RANDOM NOTES

Dominion, Volume 32, Issue 303, 20 September 1939, Page 8

RANDOM NOTES

Sidelights On Current Events

(By

Kickshaws.)

The Soviets appear to be recognizing Slovakia, but the German people at present don't seem to recognize the Soviet’s game.

Suburban hairdressers, it is contendl- - muse oblige customers ‘by taking bets. Some good snips could be expected.

Modern roads; provide for a strip of grass in the centre, says a visitor. These days of sprouting grass on the household plot, our sympathies are extended to the fellow who mows the grass from Auckland, to Wellington.

Efforts to assess the developments of the last fortnight can only be undertaken by following up a series of clues which at the moment are being disclosed in small and puzzling instalments. One can learn to form one’s own views, however, by obtaining as clear a general outlook as possible. It is probable that there is nobody in the world at the moment who could predict events of the next two months. There are, however, many with a grasp of international shuffles who could produce something very close to the mark. Meanwhile, readers anxious to form their own conclusions may be guided partly by the past and partly by an innate shrewdness cultivated in their own selves. It is probable that Hitler himself does not know exactly whether the Russians will go according to plan. Stalin is probably just as suspicious of Hitler. Future mutual action based on suspicion is as nearly unpredictable as the end of the world. Usually, when the wolf lies down with the lamb the odds are against the lamb. If two vultures arrive to clean up the carcase one can never be sure that the vultures will not fall out over the tit-bits.

When Hitler announced his nonaggression pact with Russia the price he had to pay for this action was not disclosed. It was not disclosed, furthermore, if any further secret agreements had been included. The curtain has risen sufficiently for those who have watched events to realize part of the price Hitler had to pay. It seems indeed a high price to have to conquer Poland and. give a foreign power half the conquered territory. The price that Germany has already paid for Russian acquiescence is therefore the lives of her soldiers in Poland, the wastage of war material in that campaign, and the arrival of the Communistic frontier 200 miles nearer Germany. A further price, of course, is the fact that after the Polish campaign ends the German people will be left vvitli a long and serious war ou their Western frontiers, the end of which is not even remotely to be predicted. The longer it lasts the less the German chances of a satisfactory peace.

Just what the reaction of the German people will be when they wake up to realize that Hitler has sold their heritage to the Communistic party in Russia is probably predictable. Exactly when they will wake up is not predictable. Meanwhile, one has to view the subject from the Russian aspect. It has been an open fact ever since the Russian revolution that the Communis- ’ tic party in Russia failed to impose their policies on other countries by peaceful methods. It is, however, a tenet of their policy that the best opportunity for spreading Communism arises in war-time. The most fertile soil in war is the chaos that arises when a nation is defeated. This state of affairs is present in Poland, at Russia’s back door. The Russians will have very little difficulty in reconstructing huge areas of Poland after their own maimer. The Red front, therefore, has moved 200 miles westward. Indeed, the Germans may have difficulty in stopping the spread of Communism at their own frontier. There are in Germany already 5,000.000 Communists, and judging by reports they have not been inactive. Russia naturally jumped at an offer for a foreign Power to conquer Poland for her and the chance of extending Russian policies into areas which hitherto had appeared to offer impenetrable bulwarks. Hitler has sold the heritage of the German people for advantages of a temporary nature.

There are many more far-reaching factors that cannot possibly have passed 1 the notice of keen diplomats in Russia as regards the situation in the war between Hitler and the democracies of France and Britain. Hitler has obtained a temporary advantage, but. at what a price. His only chance of obtaining supplies in the war of attrition that appears inevitable is through Russia. He has no money with which to pay for those supplies. Russia, therefore, can call the tune. If Hitler floes not bow to Russian plans Stalin can cut off his supplies. Hitler, therefore, must tend more and more to become a vassal of Russia. He will find it increasingly difficult to go counter to Russian views. By cutting off supplies to Germany Russia will be in a position to end the war with the defeat of the Nazis. She -may do this when she feels Germany is sufficiently ripe for the spread of Communistic policies. It will mean revolution in Germany, the end of Nazi influence and the start of Russian influence. On the other hand, Russia can control the democracies by threatening to increase supplies to Germany if the democracies do not fall into line. Hitler, therefore, has not only sold the German birthright to Russia, but has embezzled the heritage of every other Power, neutral or otherwise.

Russia is a very large country. It is difficult for her West face to understand what her East face is saying. Recent events in the East, therefore, are of significance in that temporarily Stalin is free to concentrate on Russian policies in the West. Nevertheless, there are serious differences between Russia and Japan over a host of points. It is inconceivable, for example, that Russia could sit back and tolerate the conquest of China by Japan. If she does that she cuts off her face in the East. Japan, on the other hand, is only too anxious to be given a free hand in China in order to extricate herself from a mess. This is the factor which is influencing Japanese diplomacv in the East at the moment. It may not be the factor which will influence events always in the more distant future. Russia is just as anxious nor. to produce a war on two fronts as was Germany. When the European policies of Russia are well under way she will be forced to turn her attention to the march of events in China. There have been previous armistices in the unofficial war between Rusisa and Japan. They have not succeeded in keeping the peace. Differences of a fundamental nature make a lasting understanding very difficult. Maj be those who ponder these factors ill be able to form their own opinions concerning what. at. present appears to be a very complex and puzzling series of events.