Evening Post. MONDAY, NOVEMBER, 1899. GERMANY AND THE TRANSVAAL.

Evening Post, Volume LVIII, Issue 110, 6 November 1899, Page 4

Evening Post. MONDAY, NOVEMBER, 1899. GERMANY AND THE TRANSVAAL.

At the time of the Jameson Raid the German Emperor seemed to have taken the South African Republic under his wing. Had there been war then, there is every reason to believe that serious complications would have arisen between Great Britain and Germany. The Emperor, it will be remembered, roused an outburst of anti-German feeling in England by the telegram he sent to President Kruger congratulating him upon the failure of Dr. Jameson's ili-advised attack. The reasons for Germany's adopting this anti-British attitude were not far to seek. The economic condition of the country had brought home to its rulers the desirability ot creating an oversea Empire- as an outlet for German trade and colonisation. Between 1884 and 1890 the eyes of the German rulers were turned towards Africa, where large tracts of territory were acquired. Togoland and the Cameroons, on the Gulf of Guinea, German East Africa, between Uganda and the Portuguese colony on the East Coast, and German South-west Africa, to the north ot Cape Colony, on the West Coast, were to form the nucleus of Germany's African Empire, and that

Empire could not be extended without trenching upon British claims. Tho policy, therefore, was to keep tho Transvaal as a sort of open sore- in tho centre of the British possessions to check British expansion and prevent British interference with German designs. Since the Raid, however, 11 marked change has come over German views, and tho Emperor is now courting Britain, and turning a deaf ear to tho blandishments of tho Transvaal. One of tho most striking features of tho European attitude towards the war is tho favourable light in which German official circ.es havo come to ' regard Great Britain's African policy. Why is there such a difference between 1895 and 1899 V One reason for the change operates in Germany, as well as in the re&t of Europe, and that is the evident error that Mr. Kruger has committed in attempting to create and maintain a corrupt oligarchy at Pretoria. But this cause alone would only be sufficient to prevent nctive sympathy with the Boers ; it would not account for the extreme friendliness shown by Germany for Great Britain in, for instance, tho recent inspired article published by the Berlin Neueste^ Nachrichten. Wo must go further afield to find the determining cause of this newly-developed amity. Germany's African possessions have not proved very successful from the financial or the commercial point of view, and there are good grounds for believing that they are a source of weakness rather than strength to the Fatherland. Neither tne Emperor nor the people are willing for this reason to give up their dreams of German expansion. Africa is not to be their goal, that is all ; and they are the more ready to give up the Dark Continent sinco they have at hand richer fields to exploit and an Empire to build that may rival even India in wealth and magnificence. This Empire, however, cannot be established, nor can Gormany's present pos-essions in Africa bo made secure, without the friendly support of Great Britain. Hence there would seem to be much wisdom in the German Emperor's present attitude The country he has, so to speak, earmarked for German enterprise is Asia Minor, with the historic valley of the Euphrates and Tigris. For several months it has been an open secret that Her Majesty's Government had come to termu with the Emperor as to this prospective inheritance of his. Naturally, if the British are to give the Germans tacit support in their Anatolian schemes the Geimans wiL be expected to give an adequate quid pro quo by not interfering with the pro-gre-s of their allies in Egypt or in South Africa. "Com Paul" cnuid nob hope ( o ou.bid Great Britain if it came to making a bargain with the Kaiser. The enormous value of Asia Minor as a sphere for European development has not been thoroughly understood, although, our own William IV\ is said to have been the originator of the idea of opening up a road through it to the Far East, lac pic-ent German Emperor has actively taken up the idea that has been simmering for fomc sixty odd yeara in the brain? of a few lurge-brainod statesmen and tracers. The propo. cd Anatolian railway is to be the lever for 1 tunning tho Sultan's Asiatic provinces over to German control. It has now, we understand, been definitely arranged that the construction and management of tho failway are to be in German hand*, although a considerable amount of British and French capital is lo be invested in it. Great Bntain has her hands very full with Egypt, South Africa, India, and her settlements and colonies in the Orient to look after, and *ho has .no ground of compla.n , save that of the dog-in-the-manger, against this German project. If successful, the Kaiser's undertaking would encourage British trade and promote civilisation. Great Britain would gain, and not lo^e, by it. If the old art of irrigation be revived in the rich Assyrian plains, and if the mineral resources of the hill - country of Asia Minor be properly worked, Germany will find in her new sphere of influence a world-function such as the British are performing in India. She will, however, run the Tisk of Russian and French, and perhaps Austrian, hostility. 1 Russia wants no strong master of trained legions in possession in the Sultan's derelict provinces. Austria ex pects a legacy from the Ottoman Empire, and France would undoubtedly be jealous, and not impossibly genuinely apprehensive of German. advances near Syria,' upon which she has old claims. It can, therefore, be easily seen that the German emperor is anxious to obtain the neutrality and if possible the active aid d Bntain, while he lays in his projected railway the foundation of his future Asiatic Empire. To our thinking, therefore, the key to German conduct in South Africa is to be found in j Anatolia, and for that reason we are disposed to believe that foreign complications ore not likely to arise out of the present Boer War.