THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

Evening Post, Volume XXII, Issue 18, 21 July 1881, Page 2

THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

LOBBY RUMOURS. Naturally all other subjects of lobby tumour have now faded into insignificance in view of the fact that a Ministerial crisis is impending. The combined Opposition party profess unbounded confidence in the result of the coming division, and plainly di-claro that they have a safe majority of at least seven. They calculate on 47 votes being recorded for Mr. Ormond's motion. This includes 36 " Irreconcileables," viz. — Messrs. Andrews, Ballance, Barron, Brown, De Lautour, J. B. Fisher, J. 'f . Fißher.Goorge, Gisborne, Grey, Hamlin, Harris, Hutchison, Jones, Lundon, Maoandrew, Montgomery, M'Donald, Moss, Pyke, Reeves, Reid, Scddon, Sheehan, Shrimski, Speight, Stewart, Taiaroa. Tawhai, Te Wheoro, Tomoana, Thomson, Tole. Turnbull, and VVallis. To these have to be added Mr. Ormond's '"Middle" Party, alleged to comprise the following 11 members : — Messrs. Bastings, Driver, Hirst, Levestam, M Canghan, Urmond, Saunders, Shanks, Swanson, Reader Wood, and Wright. The following mombers are reported on aa ''doubtful": — Messrs. Allwright, Brandon, Bunny, Colbeok, Finn, and Hurst. On Tuesday night the Opposition counted on Messrs. Murray and Weston also, but the former has since declared for Ministers, and the latter is understood to intend voting on the samo side. Some will vote against the Government purely on the provincial issue, and others, while disliking tlieir local government policy, will support them as against the proposal to restore Provincialism. The party lines and political boundaries heretofore existing are completely broken up by the issue now raised, and it is impossible to predict the result with any confidence. It is understood that the debate will hwt over thig week, in order to give hon. members a last chance of talking at their constituents through the pages of Hansard. The division, then, is not thought likely to bo taken earlier than Tuesday next. The Ministerial party are, of course, not inclined to " show their hand" too soon, and various unexpected developments may take place before that time. Meanwhile many juvenile members in the ranks of the Government party freely admit that they anticipate being in a small minority. If, however, the "doubtfuls" should ultimately declare against Ministers, tho disparity will of course be much greater. "Lobbying" is being carried on with the utmost eagerness and vigour by both sides, and whatever the upehot may turn out to be, it will not be reached without a hard and determined fight. The excitement over the no-confidenoo debate appears to be on the wane this afternoon, at any rate less interest was openly manifested in the proceedings. The Ormondites do not now expect such a large majority as they thought they at first had, owing to the activity of the whips on the other side, but they say they are sure if tha division wero to be taken to-night they would defeat the Government by a majority of two. On the other hand, the Government party become moro convinced of success as time runs on, and declare that they would not fear a division at any moment. A good story is told about Tomoana and one of the Government whips. Tomoana was ill, and wanted a '' pair," but the whip refused it, and the native became disconsolate. He, however, had a friend in need, who made the whip a bet that whether Tomoana could get a par or not, he would, ill as he was, attend the House last night aid declare himself against the Government. The bet was accepted.