NEWS BY THE MAIL.

Evening Post, Volume XXIX, Issue 132, 27 June 1885, Page 1 (Supplement)

NEWS BY THE MAIL.

The New Zealand Shipping Company's R.M.S. Aorangi brought English papers to Bth May. TIIE RUSSIAN DIFFICULTT. The announcement that the Governments of Russia and England agreed in a wish to settle their differences in an amicable manner and in referring them to the Sovereign of a friendly State, has been receivad with universal satisfaction. Even a wish to agree would have been hailed with pleasure by all who hate the terrible results of war. Reflection, however, shows that we have really very little information in our possession, and our only guarantee that the agreement, either made or in the course of being made, is consistent with the honour of the country and calculated to secure peace, is our confidence in the Government. Some incidents of the agreement t*g know, because they could hardly bo kept from us ; others we do not know • while others, again, are admittedly in a state of so much doubt that the whole negotiation must evidently bo even now in a crude condition. In the meantime the settlement of the frontier is isolated from the Penj-deh question — a highly desirable consummation, but ono which may be found to be more practically difficult than appears at first sight. The two Powers are to resume their deliberations on the settlement of the main points of the Afghan frontier line, before they have agreed on the terms of the reference of their disputes to a third party. It may ultimately prove that they cannot agree to those terms. Again, it seems that the Russian Government "expresses its willingness to consider the removal of the Russian outposts when the Commissioners meet." but if it does not remove the outposts, is the delimitation to proceed while the disputed points are held by Russia? Sir Peter Lumsden has been " informed that it is desirable that both he and Colonel Stewart should come Home forthwith." Thiß intimation is said to have been made in conformity with Sir Peter Lumsden's own views, and the statement is likely to be true, because his position is neither safe nor dignified, and ho could not resume hia work in the presence of an invading Russian force. But even in this matter there is a good deal of obscurity in the Ministerial mind. It is not clear that the whole of Sir Peter Lumsden's embassy will be withdrawn, the position of the Ameer is not distinctly defined, and there is evidently a very hazy idea of the manner in which the local details are to be settled upon the spot after the " main points " have been agreed upon in London. The delimitation of the new frontier (says The Times) must bind Russia so strictly not to advance upon Herat that, were she to do so, the fact would at once create a plain and incontestable casus belli. But it will ako be necessary to revise our arrangements with the Ameer in view of an altered state of things in which a main element has been his own change of purpose. His indifference to the fronti m* for which he had induced ns to enter into a diplomatic struggle with Russia, and his reluctance to admit an English army into his dominions, have placed us in a difficult position. We have no reason for casting suspicion on the Ameer's good faith, and we can easily understand why lie is anxious to avoid, almost at any cost, making [ Afghanistan the theatre of a war between two great European Powers. At the same time he has received much and hitherto has given little or nothing in return, and it is time to make him understand quite clearly that our relations with him cannot continue to be of this unilateral character. Herat is the Ameer's, but we are interested in its safety no less than he is. He is bound, at once, to take measures to secure the city against the possibility of a coup de main by establishing a large garrison there, and, if he objects to the presence of an English auxiliary force, he cannot at all events refuse to receive a few English engineer officers, who might do what Eldred Pottinger did with such brilliant success in a former generation If peace, a temporary peace, be secured, on whatever terms, there will be some time gained, which it would be madness to waste, but, at the best, it is to be feared there will be not too much time to spare. A FOREIGN STATESMAN'S OPINION. Now that the dispute has taken such a favourable turn, it may be worth while to place on record some remarks made to me (says a correspondent of the Chronicle) by a very eminent statesman at the Royal Castle at Buda on Sunday last, which now have a special significance. " Russia," said my informant, " would certainly have advanced on Herat had the dispute taken a different turu. Now, however, there .are jeyeralreasons which will cause her to act with the utmost prudence. Even if she accepts the frontier laid down by M. Lessar, however, she will have scored a decided success, as the adoption of this limit to her southern frontier brings her into touch, direct or indirect, with England — a circumstance the political importance of which it would be difficult to magnify. England has, therefore, now ceased to be an island, and will, in consequence, have to give up an insular policy. She will henceforth be as directly assailable as any other European Power, and once Russia obtains a firm footing in the Paroparmisus region, she will not be long before she succeeds in making the numerous Afghan tribe play the same part in affording an excuse for a further Russian advance, as did the Bulgarians. Servians, and Armenians in giving her a pretext for an advance on Constantinople. There is, in addition," said my informant, " another reason why Russia should content herßelf for the present with a smaller concession so long as Bhe can secure peace, and that is the extraordinary friendliness and solicitude which Germany has shown towards her throughout the controversy. It looked, in fact, as ii

Germany was desirous of hurrying Russia into a war, and consequently the suspicions of Russian statesmen weie aroused as to the real intentions of Germauy. Russia, therefore, decided to take what she could get in safety and without war, and so far as her future action in Central Asia is concerned she will not be likely to undertake anything further without coming to a previous arrangement with Germany and Austria. On this account," concluded my informant, " the meeting of the three Emperors, in spite of semi-official denials, will be certain to take place in the course of the coming summer, and will be of the utmost importance to England, inasmuch as on the results of decisions come to at the meeting will depend Russia's further action in Afghanistan." FOREIGN OPINION. Tho Neuo Freie Presse thus speaks of the situation :—": — " A solution of the Afghan question by arbitration would be a most valuable precedent. It would prove that the path of mediation may be trodden in all circumstances, without endangering the honour of the parties concerned. The English Cabinet has made a clever move in placing before Russia the alternatives of either assenting to mediation or assuming the responsibility for the war. In St. Petersburg such responsibility was dreaded, and therefore humanity is on the point of celebrating one of its brightest victories."