BRITAIN’S SUSTAINED RECOVERY

Dominion, Volume 27, Issue 34, 3 November 1933, Page 11

BRITAIN’S SUSTAINED RECOVERY

Brightening Trade Prospects Emphasised

OPTIMISTIC BANK REVIEW Business Revival: Monetary Policy Justified By Telegraph.—Press Assn.—Copyright. (Received November 2. 7.5 p.m.) Loudon, November 2. The “Midland Bank Review,” in an article on “Business Recovery in the Sterling Group,” says:— “It is now recognised by almost everyone that a sustained recovery in the general economic conditions of this country has been talcing place for some time. This is a matter for much more than national satisfaction, since Great Britain exercises an almost unequalled influence in the trend of economic affairs throughout the world. “Britain lias become the centre of a vast area of trade, both national and international, in currencies based on tlie pound sterling, so that on physical measurements alone the behaviour of the pound in relation to commodities is perhaps the strongest single factor in world conditions, even allowing for the force of monetary and political disturbances arising from other parts of the world.”

The writer then surveys the course of economic conditions in the principal countries of the sterling area, citing especially the recovery of Australia and New Zealand. He concludes by saying: “The main point, emerging from the survey is that since our departure from gold our recovery has been steady. “It has paid us already a handsome dividend, and has enabled us to follow a monetary policy well calculated to induce a steady revival of business: consequently it has facilitated recovery over a very large part of the world. Its benefits must in the course of time extend to every quarter of the globe.” STRONG POSITION Britain’s Opportunity WORLD MARKETS London, November 1. Lord Melechett, speaking at the luncheon of the Cast Iron Research Association, said that Britain had not possessed such an opportunity for industrial progress and expansion since 1930. “Our chief competitors,’’ he said, “are in nothing like such a relatively strong position as five yefars ago. Britain has now a better chance than ever of outstripping her competitors in the world markets.” INDUSTRY’S OPTIMISM World on Road to Recovery TRADE FORECAST London, November 1. The Federation of British Industries, in its trade forecast for the Inst quarter of 1933, says: “Despite many unfavourable factors still operating in the international field, particularly the recent setback in the United States, it is possible to view the future with optimism. “The world may be said to have planted its feet so firmly on the road to recovery that it will take something more drastic than transitory events like instability of the French franc and the American dollar to divert it from its course. Even if there is some modification of the gold standard and a further appreciable flight from the dollar, there is no reason why we should be unable to retain control of the domestic situation. The same is true of many other countries.” BRITISH REVENUE Increases Over Last Year (British official Wireless.) Rugby, November 1. Last night’s revenue returns show that for the first time since May 27 the floating debt has been reduced below £1.006.000.000. It now stands at £985,010,000. Individual items of the current year’s revenue are coining in well. Increases over the figures for the corresponding period of last year are shown of £5.440,000 in estates duties; £2.050,000 in stamps; £7,034.000 in Customs, and £1.400.000 iu net receipts from the Post Office. Income tax so far this year has yielded £2.650,000 less than in 1932 at £50.850.000, but last week it. produced £1.075.000. or £425.000 more than in the corresponding period of last year.

SHIPPING FIGURES Further Sign of Revival . L. (British Official Wireless.) (Received November 2, 7 p.m.) Rugby, November 1. A further sign of trade revival is afforded in shipping movements at United Kingdom ports during November. Board of Trade statistics show that the net tonnage of vessels arriving in foreign trade during September with cargo showed an increase of 9.4 per cent, as compared with the corresponding month of last year, while the departures with cargo Were of 3.6 per cent, greater tonnage. Arrivals in ballast wore 3 per cent, and departures 9 per cent, greater. Coasting trade arrivals and departures with cargo rose by 5.7 and 5.5 per cent, respectively, and ballast movements were 9.1 and 9.7 per cent, heavier.

In the third quarter of 1933 foreign trade shows an increase of 4.5 per cent. In cargo entrances and of about 3 per cent, in egrgo clearances as compared with the September quarter of 1932.

UPWARD MOVEMENT

Long and Thorny Path

Although the latest evidence of the trend of industrial and commercial activity at home and abroad remains on the whole encouraging, it would be idle to deny I hat the path to prosperity is still long and thorny, says the “Economist of September 30. in its monthly review of irix’o. Nevertheless, it now seems almost beyond doubt that the trade cycle is on IJe, upward movement, and. after a false start in the summer of 1932. has come through the holiday period without serious mishap. Progress is slow, and many elements —political and economic — iu tlie situation, remain obscure, but there is ground for hope that, in the absence of a further deterioration in the United States, coupled with an aggravation of tlie political difficulties on the European Continent, improvement in the world economic situation will continue in the near future. . , , . , , The revival in the world’s industrial activity has been accompanied b.v an improvement in the position of a large section of primary producers. With a few exceptions, the output of industrial raw materials does not now exceed current consumption at the prevailing level of prices. In many cases, stocks aecumuinted in recent years have begun to decline. and prices, though generally below the peak reached in July, have not declined further during the past month. International trade, though still restricted b.v exchange fluctuations and numerous artificial hindrances, has not declined further. In fact, many rawmaterial producing countries, including Australia and South Africa, have been able to increase their purchases from foreign countries owing to the increase in their purchasing power. So far as Britain is concerned, there is evidence of a sustained, if modest, improveriient. The Ministry of Labour was able to record a further increase in employment during August. Unemployment shows a decrease on the month in tlie majority of industries, and. out of a total of-102 branches of activity separately listed in the “Ministry of Labour Gazette.” only four, including public works contracting, recorded an increase in unemployment on last year. Railway goods traffic receipts continued to expand and both imports and. exnorts in August showed an increase on July and on the corresponding month last year. The financial position of the United Kingdom remains sound, and interest rates are as low as ever.