FALLING BIRTH RATE

Dominion, Volume 21, Issue 116, 14 February 1928, Page 10

FALLING BIRTH RATE

NEW LOW LEVEL RECORD INDICATED FURTHER DECLINE IN DEATH RATE INFANTILE MORTALITY AGAIN DOWN Figures supplied by the Government Statistician in the monthly Abstract of Statistics indicate that the record low Dominion birth-rate established in , 1926 will show a decline to a still lower level for 1927, The death rate shows an appreciable decline. The infantile mortality rate for the Dominion is expected to show an improvement on the record low rate for 1926. * The Government Statistician states that the statistics of births and deaths for the fourteen urban areas of New Zealand are now available for the year 1827. Figures covering the whole of the Dominion, however, cannot be ascertained for some time. Nevertheless, as the urban areas comprise over 50 per cent, of the total population of the Dominion, it is possible to foresee approximately the birth and death rates for the whole country. The urban areas, in the aggregate, invariably have a Somewhat lower birth-rate, and somewhat higher rates qf deaths and of infantile mortality, than the Dominion as a whole. The bifth statistics for the five years 1922-26, with those for the urban area? for 1927 are as follow:— Rate per 1000

The figures show that for the first time since 1923, the number of births registered in the urban areas has shown a decrease during the year 19?7. . A? a rule, the numper of births registered, both for the Dominion a? a whole and for the urban areas, shows a slight increase year by year, atlhough such inqrease is not usually sufficient to pro. duce a corresponding rise in the birthrate (with the exception of the 1926 urban-area rate). It is therefore not surprising to note the rather substantial' decrease in the urban-area Birth-rate for 1927, in view of the conditions outlined above. At the same time, it is worthy of remark that this rate is the lowest so far recorded for the urban areas, and, moreover, it is indicative that the record low Dominion birth-rate established in 1926 will this year decline to a still lower level, This is all, the more probable when cognizance is taken of the fact that the births registered throughout the Dominion during the first nine months of the year 1927 show an actual decrease in numbers as compared with the figures for the corresponding portion of the previous year. Lower Death-rate. A slightly more favourable position is rgyealefi in the statistics of deaths, the figures for the five year? 1922-26, with those for the urban areas for 1927, be.

With the absence of any noticeable epidemics during 1927, it follows that tlie year should show a decrease in thq number of deaths, especially as the previous vear experienced two fairly substantial epidemics—viz., one of influenza and ope of whooping-cough. Tips expectation, is substantiated by the urban-area figures, which indicate that the deaths of 6393 persons were registered therein during 1927, tin? nupfoer being a decrease of 76 over 1926. The death-rate also shows an appreciable decline, and it is reasoiii able to suppose from the indications that this decline will be reflected in the death-rate for the whole of the Dominion. The decline, however, of the Dominion death-rate will tot be sufficient to bring the figure to the re« cord low level established :n 1924 and 1925. Infantile Mortality. The Government Statistician remarks that, considering the exceptionally low rates of infantile mortality achieved in New Zealand for many years past, it is more or less unreasonable to ex* pect an unbroken succession of annual decreases in this rate, lhe slight increase recorded for 1927 in the inmfit mortality rate for the urban areas (45.12 as compared with 44,47 for 1926) may be regarded, therefore, as of little importance comparatively, The figures for the five years 1922--6, with those for the urban areas for 1927,

The Dominion fir i<»‘ the first nine moiiths of the s 19211 and show a very substar 1 decline for tlie latter year, and there is every prospect that, in spite of a heavy fall m the number of births registered durinq the same period, the infantile mortal-, ity rate for New Zealand as a whole will show some improvement on the record low rate of 39.76 recorded W 19. A

Number. of population Urban Urban Year. Pominiop. areas, Dominion. areas. 1922 29,006 12,815 23,17 30,62 1923 ... 27,967 12,420 21.94 19.58 1024 28.014 12,699 21.57 19.58 1025 .,. 28,158 12,728 31.17 18,95 1926 ... 28,473 13,334 31.05 19.24 1927 — 13,053 = 18.29

ing as follow:— Kate per 1000 Number of population Do- Urban Dourban Year. minion. areas.minion, area?. 1922 .. .... 10,977 5755 8.77 9.96 1023 .. ... 11,511 6009 9.03 9.57 1924 .. .... 10,767 5798 8.29 8,85 1925 .... 11,026 5944 8.29 8.85 1920 ... 11,819 6469 8.74 9;33 1927 .. — 6393 -— 8.96

are as follow:— Rate per 1009 Of population Do- Urban minion, areas. Yeaf. Number Dominion. Urban area#. . 1922 ... 1215 599 <1.89 46.74 1923 .. 1225 O' ’ 90 50.16 1924 ... 1127 r 23 44-39 1925 .. 1125 96 44.70 1926 1927 ... U32 r-' 76 44.4 I 45.12