CHESSBOARD MOVES IN EUROPE

Dominion, Volume 30, Issue 255, 24 July 1937, Page 8 (Supplement)

CHESSBOARD MOVES IN EUROPE

Prophesy’s Realisation DICTATORSHIPS AND DEMOCRACY Deadlock in Spain Writing from Berlin to the “New York Times” early in May, Mr. Frederick Birchtill made an interesting analysis of the interniftional position in Europe and the developments he detluced would arise. A swiftly-realised prophecy, contained in his penultimate paragraph, was the suggestion that to end the Spanish dea’dlock, so embarrassing to Italy on account of the failure of her “volunteers” to break it, would be action by Herr Hitler and not Signor Mussolini directed to restoring a state of flux without prejudicing General Franco’s chances and without open commitment.

The changing circumstances in the Balkans and their possible influence on the balance of power were also discussed in his analysis, which explains much of the background of events recorded in the cabled news which reaches New Zealand. If one took a map of Continental Europe and inserted red and blue pins in it to mark the scenes of recent and projected conferences signifying concentrated diplomatic manoeuvring, the map would be full of pins, wrote Mr. Birchall. There would, be red pins at Paris, Brussels, The Hague, Prague and Belgrade, indicating efforts of democratic countries to get together for purposes of stabilisation along the lines of a liberal understanding. And there would be blue pins at Venice, Home, Bucharest, Berchtesgaden, Berlin and Warsaw to show centres where two great dictatorships are forging new ties between themselves and smaller countries which might naturally fall within their orbit. For the Good, Perhaps. An interesting question a't present is whether these activities promise more stability for Europe or less. To this it is difficult to provide a concrete answer. Perhaps on the whole the effect thus far has been good. Dictatorship has not had’ a monopoly of initiative. Democracy has abandoned its attitude of stunned surprise over assertive wickedness and is bestirring itself to meet it. Dictatorship has been put more or less on the defensive, but is doing well nevertheless. There was for a time a single axis—that of Rome-Berlin —about which the whole world was expected to revolve. There is now another —London-Paris — toward which the Scandinavian countries and Dow Countries are tending to adhere. It is a movement toward peace and prosperity by way of bettei understanding and greater freedom of trade. It moves slowly, but, as. its .influence extends, the area of militarism and force becomes restricted. The Rome-Berlin axis lias not revolved re- j cefftly quite as freely as it did. Evidently lubrication was required; I hence the Venice conference between Signor Mussolini of Italy and Dr. Schuschnigg of Austria, Dr. Hjalmar Schacht’s trip to Brussels, the innumerable visits being exchanged between German and Italian journalists, publishers, industrialists, youth leaders and Labour Front leaders, and the journeys of the German Foreign Minister, Baron von Neurath, and the Reichswehr Minister, General von Blomberg, to Rome, all to culminate perhaps in a heart-to-heart communion of the Fuehrer and- the Duce,. the two great motive powers of the axis. After that the axis will hum. There are some who counselled “Look out for storms the second week of May,” font st storm at that time was improbable. Even ‘a dictatorship must have heart for other people’s rejoicing. Besides, Mussolini has his hands full in Ethiopia and is in none too good a state financially, and Hitler has his Four-Year Plan to put oyer, which threatens to drain to the limit the existing German resources. The Rival Camps. So jerliaps this is as good a time irs any to evaluate the prospects immediately ahead of the rival ideologies. Any such estimate must begin Dy taking account of two facts not directly connected with conferences but nevertheless motivating them. These facts are British rearmament, which has changed the entire European picture, and the consequent drawing eloser together of the two dictatorship systems, Nazism and Fascism. It has been consistently asserted that, despite temporary indications to the contrary, Hitler and Mussolini would be found in close partnership whenever the time came for a showdown. Every development of the last six months has ended to confirm that view. The partnership has not yet reached the stage of an outright military alliance which would be ir direct challenge to the rest of the world, but that is not necessary at present, and all is set for its declaration whenever the time is deemed ripe.

There are two factors that must never be forgotten in any analysis of the European situation, for they are vital: the self-strengthening of democracy after a long period of complacenf confidence, and the closer association of powers whose designs this strengthening threatens to confront with an unsurmountable obstacle.

In the present and pending conferences the objectives are divided into three main groups. There is, first, an effort on the part of Great Britain to promote a Western European pact of non-aggression and mutual reliance in case of need. In this effort Erance, beset by internal economic troubles, is being dragged along as a hesitating and somewhat reluctant partner. The main object just now is to include Belgium, while granti ing the independence she craved, in a sufficiently definite understanding to insure her co-operation in resisting any aggression westward. German Forebodings. This, though unavowed, was the motive of Mr. Eden’s conferences in Brussels at the end of April. They outwardly went well enough to arouse the direst German forebodings, but the extent of actual Belgian commitments is probably open to doubt. Second, and concurrently, there were the soundings, undertaken by Dr. Paul Van Zeeland, of Belgium, to ascertain the possibilities of bringing the world back to a more peaceful outlook by the removal of trade barriers and the inauguration of financial co-operation. It was partly this movement which drew Dr. Schacht to Brussels, and started Maurice Frere, who is Van Zeeland’s ablest economic aide, on a tons *

to Paris, London, The Hague, Berlin, and Warsaw. It must bo confessed that its prospects are the least encouraging of the three. Germany is definitely out of any such international effort except at her own price, which is regarded as utterly prohibitive. The price includes gold credits or outright loans; colonies, which Great Britain is effectively prohibited by Home and Dominion public opinion from granting, and certain vaguer demands whose extent, while never publicly set forth, arouses general uneasiness. Any economic and financial co-oper-ation which does not include Germany is scarcely to be considered. Therefore the prospects of a new economic conference to solve the world’s ills may be regarded as distinctly in the discard. Dictatorial Inspiration. The third group of conferences is wholly of dictatorial inspiration. In them definite developments may be noted. At Venice, Austria has been plainly notified through her Chancellor that the period of Italian protection against Nazification has come to an end, and that she must make the best terms she can with Hitler and his cohorts. Not again will Italian troops speed to the Brenner Pass to maintain Austria’s Government against either an assault from without or internal revolution. Italy and Germany are now united in a larger partnership, which cannot be endangered by minor complications. Thus Anschluss, in effect or by open acknowledgment, comes again into the foreground as a prospect for the immediate future. It is doubtful that France will move a single soldier to prevent it. The Little Entente has long been disintegrating. The two most powerful of its three members have been hamstrung so far as Austria is concerned, by a skilful policy of bribes and cajolery, backed by economic threats. Change in Austria. Thus the evil day that has loomed ahead for Austria since Dr. Dollfuss fell under the bullets of his Nazi assassins now seems really at hand. It probably will not be necessary to move a single battalion across the Bavarian border. The change will come from within Austria. Apart from turning Italy into a new’ course regarding Austria, the conference at Venice registered a distinct advantage for Germany by admitting her to an equal partnership with Italy in the economic and political reorganisation of the Danubian Basin, which means a further isloation of Czechoslovakia. It is in this direction that present German expansionist aspirations lie. The Reich is quite willing to mark time in the West while she consolidates her position to the south-east. If she can share the markets and raw material supplies of the Balkan Danubian States, she will be a long way toward ameliorating some of her present economic troubles. In partnership with Italy the way will be easier. That prospect immediately sent Nicholas Tltulescu of Rumania hotfoot to Paris in the hope of reviving and strengthening the Little Entente. But France is a long way from the Danube, and has neither funds to spare nor energies to waste in that direction. M. Titulescu has lost his hold in Rumania, and. so his mission was wholly a forlorn hope. Weak Nations Look to Britain, With Austria abandoned and Czechoslovakia isolated, the way is now open for the successive engulfment of both. There is nothing to hinder this except a disagreeable repercussion from the west, and the likelihood of this has diminished. Nevertheless, both Vienna and Prague pray for a speeding up of British rearmament, to which they pin their faith as a deterrent factor against aggression. Their only misgiving is about the pace of its execution. If, in the meantime, Czechoslovakia can keep open her diplomatic side doors to Budapest and Vienna, there is hope that she can survive the intervening months of peril; but Hungary, although she has moved perceptibly away from the German orbit since the death of Goemboes, is a doubtful quantity. Austria and Czechoslovakia alone are too weak to make even a semblance of a strong front. Since all the fruits of the Venice conference went to Germany, it may be asked what price is to be paid and what was the immediate occasion for the sudden Italian change of front. The answer apparently lay in Spain and was probably the occasion for General Hermann Goering’s subsequent visit to Rome. It is admitted the subject of the general’s conversations with Mussolini was Spain; the rest is not hard to deduce. The Spanish Deadlock. The Spanish deadlock, and the utter failure of the Italian “volunteers” to break it, left Italy in a difficult situation. She must extricate herself, while at the same time insuring a victory, if possible, to General Francisco Franco’s forces. Mussolini dare not risk a general war by further efforts. Hitler, however, might conceivably do something to break the deadlock without an open commitment. The aspect of the European chessboard changes constantly, sometimes so quickly and by such devious moves it is difficult to follow them or see in advance the probable outcome. For the moment democracy is holding her own, but there is need for swift solution of its internal troubles and for top speed in its military strengthening. |