The Dominion SATURDAY, JANUARY 12, 1929. A PESSIMISTIC PREDICTION.

Dominion, Volume 22, Issue 92, 12 January 1929, Page 8

The Dominion SATURDAY, JANUARY 12, 1929. A PESSIMISTIC PREDICTION.

It is' neither encouraging nor comforting to be told by the Chief’ol d.= British -MM spite of everybody s idea of Geo rge Milne at the happen in our tune. importance of the Territorials. One “™ s “tat lTdid 5 ..0 need such a disquieting prediction as an argument for stimulating the Territorial movement unless he felt the effldeney of is it imprackable, if not qu.tand that it is, therefore, wise and . • 1 1 j Chief emergencies. But when such a responsible authority as the Uuei of thT Imperial General Staff asserts in positive terms tha mobilisation will happen in our time, then, assuming that he Ks *been correctly reported, he is either speaking from a knowledge of circumstance/of sufficient gravity to warrant such a statement or he is indulging in regrettable scaremongering. In any 'case, the Field-Marshal’s prediction is likely to prove somewhat disconcerting to the friends of the peace movement. 11 - public, both in Britain and elsewhere, will probably mquue why an against whom it will be necessary to mobilise. Intel national suspicion, which recently seemed to have been lulled a little may be stirred once again. The statement should not be left where it is. Foreknowledge of circumstances likely to develop a fjitm e crisis provocative of war enables those whose business it is to preven such a calamity to examine the danger-points and use the utmost resources of diplomacy to reduce their inflammability. If we have to admit, after our recent appalling experience, that a crisis beyond the competency of diplomacy to handle is sti 1 conceivable, then the outlook for permanent peace is by no means hopeful. While Sir George Milne, on the British side, asserts in so many words that war is not only possible, but probable ‘ in our time, General von Seeckt, described by the foreign, editor of the i- alls Matin as Germany’s greatest military authority, has been giving his‘reasons why war, for the present at least, cannot be t tiled out as a possibility. He notes that the nations everywhere are actively occupied in making their armaments reach the highest level of modem technique, and organising militarily in a manner conforming to then respective needs and policy, and comes to the opinion that the problem is’much more political than military.

“I believe,” he says, ‘“that after the Kellogg Fact no one can expect to see an offensive war or a war of conquest. But in spite of that, ana in spite of the banning of war as a means of national policy, I can also see that the worry of security remains very active. Security is made up of various elements: natural resources, boundaries naturally or artificially formed, lines of communication, alliances, guarantees, etc. The worry about security, the fear of being exposed to the violent attacx of an adversary, is an element of the first importance. As long as the political situation 'permits it to be believed that such an attack is possible, every State that has not been disarmed by force will prepare its defence through armaments. ... In my judgment, it is not the reduction of armaments that will make Europe definitely peaceful, but a compromise among the various Governments which, despite great obstacles, is possible, and which must keep in mind the particular interests of each country.” z Von Seeckt’s charge that the nations are busily engaged in perfecting the technique of their armaments is unfortunately tiue. There has been a measure of reduction in naval armaments, but, on the other hand, the raising of the efficiency of what remains and of the military and aerial services has been greatly intensified. . Happily, whatever the degree of their activities on the armaments side, thei e is evidence at the same time of at. least equal concentration upon the peaceful settlement of political issues. Progress m this latter respect, however, is not likely to be healthily stimulated v by suca unsettling prophecies as that which Sir George Milne has permitted himself to voice. . -