DANGERS IN EUROPE

Dominion, Volume 30, Issue 41, 12 November 1936, Page 16

DANGERS IN EUROPE

Mutual Hatreds Intensified

GERMANY’S POSITION “Pertmax,” the noted French observer of political events, outlines in the following article the new dangers in Europe. Germany’s position, he sums up in the following language, which, he says, might be used by her leader. “Are you willing to mind your own business, to let us have a relatively free hand in Central and Eastern Europe—that is, on and around the Danube, on the shores of the Baltic and in Ukraine? If you answer in the affirmative, we shall pledge our country to respect for ever the French aud Belgian frontiers. "But if France claims the right to come to the rescue of Czechoslovakia and Russia, should these nations become embroiled in a conflict with Germany; if Great Britain, as the guarantor of the western treaty, should reserve her freedom to regard as lawful such an attack by France against her eastern neighbour and to support it, then we much prefer to keep clear from every commitment.”

Such is the problem—the only problem, as I see it. For years it has been obscured by a swarm of subsidiary issues. Whoever wishes- to understand the development of the European conflict must be careful never to lose sight of it. Germany offers peace to Western Europe practically on the condition that she be allowed to build up a formidable empire in the central and eastern part of the continent. But such an expansion on Germany’s part would place at her disposal an economic power and a man power automatically conferring an unchallengeable rule upon her. In the last analysis, she requires from France and England an act of boundless faith in her own peaceful intentions. Dominant Question. Up to now the European Powers, great and small (except a few neutrals) have selected their associations and their friendships and have directed their foreign policy according to their attitude toward this dominant question. The Powers which wish to safeguard the present territorial status quo have more or less banded themselves to promote the principle of the “indivisibility of peace.” Those which strive to overturn the treaties of .1919-1920 and to bring about new partitions of territory have adhered to the German theory of bilateral pacts or of the divisibility of peace. But, now, as the outcome of the electoral victory of the Popular Front in France and of its social repercussions, and, still more, because of the turmoil in Spain, the group of Power's devoted to the maintenance of international peace risks being rent asunder.

The German and Italian dictators have been charged with interfering in the convulsions of Spain and lending assistance to the generals who revolted against the Spanish Government. Hitler aud Mussolini have loudly proclaimed through their controlled Press that they deserve the approval of all men who stand for social order against Communism. Franco-Soviet Treaty. For a long time, it had been believed by many that the Russian Revolution had stabilised itself, that a new society was gradually emerging in Moscow and that the propaganda for a universal upheaval had subsided. Last year the Franco-Soviet treaty was signed upon that assumption, which was generally entertained iu Paris and even in Loudon. To-day, in view of what has occurred in Spain, that opinion is being revised by many. Vehement charges are once more being brought against Moscow. It has been feared that Hitler and Mussolini might use Spain's tragedy to disturb the equilibrium in the Mediterranean. It has been charged—and denied —that they wish to secure points of vantage for their fleets iu tlie Balearic and Canary Islands. Warship and aeroplane bases on these islands would enable them to disrupt the maritime communications of France with her African Empire, both in the Atlantic and in the Mediterranean. Thus they could interfere with the mobilisation of the French army, which cannot be put on a war footing without the addition of overseas forces.

But i throughout Western Europe, people who hate the revolutionary spirit: are inclined to make light of those dangerous possibilities. For them the most important point is that revolution should not spread. As to the rest, they are ready to take risks. Will it Come to Grief? , To hold Germany in cheek, France, after all, may succeed in gathering an impressive League of Peace. Iu London, on July 23, Mr. Eden agreed to M. Blum's forceful declaration that to divide Europe into two parts—one part sheltered against war by a new western treaty and the other deprived of every real guarantee against aggression—would be tantamount to bringing a general conflict nearer. But if a fresh issue cuts across the first one —if it appears that resistance to pan-Germanism means jeopardising social order—the League of Peace bids fair to come to grief before it has attained any substantial form. In short, the Spanish tragedy has supplied Germany with a very telling argument on the eve of the Five-Power Conference.