A Study of Twentieth Century Success.

Evening Post, Volume LXIV, Issue 47, 23 August 1902, Page 1 (Supplement)

A Study of Twentieth Century Success.

The following article appeared in the July number of tho Popular Science Monthly, and is from- tho pen of Professor Grant Dexter, of tho University of Illinois, U.S.A. It throws an iqt'eresting light on the value of modern educational institutions, such as tho United States possess, in the presAit-day struggle for success : — Somo onoxhas said, with fnoro or less philosophical insight, that all questions ri'solvo themselves into tluco classes: those of "tbe What, the How, and the Why." In this puper it is primarily a question of "How" that is conwideied. How have tho men and women, who in tho opening year of this twentieth century are prominently in the public eye, achieved tho success in their various vocations, which has placed them there? "What have been tlio steppLngstones to that success? How can wo follow -in their footsteps? Tho biographies of great men have done much to answer this question, still they leavo much unsaid. Tho tow-path and flat boat j do not ' furnish nowadays the shortest routo to the eminence upon which the ambitious youth has fixed hia eye, aud ho wants more guideposls by the way. In an attempt to discover the general routo to that goal, I have studied a few facts from the lives of many, rather than many facts from tho lives of a few. The. basis of tho study is "Who's Who in America" for 1900. This book, of which tho edition of 1900 was tho first, is for America what the English volume of the same namo has been for England for Kiore than hulf a cenhuy, namely, an address- book of living celebrities-— *if we givo this term consideublo extension — containing a brief biographical sketch of each. This includes in most cases date of birth, particulars as to schooling, present profession and address, together with any unusual accomplishment or public service! The edition of 1900 contains 8602 names, and in my study of them the first three biographical facts mentioned were considered. I shall say nothing in defenco of the criterion of success which I am here taking : that is, mention in "Who's Who." On what constitutes real success in life probably no two of us could agree. It would, how ever, be acceded by all who aYe familiar with tha book, that although it fails to mention many who are worthy a place in its pages as aro some who appear there, it is nevertheless true that each whom it has mentioned has attained a degree of eminence which warrants tho assertion that, at least before tho public, success has crowned his efforts to a degree not achieved by the ordinary run of mankind. Whatever success may mean it would bo safe to say that it depends upon two things — nature and nurture. On the nature side of the problem, wo find no help in "Who's Who" since ancestry is not included. On the nurturo side, which would mean education in its broadest sense, we find facts descriptive of certain phases only, namely those of the schools. How important a p'.nco they take in the education of the individual can never be determined with any degree of exactness, but even with a full recognition of the force of the borne, tho church, tho State, and tho vocation, it must be conceded that their influence as an organised educational machino is very great. Facts bsaring upon this influence are the ones principally furnished by "Who's Who" and, together with those of age, the only ones considered here.

A mention of 8602 names in tho volumo in question means, if w« assume that every inhabitant of the United States above the ago of twenty-one waß eligible to such mention, that one iv each six hundied was so honoured. - This then would be our ratio of success for all degrees of education — good, bad, and indifferent. We find, however, that of the whole number mentioned 3237 had received the bachelor's degree in arts, literature, science or philosophy at some college or university. But a study of the alumni lists of such institutions shows us that after the commencement season of 1899 i

there were 334,000 living graduates. A comparison of the number mentioned in tho book (3237) with this whole number alive shov.s us that one college graduate in each hundred und six found a place. Here then wo have the latio of success for college graduates. But to carry our process of comparison one step farther: taking 1.600 as the ratio of success (tho "Who's Who" kind) for the ndult American, and 1.106 as that for the collego graduate, we find that tho probability of success is inaca^cd moro than 6.6 times by a college education. This relation is ehown graphically in Fig. 1. This tremendous advantage can probably not be attributed entirely to the diroct educational effect of puch a training, but, to ti considerable extent, to the selectivo influence of the course. Of the whole number of pupils who enter the elementary schools, but a very small percentage continues to the completion of the college course. This coinparalivclv small number of persisters docs not fnjrly represent what our educational machinery could have done with tho entire number who started at the bottom, but what that machinery can do with tho kind nature has endowed with sufficient energy, determination, and persistence to enable them to withstand the temptations to drop out ono by ono by the way and take a seemingly short cut to somo ignus faluus of snecess, but who continue to the end. There is heie shown undoubtedly with considerable force the potency of the law of tho survival of the fittest, if we tnko as our criterion of filnrss mention in "Wlio'i Who." This, however, doc 3 not Jnwilid.ilc the fact that tho college course, either because of its educational or rclcctive influenc^, increases largely, perhaps to the extent we havo shown, tJio probability t that tho graduate Avill gain a favourable place in the public eye. A classification of the names in tho book which forms the brsis of our study, in terms of the various pioursions and vocations, gives us' the following numbers for the twenty-four which seem to form the most natural divisions: — Actor: Male C 4. female 40. Artist, including illustrators: Male 200, female 21. Author, including writer, historian, novelist, and poet : Milo 528, fem.'lo 272. Business, including the various mercantile pursuits : Male '200. Cler^vmon, including bishop, rabbi, priest, mins'onnry. {-Salvation Army, and monk : Male Cjo, female 7. College profersor, including President. Dean and Chancellor: Mole 1090. female 11. Conpres*nu»n (both Senate olid House) : 44G. Editor, including journalifl. critic, correspondent, and' reporter: Male "09, female 13. lidacatcr, inc!iu!inf» superintendent, teacher, philanthropist, and reformer-. Male 188, female ISO. Engineer, including architect and minor: Male 284. Financier, including capitalist nnd banter: Malo 2]5. Inventor: Male 26. Lawyer, including Justice. Jucigf*, and jurist: Male 857, female 4. Lrrtuivr: Male 21, female 0. Librarian: Male 3(V2. femnlo 9. Musician, including ringer: Mnlc 111, female 21. Physician : JJnle TiiO, femaln 7. Railroad official : Mole 102. Sailor : Stalo 103. Scientist, including naturalist: Male 416. female 7. Soldier': 205. Statesman, including Governor, diplomat, politician, nnd mayor: 202. U.S. ofllcial: Male 08, female 1. Miscellaneous, running nil the way from farmer to insurance president : Male 53, female 2. The sum of theso figures does not quite equal 8602, tho number which, as has already been stated, tho book mentions, since a comparatively small number who failed to give the year of birth were not included in tho study. , t

One question, among others, which the young person about to choose a profession is apt to consider is this *. How long will it tako to get a foothold? How many years of hard sledding before the smooth road is reachod? Both ambition and pocket are interested in the answer, and without doubt many a young man has been influenced^ in his choice of profession by this conclusion on this matter. The data at my command throw light only inj directly on this question, but more directly on another. How long must I wait for eminence, if it ever comes, and in what profession may I expect it earlij est? If there be any fixed relation between a foothold ana success, then the former question may be answered by inference. A tabulation of the ages of each of tho eight thousand and, more I individuals of both sexes for the vocaj tions mentioned above (with the exception of a few less frequently chosen) is shown graphically in Figs, 2 and 3. The former is for males and the latter for females, though the gentler sex was a competitor of sufficient strength to war- | rant consideration in seven only. In each of tho figures the vocations are indicated at the bottom. Of the two heavy vertical lines (ordinates) above each vocation, the one at the left indicates by its height the percentage of the whole number mentioned who were below forty years of age ; in other words, tho percentage of young men " and women who had nchieved eminence in it, if we may assume that a- person is young until ho is forty. Tho ordinate at the right of each pair shows in a similar manner by its height the average ago in ycai3 of nil those mentioned for the vocation indicated below. In each case the ordinates are to bo read by means of tho scales at the left and right of the figure: the youth ordinato in peroentngca and that for ugo in yours, although the figure is so drawn that tho same scales apply to both. Theso figures show then, as fully as an inductive study based upon a limited number of data will permit, (1) the relative probability of achieving early distinction in the various professions, (2) the average ages of persons of distinction in those professions, (3) a basis of comparison for the two sexes. An inspection of Fig./2 from the standpoint of the first of these possibilities (noting only the left of each pair of ordinates) shows at a glance that the musician distances all competitors in the race for distinction. This is not hard to un-

dersland when we recall the infant prodigies who frequently figure on our* bill boardfl, or consider that jmturo has in most cases contributed more largely to his success than has nurture. Of those callings which presuppose a professional or tit least an extended preparation, that of scientist ciuems from our figure to promise the earliest recognition. This is perhaps due to tho fact that for him the actual work of life is entered with a completor intellectual equipment than by most of the others,' and ttiat the period of preparation offers opportunities ior research and original investigation which may bring renown even before life work is begun. This would aleo apply to tne

college profescor with perhaps fully as much force and in a lesser degree to the hijivrkin and tho educator. Ihese four, then, might be included in a class in which the period of preparation is extended) but ior winch woik of a high ordyr might be expected immediately on its completion, nnd poyibons of homu prominence aspired to fioih tho start. iN'i'Xt in the race for renown come the actor und author; almost neck end neck. If we concluded thut nultu-o had most to do with mu.}iciaJii' .success ami nurture with the educator's we should be forced to place the author and acior in a class in which tiioss two forces divide the honours more evenly. No doubt ono must be born an actor or an author to rise to n high rank, but after all, tho miking process i 3 not to bo despised as a factor, uid this* takea .time. .Except for the soldier nnd the Bailor, whose übihtr to rise to prominence, at leant in time of ptare, ia duurniined by the rapidity witli which those alioro him tiro ret (red from service, und the Congressmen and the statesman, whose mimimiui limit is prescribed by law.-i, the ix3t of the vocations •shown upon the chart fall, it atcma to mo, into a class for which the schools, as organised means of education, provide no adequate preparation, nnd for which that .preparation must come, to a greatex tent, fiom the vocation itself.

As an illustration of what J mean : tho scientist, or even the college professor, who has devoted thirty years of life to study, can enter his profession from tho top, while the business man and financier, for whom tlic. accumulation of wealth is a desideratum, or the lawyer and tho doctor, who must command a practice, or the minister, who need 3 a congregation, must, with the same period of intellectual infancy, enter it from tho bottom and devote a few more years to the climbing process. In so far as the physician is an investigator the conditions of tho scientist apply to him, and no doubt tho consiiderablo number who are such accounts for the fact that hn recognition oomes earlier than that of > his competitors in law and the pulpit. Tho surprising thing of the figure J3 perhaps the slowness with which tlie inve-ntor gains a foothold on tho ladder to fame. Not ono of those mentioned was below tho age of forty, though not enough names were included to give this fact great weight. A study of Fig. 2 from tho standpoint of average ages of those mentioned (note only the right ordhuite of each pair) discloses little which would not havo been expected from the facts already stated. It will be seen that where recognition was early, the average age is comparati.i ly small, while for thoso vocations in whicli the climb was a tedious one, tho age is much greater. Certainly one whoso ambition was early renown would not, from the showing of our figures, choose business- or finance. Since, however, these professions aro seldom entered for glory, we. need not fear a lack of aspjrants fbr. the rewards which they bring. When nature has done most for the man, as in' tho case of the actor, author, and musician, the laurel crown conies earliest." If one must depend upon nurture as most of us must, the scientist, the college professor, tho editor, the educator, and the clergyman may hope to wear it longest and in the order given. As has been stated, Fig. 3 shows for Avomen tho conditions which have just been discussed for men, for those callings in which they have been to any extent competitors. It shows that upon the stage und in musical circles recognition is much earlier for them, while in tho other callings it is slower than for their brothers., In other words, nature works quickly with her and nurture slower, if our figureg are to be accepted. It is perhaps worthy of mention, too, that tho two professions in which she outstrips him are tho only ones in which attraqtiveness of persdn would be at a premium; perhaps at so much of a premium as to make up for some other defects. When, however, this is' outlived with youth the struggle seems to be a hard if not a losing one.

Wo havo now to consider tho cducV'ional preparation of the persons whose names are included under tho several vocations. This so far as it has to do with tho schools — the only data at our disposal — is shown by the somewhat complicatedlooking Figs -1 nnd 5, the former for the men and the latter for the women. Upon each of them the vocations are indicated at the bottom ns in those just explained. Of the variously constructed ordinates nbovc each name, that part which is wholly black shows by its height the percentage of those named for that vocation who mentioned no schooling above the elementary or secondary grade. This would probably mean in most cases that the educational preparation was carried no farther. That portion of the ordinate Which has heavy black lines at the sides shows in the tame manner tho percentage of those

mentioned who had received the baccalaureate degree at some college- or university ; that portion h iving a. heavy lino in the centre, the percentage who had completed a professional course ; that portion which has the heavy lines both at the side and in the middle, tho percentage who had pursued both the college and professional course ; the portion between the top of tho ordinate and the horizontal line at the top of the figure, the percentage educated entirely abroad, and the little line exending out from some of the ordinates, by its distance from the base line, the percentage who had taken some post-graduato degree. Honorary degrees are not included. In every case the percentages are to bo* read by means of the scale at the right nnd, left of the figure. As an illustration of the interpretation of one of the ordinates I will take that for clergymen : 24 per cent, are shown to have no education above the hicjh school (black portion), 52 per ceut. hive a college education (heavy side line 3 76—24, equal to 52), 35 per cent, havo a. professional education, presumably, the divinity school (heavy middle lino 91 — 56, equal to 35). 20 per cent, have both (heavy side and middle lines 76 — 56, equal to 20), 9 per cetit. were educated entirely abroad and were presumably largely' foreigners (distance between top of ordir-atc and top of figure, 100—91, equal to 9), 28 per cent, had taken a post-graduate degree (distance- between base line nnd small mark at ripht of ordinate). The ordinates for each of the other professions may bo interpreted in the same mann-er. The data in my possession make possible tho study of various oiher combinations | of educational courses, as hs com•pavisons of them for persons of different ajres showing tho educational trend, but l.ick of spacs prevents a discussion of these facts in the present paper. I will nny, howovar, that tho fi;:lire<? do not show 'combinations of training nbrnnd with thut in our homo institutions. The spnees on tbe, fieurei which havo to do with trainicp r.broad refer only to tho^o per?om who fa!!ed to make any use whatever of homo institution?, at least above hisrh school. - Figures 4 and 5 then show — (1) tl-.c educational preparation of persons of both sexes for the various pr off a "ions, and (2) a ban's of comparison between tho two. They answer, too, a very important question : "What kind of preparation has proved the most essential to t'tint kind of success which mention in 'Who's Who' means?" Ther have nothing to uo with the question "What kind of preparptio'n mint the doctor, cr the lawyer, or tho miniatei^ have to be a doctor, or a lawyer, or a minister," but what kind is most likely to put him in the class or doctors and lawyers, and who achieve eminence. In other words, we aro studying pelected persons in each profession, but since every mon and woman of proper ambition who enters n profession hojjtcs to be one. of those selected, tho problem has a wide bearing. j

In the discussion of the figures which follows I shall, for tha sake of directness and with full recognition of the fact that the two are not synonymous, speak of thoso under each profession whose educaltion stopped with the high school (black portion of the ortJinates) as uneducated. Of this class the- actor shows by far tho greatest number— so large that we could hardly advise the young person with histrionic ambition to go to college merely as an aid to public recognition in his art. There may be other inducements for him, but seemingly not that.' Business seems to offer the next largest inducement to • the uneducated ; 84 per cent, of its devotees belong to that class. Twelve per cent, had, However, co"mpleted the college course, arid this in my opinion is enough to invalidate the arguments of C. P. Huntington and others against such training for business men. Wo havo no means of knowing just how many of our business men throughout the country have taken the college course, but computed roughly, 'one nyin in about i 300 of all grades and stations in life ha? been so educated. Since this includes mill operatifes and other classes iv which such training is practically unknown, we must assume that tho ratio would be much larger for the business man. Yet it seems to me that even a most generous estimate could not bring it up to on© in eight — that of our business men of eminence — and we should be foiced to conclude that the college course has oven for him, remote as the connection seems to bo, been a contributor to hid success. This argument would also apply to the financier, who comes next with his 18 per cent, of college graduates. Our statesmen, the next .class, nnd the congressmen, who differ but little, aro hardly to be congratulated on their showing. Thus one may say that with our whole male citizenship eligible to those positions of honour— the boast of our republic — whose ratio of college training is one to 300, while that for fhe eminent man of these two classes is about, one to five as shown by our figure, tho probability of gaining such honourable mention is increased about sixty-fold for these, our lawmakers and diplomats by the college course, an increase which is not to be despised by those who aim at these high places at popular disposal. This, too, for college conditions in which departments of finance and special facilities for diplomatic training have not played so important a part as they ai* likely to in future Altboayl* Bricrf* *nd musicians seem t6 be trnednccUtd etas?**,, we must not neglect the fact shown by; the figure that large numbers (43 p«r cent, and 33 per cent, respectively) tow educated abroad, where undoubtedly tl&y were spending their time to better advantage than could have been done in any college at home. Next after the sailor and the soldier, whose heavy black lines upon the figure bear testimony to the efficiency of our national academies for the. training of officers on land and

sea, cnrnp.s, our descending scale o{ learnedness, the lawyer. His educational showing, when compared with that of the sister professions of medicine and theology, is not a favourable ono. With 40 per cent, of the shining lights of our legal fraternity innocent either of professional training or of academic instruction beyond the high school, ue wundcr M'hut the education of the lesser lights may be and whether really much education is essential to success. The records of the bar examination in the various States aie co kept, or rather so not kept, as to make it impossible to ascertain the pre\ious training of those adInitted, so I am unable to show these facts for the j-ank and file of the profession. The reports of the United States Commissioner of Education, however, show that for the last twenty -years 27 per cent, of the students registered in the law schools of our country had already taken the bachelor's degree in souio academic institution. This may then be taken as the percentage of lawyer* throughout the country who have had the liberal training of the college course. But of our eminenV lawyers the porcentago so trained is forty-six, implying that the college educated lawyer's chances of being- counted among the immortals of 'Who's Who' are nearly doubled. • This relationship is more exactly shown in Figure 6. Without discussing the engineer, the librarian, the scientist or j the educator, whose educational conI ditions are shown and for whom no farther comparisons can be made, the cleijiyj man. comes in for his share in the aiialy- ' sir In his case we find about one fourth .*■• uneducated, one half with collega I education, and one third, that of the | professional school. For him, too, we hava • only the figures of the United States j Commissioner as ' a basis of comparison. , Of the divinity school students of our ■.land wo there find that 24.7' per ctnt. -iiaye tttkr.i a college degree. But ot the 'Who's Who' 'clergy, 53.3 per cent, had been so rewarded. The premium, "which a comparison of these two purs upoa the college-bred minister is :'!so shown in Fig 6 and is one not to be disregarded by the aspirant for pulpit honour. Oil tho score of posl-praduate attainments t be 'clergyman is shown to be an industrious worker.

Tho banner professions, so fur as educational iiccompliihrncnts are concerned, are seen to be those of college instruction and medicine, with the showing slightly in favour of the latter if we disregard post-graduate honour, in which tho college men easily outrank all others. Tjbese, too, Lave ms.de more extensive u?e of opportunities for stud)- abroad in connection with the home training, though this fact is not shown in the figure, nor is anotCei* fact of interest — namely, that they have made tho most rapid improvements., in their intellectual equipment as shown by a sludr by decades for the last sixty years. T\ r e have, however, no data upon which to base a comparison of the "rank" with the "file."

For the physicians we can only rely once more upon the Commissioner of Education. He states that 7.5 per cent, of the medical students of the country have taken the academic degree. Yet we find— mirabile xiictu— that 42 per cent, of the "Who's Who" physicians havo been recipients of that degree. Kearly six times .as many of the 'rank' as of the 'file' (see Figure 6). It seems hardly probable that the college training can bo at such a premium in the actual practice of the medical man, so it seems tc mo we must conclude that it is as a scientist and a producer that such a training counts for most. The scientific societies of the physician undoubtedly stimulate more of their members to original research, and investigation, and consequently to a greater productiveness, than do organisations among clergymen and lawyers., and it is here J that the broader training would count "for most. We must, in any event, from tho lacts disclosed by our study, conclude ,that of the' three generally recognised learned • professions, the medical leads in the breadth and perfection of its educational preparation. A study of the education of women', based upon Figure 5, is disappointing, and from it wo are forced to one of two conclusions -. either (1) that women can attain an eminence equal to that of men, with less dependence .upon cduca« tional machinery, or (2) that the com. pilefs of tho book upon which our study is based have made use of a different and lower criterion in judging them. In the casp of no one of the vocations shown upon the figure was her trainihg so complete as was that of her male competitor for honours, and the same was true for the limited number of dbctdrs, lawyers, and ministers mentioned for the sex. In no one of the vocations, except that of th« stage, was the difference so slight as to leave any doubt on the question. The most discouraging* thing aboui it, too, as disclosed by a *ludy by decades but hot shown upon any of tho figures, is that for recent years, when, institutions of nearly all classes have been as freely opeu to woman as to man, there seems to be no change for the hotter. Her educational inertia, due very naturally to centuries lacking in oppqr tunity, is not easily thrown off, ated.t until it is — a time which seems not yet to have arrived — she can not take her place with man in the professional worldi even should she consider_it as properly her sphere.