A LOT OF SMOKE AND SOME FLAME

Dominion, Volume 34, Issue 227, 21 June 1941, Page 10

A LOT OF SMOKE AND SOME FLAME

Russo-German Relations

AN ORDINARY MAN’S VIEW OF THE WAR

(By Observer.)

Too much. smoke is blowing about for there not to be some flame deep inside the uneasy relations between Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany. At tlie time the Russo-Gennau pact was sprung upon an incredulous wqrld in that fateful August) 1939, observers of international affairs with any perspicacity at all saw in it no more than a damping down of the fires lit and fanned in earlier years by the two

Governments, the one to consume the other ideologically if not militarily.

Among the observers who perceived the glow timid the apparently cold ashes of Berlin-Moscow hatreds was Mr. Winston Churchill. That was on April 27 this year when, in a world broadcast, he said :—

The Germans might lay their hamls for a time on the granaries of the Ukraine and the oil wells of the Caucasus; they might dominate the Caspian, but one thing is certain —Hitler cannot find safety from the avenging justice in the East, the Middle East and the Far East.

While the campaign in Greece was approaching its disappointing end another shrewd commentator, Mr. Wickham Steed, predicted au about turn of the Nazi hordes to face north and East. -

Germany (he said) has got to get oil and grain, and quickly. Where? Not enough oil from Rumania’s wells; not enough wheat from Western Europe. Then where? .Hitler has long cast covetous eyes ou the Ukraine. In the light of what is now believed to be going on between Nazi Germany and the U.S.S.R. we are in a position to t>e wise if not after then close up to the event. We can go back along the news and pick up bits and pieces which fitted together foreshadow yet another instance of the improbable likely to become the probable. On April 13 Russia and Japan agreed on a pact of neutrality. It meant that if either the Soviet or Japan became the object of military action by one or more third Powers the other party would observe neutrality. Thus Russia closed the Far Eastern door against intervention from Japan if Germany attacked the Soviet. Berlin, taken unawares, “had no comment to offer.”

On April 30 Use official German Army newspaper for the first time since the signing of the Russo-German pact reminded its readers that: — they must never forget that Hitler was first to take up the fight against the Bolshevik terror regime.

It is known that the officer class of the German Army was aghast at the Russo-German pact, which they regarded as a marriage of convenience to be dissolved when expediency dictated.

Ou May 4 Hitler, reviewing the Battle of‘Greece, said, “Nothing is Impossible to the German Army.” Was this addressed to Stalin more than to the rest of the world?

Stalin, ou May 6, speaking to Red Army graduates at the Kremlin, referred to “profound changes in the army which in the light of experience of modern warfare had been reorganized and considerably rearmed.”

This was followed by the announcement that Staliu had assumed the post of fremier. ousting Molotov. The explanation was that Stalin wanted firmer control of the army, which was tlie Communist Party’s sole potential rival.

The pact ef friendship which Germany exacted this week from Turkey was inspired by one obvious anxiety—on Hitler’s part—to shield the German flank against a possible British thrust through Turkey with her connivance up to the Caucasus.

Now all these are pointers to internal preparations by both Hitler and Staliu for a show-down, or a colossal joint bluff and grab. Hours, or at most days, will supply the interpretation.

Hess in the Picture?— lt may not be wide of the mark to suggest that the Hess incident tits somewhere Into the Russo-German picture. The No. 3 Nazi came down in Scotland on May IQ. Mr. Churchill promised a statement- if and when he deemed it in the public interest. Five weeks have passed and the wily Mr. Churchill has resisted all attempts to draw him out. \Ve know that Hess has talked. From what the Lord Provost of Glasgow said (he has not been contradicted) Hess came on a mission and is said still to be loyal to Hitler. Is it improbable that the deputy-Fuehrer was sent by Hitler to propose a deal? Is it too absurd to think that' Hess suggested calling off the war between Britain and the •Reich, leaving Britain and her possessions in the sta tus' quo ante and Hitler free to turn East to Russia? It is just a thought. If he made such a proposition he had bls answer when Mr. Churchill called the Allies together in St. James’s Palace and, ou their behalf, declared for no parley and a tight to a finish.

All Dressed Up . . - If Hitler attacks Russia he will do so because for one thing he is desperate for oil and for food. He has a long war on his hands, precious little oil to tight it with, and a Eurojie facing semi-starvation next winter. Hitler is a criminal, -but hurulv a fool. If ho makes war on the Soviet he will do so because he must, or is actuated by reasons ot high strategy having an ultimate bearing on the war in the West. As we have seen, his opitt ion of tlie German Army is such that lie says, bv implication, that he can de feat tlie Red Army, which anyhow made an indifferent showing against the Finns More than this, he has about 6.000.000 mon under arms. Unem ploved armies rot. and hero is one the greater part of which cannot readily be used. It looks like an army nil dress od up and no place to go.

Long-Tenn War.— Britain s resis’ once plus her increasing hitting powoi allied with American aid lias forced Hitler into long-term planning It may be that be Mieves Hie longest way round the shortest way home If he still wants Suez lie may have demanded ITotit Stalin a rigid of way through the Caucasus so as to march down into Iraq and Iran, taking JD British in tlie rear Another .-sissibility is that Hitler recognizing - potential ’hrea’ from the Soviet, nas determined to destrot her armies seize Iter resources and render her innocuou.t'Cfore swinging hack to tlie west to meet the challenge of Britain and America Whatever is in Hitler's mind, it will emerge soon enough.