by xlm m , ovo Laß onco m<»"0m <»"0 placed his erstwhile disloyal colleagues in a difficulty. 1 hose who know him best regard his lost offer of amity as merely another of nis humoroua little revenges for past treachery. Before he could ever be a I motive power on the Liberal sido thoie would require to be a verj diolincl un. demanding as to the position he should i occupy. That ho would- consent to serve under Sir Henry Compbell-Bannormon is , inconceivable j whother he might conaonfc to act as lieutenant to any other of his former coUoajjues, say, for instance, Mr. Asquith or Sir Edward Grey, is another matter, but few really beliove this to bo likely. And so the "Liberal split" show*, as. yet no sign of closing up, while ELSf oth ' r > nd tt 1 * disintegration of the Unionist party coneoj quent on the breaking loose of Mr. Chamborlain and the wavering of Mr. Bnlfour uoes really appear to havo been stopped or to be changing into a species of gradual metamorphosis. It would bo a vtry rash mun indeed who would venture any nwiMvo predict iou as to what may be tho stato of parties in a year's timo irom now. , Regarding international politics, there bate. been duly cabled. Turkey has been practically told that she must carry out tho hchemo of Macedonian reform which ww tendered to her ov Russia and Aus-tro-Hungary jointly. Tho Porto as usual equivocates; procrastinates, quibbles, but declares that everything is goinc on smoothly, that the insurrection has been suppressed, and that there » no real necessity for any outside interference whatever. This view is not shared by the £™ l . fc ..r° wc^ The Sultan, however, is admittedly oho of tho astatwt statesmen to whT'T?, to .P»'«*ly underSSS to whnt extremes ho may go before any one or two Powers will bo provoked into my step which may involve a breach of the European peace. In.that conviction » ,,,£ »' ttlld & ,° he merel y «-™tim»» •tJ. n * loc T edoni « I>«I >« suffer and dio The Russo-Japanese difficulty undergoes such kaleidoscopic changes almost from should tho worst happen, it will enmo as in a moment, that the subject is hurdly worth discussing by mail from tho point of view of anything like a forecast. Russia and Japan are still negotiating for nil they aw n-orth, but it is difficult to believe that there is any sincerity in the negotiations, at any rate on the jßussian side. It seems so very obvious that Russia is simply sparring for time and seeking to amuse Japan until th& Russian reinforcements, which are known to bo on their way, shall have reached tho sceuo of action, that it is not sur-i prising to learn that thero is a strong .war party in Japan who urge that the struggle with Russia, which they all deem to be ultimately avoided, should* be undortaken without delay, while Japan is toraporarily tho stronger, and not deferred until Russia should havo accumu-i Inted an irresistible force and have it immediately available on the spot. Russia. hns pretended to retire from Korea, and still professes that her occupation of Manchuria is merely for the sake of protecting the through line of railway which sho has constructed nt such vast cost, and tho snfety of which is essential to the due usefulness of her acquisitions, Port Arthur and Tnlicnwan. But Japancso statesmen must, and I beliove do, cloarly rocog« niso that Russia will not rest content until lvoroa has been added to Munchu-i ria, and both ■ havo become part of tho Russian Empire, while that would mean simply that Russia <vould next proceed to organise her schemes ,for the conquest and absorption of Japan iw well. ' Chihtt is a fresh disturbing factor in tho Far East situation. > A few weoks ago thore seemed reason to fenr, that she had been bought over by Russia, and would givo active or passive aid, or both, j to Russia's designs upon Korea and Ja-' pnn. At tho present moment, tho , tendency Rooms to bo tho other way. Extensive Chinese preparations for war are kuown to 'bo in progress ( and thero «p- 1 pears to ba a very good mutual under- . Ktanding between the Chinese and Japanese Governments. It is thought by somo who know both peoples well, that Japan may be prompting China to join hor in v desjwrnte reiistanco to the Rui-|

sian advance, aud may be giving her in various ways useful assistance and advice with that end in view. At the same time Japan is laying in vast stores of provisions and fuel, which can be needed only in cose of war being in contempla-i tiou, and it ft well known that there is I a very strong and itieieasing Japaneso "Jingo" party in favour of immediate warlike action as tho only hope of the Empire to escape- conquest and absorption by Russia, and so tho matter fctnnds at tho time of writing. i Laat Monday was Lord Mayor's Day, ' and the usual antiquated pageant took place, differing, however, fioni most of its predecessors in tho total absence of emblematical cars and other symbolio displays, a preponderance of the military element being substituted. This feature however, was supplied mainly by the Me- r tropoUtan Volunteers, the War Office having placed somo difficulty in the way of the attendance of regular troops. A. good deal of soreness has thus been caused in civil circles. . The show wus, it must be confessed, distinctly tamo. At the evening banquot tho customury Ministerial speeches were made. Mr. Balfour's main points ware: First, that although there were international questions which gave the Government "food for thought, if nob for profound anxiety," he >vfts sanguine that the European peace would not be disturbed. He declared that there was no "more passionate advocate for general pcaco"'than tho Emperor of Russia, and expressed his conviction that our "allies of Japan," were certain to show "moderation, discretion, aud judgment" in tho demands they made, and also fiim-; nes>s in carrying those demands into effect. Secondly, Mr. Balfour plainly stated that the Austro-Russian scheme of Macedonian reform was tie absolute minimum that could be accepted, adding : "I soy that ho minimum must be enforced." Thirdly, he touched on tho Alaskan question, and here he followed the example of his uncle and predecessor, , Lord Salisbury, who was accustomed to disparage tho special worth of any "grace- j ful concussions" which ho had deemed it , neccisary to make to foreign Powers. ! He assorted that the two islands ceded to America had "really no value n<in t strategic or military point of view," wnd while regretting the way in which the awaid had gone, thought it was a matter for congratulation that the long-stand-ing disputo had at last been settled. These were the main points qi the Premier's speech. In connection with the last one, I may remark that tho soreness in Canada does not at all diminish; if anything it tends to increase But what v has chielly anuered the Canadians is the alleged fact that Lord Alverato'ne had actually joined in tho memorandum upholding Canada's case, and yet, without consulting the Canadian Commissioners, he changed right over to the other side, and declared on tho part of America. The castingvote practically fell to him, and ho thus exorcised it in direct opposition to tho stand which he had previously taken up and to which his Canadian colleagues had just reason to anticipate that ha would adhere. Possibly this diversion of the stream of popular indignation in Canada, may do good rather than harm. It does nob so much matter that the Canadians should ba angry with Lord Alverstone, the fear is lest they should become disaffected towards the Mother Country. Tho Jamacia suggestion to which I re- > ferred in a previous letter has not ro far emerged from the secret places of the respective Cabinets. j