The Dominion. TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 1921. TRADE REVIVAL IN BRITAIN

Dominion, Volume 14, Issue 306, 20 September 1921, Page 4

The Dominion. TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 1921. TRADE REVIVAL IN BRITAIN

Some of the leading commercial and financial authorities in Great Britain arc more inclined to emphasise what is serious in the existing state of trade and industry in that country than to countenance optimistic hopes of early recovery. In spite of their attitude, however, thb opinion is evidently gaining ground that a trade revival has set in which may be expected,to expand, though perhaps not very rapidly. Although the sitflfcition still holds some features of uncertainty, a measure of optimism is clearly justified. Much as toe country has been weakened and burdened by the coal strike and other troubles, it has made considerable progress in adjusting itself to new economic conditions. Wholesale prices have been substantially reduced, and in nearly all important industries wage-reductions have been agreed to which at once pave the way for a reduction in. retail prices, and help to create conditions in which trade may be expected to expand. It is one of the biggest factors of all that the price of coal has been materially reduced, though a further reduction is declared to be necessary in order that industries now stagnant may be revived, and a much-needed stimulus applied to the shipping trade, which takes a commanding place in British national economy. One of yesterday’s cablegrams from London mentioned that the newspapers are carrying on a campaign against high food prices, alleging that the retailers are making excessive profits. The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Sir’Robert Horne) appealed not long ago for a general > reduction in retail prices in the interests of trade revival. The reduction in retail prices, he said, had followed very tardily upon the decline in wholesale prices, and ho suggested that the retail traders of the country would consult their own interests if they faced the present situation at once, and even at certain loss brought their prices to such a level as would enable consumers to buy s Those who believe, with Sir Robert Horne, that the country is now 'in the early stages of a definite revival in trade are able to point to something mqre than the general reduction in working costs in support of that belief. The volume of unemployment, though still serious, has been diminishing steadily since the coal strike was settled, and figures of foreign trade over the same period also show gradual improvement. The valufe. of exports from the United Kingdom was greater by thirteen millions sterling in August than in June, the last month of the coal strike. Even with this improvement, however, export trade shows a heavy decline from the figures recorded in the opening months of this year. A comparison of Britain's current and pre-war trade on the basis of quantities indicates that she must more than double her' present volume of exports in order to recover full prosperity. It is computed that the volume of exports during the first six months of this year represented only 45.90 per cent, of the 1913 figure, and it now seems hardly possible that the volume of export trade can touch as high a level during the second half of this year as it did during the first half. On the basis of money values, exports would Jiave to average 68 millions per month during t)ie remaining’ four months of the year, as compared with 51 millions in August, before any improvement would be shown upon the figures of the six months ending in June last. Obviously, there is a great deal of ground to be covered in restoring the prosperity of trade and industry in the United Kingdom. AU that can be claimed meantime is that progress is being made in the right direction, but it is, of course, to be expected that as this progress continues conditions will become easier and trade will expand.

The figures of public revenue ar.e not without a bearing on the trade and industrial outlook , in the United Kingdom, and in this connection the Chancellor of the Exchequer offered some interesting, evidence, during a recent debate in the House of Commons, that the prosperity of the country was not as disastrously affected by the coal strike and other adverse factors as might have been anticipated. Opposition members commented on the fact that the revenue for the June quarter of this year was only 282 millions, as compared with 394 millions in the same period last year—a decline of 112 millions—while expenditure, on the same basis showed a decline of only a little over seven millions. Sir Robert Horne, however, pointed out that the June quarter was normally one of the lean quarters, and that the abnormal figure'of the June quarter last year was explained by, income from miscellaneous revenue, which often came in in a most irregular way. In regard to returns from taxation, the.incometax figures for the June quarter this year showed an increase of ten millions on those of last year, and Excise duties, on tho same basis, showed an increase of six millions. Admitting that returns from excess profits duty showed a big decline from tho estimate, Sir Robert Horne maintained that the Excise figures, indicating a greatly increased national expenditure on liquid refreshments, were rather startling. They suggested, ba said, that more assets were spread about through the whole community than had been realised. It is, of course, a matter of general agreement that a reduction in national expenditure and a lowering of tax-

ation are essential to trade recovery, but in Britain, as fn other countries, there is acute disagreement between the Government and parties in Onnosition in regard to what is possible in that direction.

The extent to which British trade recovery will be retarded by intensified foreign competition is largely a matter of conjecture, but here, as in regard to other aspects of the question, the prevailing note is one of growing confidence. Some suggestiv® evidence has lately been offered that Germany is not by any means firmly established in the position of advantage she has lately occupied, but it of course remains true that some injury to British trade may result from Germany’s discharge of her reparation obligations. There are apparently good grounds, however, for holding that’America is likely to be affected more seriously in this way than Britain. If a creditor nation'is handicapped in existing conditions of world trade, America, as the biggest creditor nation, is presumably handicanned more seriously than any of her competitors.