THE UKRAINE FOOD FIASCO

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 280, 15 August 1918, Page 5

THE UKRAINE FOOD FIASCO

HOW THE TEUTONS HOPES WERE BLIGHTED

FACTS ABOUT THE "FORCEDPEACE"

[Tho so-called "Bread Peace" he- I tween Germany and the "Ukraine has been a sore disappointment to the Toiitonic nations, mid a source of much humiliation and embarrassment • to the German and' Austrian Governments. The following article, written for the British Ministry of In- ■ formation by Mr. W. W. Tarn, and circulated by the Royal Colonial In-' stituto, is an admirable review of tho influences which doveloped the recent fiasco in tho.Ukraine.l The peace treaty with the Ukraine of i February 9, tho "Bread Peace," raised ■ ' high hopes in Germany and Austria of a supply of grain and other-'foodstuffs from that country. Tho immediate question was a double one; were there.stocks of grain in the country, and,if so, could : they be collected and transported; while ; 'a further question .concerned tho pros-j fleets of tho IfllS harvest. Curiously; enough, Austria was :nore sanguine than : Germany; the Prime Minister, Dr. von Seidler, said. in tho Reichsrat on Feb- - mary 19: "It is beyond dispute that ' the' supplies of grain stored in the ; Ukraine are incomparably greater than [ tho amount which wo can' transport," \ and added that tho sole ciuestion was that "of getting' hold of the corn and the necessary, transport." Sopie vcty wild talk was indulged in by the Press in' both countries, as when the "Neufl. Preio Presse," on February 10. 6poko of the possibility of dispatching 1000' trucks of corn daily; tho view put about was that, as there hnd been no wennrt. the Biirnlus of tho, 1915, 4!>lG. and W harvests must all be stored in the Ukraine. But a few people, more especially in Ger-1 many, kept their heads; doubtless they j

remembered'the .similar talk about tho Italian "booty" ami what lind como of it. Consequently, wlicn Baron von Kuhlmann saitl in flip Beichstapr on February 20 that it might bo assumed that (substantial supplies of brend-gnin arid fodder existod in the. Ukraine, he was heckled by members who. wanted to know bow tbo amount of the stacks of grain there, had lyeh dof'>>'mined. Fis renlv. was noteworthy. , : "Nothing," bo said, "has been determined, and in' the existing circumstances it is not risible to .ascertain any 'precise : details. We have relied on tbo view' of experts in. the wheat department, who estimate that there must =fill be surplus stocks in tlie Ukraine. We have further relied on the statements of th» gentlemen of tho Ukrainian delegation." A Lamentable Admission. For a country that is nothing if not scientific, this admission was a lamentable one; it might well lend colour to tho assertion that the "bread peace"was a move of desperation. We can seo now that Kuhlmann was badly let in, both by his experts, who were taking a blind shot, and by the crafty Ukrainians. Tho Ukraine ISada. as we now know, never had a chance of carrying tho country against, tho Kiev Soviet. If lot alono the Soviet would havo won. The ]?ada's only chance was German support, and this had to bo paid for with corn. Without hesitation, therefore, they misrepresented tho grain position, and Kuhlmann fell a victim, as very clever people will do. ,Tho Ukrainians continued t'n carry on a regular propaganda on the subject from Switzerland. On March fl the Ukrainiau Press .Bureau .in that country gavo out that tho grain stored in tho province of Kherson alono amounted to ovor 80 million puds (say, 1,300,000 tons); and later an Ukrainian politician named Georg Gasseuks, interviewed by tho "Neua Zurchei' Nachrichten," asserted that tho Ukraine grain. supplies were "absolutely immense." This is understandable. But what were Kuhlihann's experts doing? They ought to have been «blo to warn him, for a study of tho -figures-published,-by'the Centra.! Statistical Committee in Russia would, have niado them think twice before dogmatising as to what there- "must" be in the Ukraine. The wholo affair reflects little credit on German scientific method. We must suppose tho German Government knows its own business; but its Tegular procedure of first arousing enthusiasm in Germany by highly-coloured statements, generally niado through the Wolff Bureau, and then having to damp down lhat enthusiasm, is one that the Allies find • quite satisfactory to themselves.

Russia's V/hcat Resources. The Russian figures have been mmlo available- to us by Mr. J. H. Hubback, who has an expert knowledgo of wheat. ■They relate to the Eussian Empire ns a whole. The stocks of grain in traders' hands on December 14, 1915, were 4,800,000 (metric) tons; on December 14,'1916, 1,750,1)00 tons; by March 14, 1917, they had decreased to 870,000 tons. That is, they would have vanished altogether before the end of 1917, oven had there been no Revolution; for the 1917. harvest was, ns is known, poor. Taking now the total 6tocks of tho Empire, wherever held, these on December 14, 1915, were 24,500,000 tons. On December 14, 1916, they were 16,960,000 tons.. On the' analogy of the trade figures the outside possible, therefore,' in the whole Empire in December, 1917,° would be some 8,000,COO tons,-or some 6,000,000 by March, MIS, even had there been no Revolution. Now a calculation by a Russian expert published in the "Novaya Zhizn" .of March 14, 1918, made the crops of the provinces lost to Russia (i.e., Poland, Lithuania, Baltic Provinces, BessaTabia and Ukraine) 37 per' cent, of tho whole; and this, includes tho Ukraine sugar crop, in peace about 82 per cent, of the entire Russian production. Tho Ukraine is not the greatest corn district of Russia; but suppose that even 25 per cent, out of the,37 per cent, fell "to the Ukraine, then, even without a Revolution, tho Ukraine stocks in March, 1918, could not well have much exceeded 1,500,000 tons, none of which would be in the hands of traders; and might have oeen much less. The progressive exhaustion of stacks shown above is, ol course, mainly accounted for, prior to the Revolution, hy - ! tho increased consumption (perhaps 50 / per cent.) of tho peat Army. As the ■ Leipziger Votecitung" unkindly re-' marked on March 9: "These announce-! inents of huge food stores in Russia nro I in strong contradiction to those former-' ly published, that tho Russian Army was ! not. very far removed from death by star- ' yalion." But the Revolution' enormous,- : ly quickened consumption, quite apart from any question of mere destruction I herensky requisitioned nil the cereals in ; all Russia; he could not enforce the or-, <ler, but his inspectors got a certain ' amount. Tho peasants, for so lon* deprived of vodka, set up illicit stills ; everywhere; and a report niado to Hie ' Provisional Government in July, 1917,. showed that Uiey were using far move ■' grain than before lo feed their cattle. I No doubt the peasants of the Ukraine j Btill have corn; but anyone bearing the! foregoing facts in mind would have been ! very shy of asserting that there "must" be this or that in t ! ;e country. i The Ukraine itself was never a great grain-exporting country; tho districts of Kiev, Volhynia, Podolia, Kharkov, Chernigov, and Poltava did not grow much more than enough-grain to-feed their comparatively dense population. Export largely depended on South Russian territory—Kuban, the Crimea, the country of tho Don Cossacks. Consequently tho German-Russian Economic Committee' has been claiming that the Ukraino' State should extend to tho Volga; but' that is another matter, and would mean i n fresh German war of conquest. About ; half the land in the Ukraino belonged before the Involution to large landowners, the rest to peasant farmers. The great estates were, however, much tho more productive moiety, as thev nractised scientific agriculture, while " the peasants' methods were primitive; consequently, whether the Ukraine had a surplus of grain depended almost entirely on tho great estates. The Peasants' War. . The agrarian revolution in the Ukraine followed tho lines of that in Russia, and led to what looks like the complete ruin of agriculture. In January,

1918, there began a regular peasants' war; tho landowners were driven out, and their estates seized; much destruction was done; many farmhouses havo been burnt, cattle and horses killed, agricultural machines and implements destroyed. Tho rights of ownership of tho large proprietors were annulled, and their estates nominally taken over by land committees, with a view to nationalisation; but the peasants, who were in possession, did not acknowledge the committees, and the result was anarchy; for tho peasants fear the abolition of all ownership, including their own, and see no use in working. The sugar, industry is said to be iii a desperate state, as only the big landowners grew much beet. The peasants hid their stores, which led to ['amino in tho largo towns; these could not buy grain, for tho whole machinery of trading,' tho credit and banking system, was also destroyed, and moreover there was no grain to speak of in silos or store houses. All the supplies that exist are in the hands of the peasants; but they are short of implements and even of seed-corn; the seed-corn .on the great estates has been plundered, and much of it has been fed to cattle. It does, nol I appear how tho harvest on tho great es- , tates is to be got in; thero are plenty of men, but. they will not work. A-Brit-ish officer from Rumania, who passed through tho country recently, reports : that in excellent weather for cultivation : ho saw no ono at work in the fields; he ; was also told that not 10 per cent, of tho j arable land had been cultivated. Br. ; Holubowitch, the late Prime Minister, said on April 3 that 45 per cent, of the land was sown in the autumn. He is ; hardly an impartial witness; but there 1 is evidence that the great estates were : sown with their autumn crop; so truth ; may lie bctweon tho two figures. HolI übowitch admitted that practically no •spring sowing had yet been done, but said it was not yet too late. As to cattle, ho could only say: "The situation is certainly not critical," which hardly looks like a surplus. The Eada was never much more than a German instrument; and as soon as it was clear that.its authority in the country was quite insufficient to euable it to supply-food, Germany sent an army into tho Ukraine. Austria was compelled to follow suit; she feared that the Germans, who had seized all the rolling stock, would also obtain all the available food. Ono thing that weighed with tho Gorman authorities was the fear of food being sent to Eu'ssia. Already by February 3 the Ukraine Soviet had despatched 200 wagons of grain and 2000 of coal to Petrbgrad; and on February 7 tho Petrograd Soviet issued an urgent appeal to the Ukrainian Soviet for all the food it could could send., The German troops could beat the Bolshevists in the field; but they could not give tho Eada authority, or restore trade in a country where the wholesalers had fled, the banks were shut, and the peasantry Tefused to accept current coinage. Anarchy Rampant. On March 23 a Kiev telegram to the "Deutsche Tageszeitung" stated that the Commissariat Department of the Eada reported that anarchy had reached such a pitch that tho different committees in the country declared themselves unable to deliver food, and consequently the Commissariat Ministry had appointed agents with full powers to requisition food and fodder by force; on March 30 this was followed by a semi-official statement in the' "Kolnische Zoitung" that, as tho Eada could not guarantee commerce, and Gormany could not wait, the German' Imperial Economic Office had established a supervising offico for commercial relations with the Ukraine, and the carrying out of trade, had been placed in the hands of tho Foreign Trade Companyj which had been equipped with an Imperial Commissioner /and furnished with far-rcaehing powers under Government control. This meant, in plain words, that Germany was to do tho requisitioning; and Goneral Groner was appointed to do it. .

_ It was given out in the German Press in March that the Ukraine would 6cnd 30,000 wagons of bread-corn and fodder, 2(100 of frozen meat, and'loßo of dried fruits, by tho middlo of April. Ques. tions were put to the Austrian Government; and the latter, never sorry to spoke Germany's' wheel, gavo out on April 0, that, owing to transport; difficulties, no consignments of . importance could be expected'before .Tune. Meanwhile a definite fowl agreement was boing arranged between Germany, Austria and the' Rada, though it had not been actually concluded when the Ilarta fell; the German Food Minister, von Waldow, said on May , 1 that the negotiations wero "approaching- conclusion." Bv it the Ukraine is to deliver to the Cen-' tral Powers 60 million puds (about l.OiiO.OOfl tons) of bread and fodder grain, pulse,, and oil-seeds; 6 million in April, 15 in May, 20 in June, and 19 in July. There seems no stipulation as to what proportion should be bread-corn; and the Doverty of the Ukraine is shown bv the fact that Germany could make no better arransemont than this with her own pi.itipet. Germany, of counse, overreached Austria in the bargain; Austria vns to get twice as much as Germany in the lean months April and May; Germany twice as much as Austria in Juno and July. ,' I

Anti-German Hostility. The "Bread Peace" had thus been whittled down to 1,000,000 tons of mixed supply. Even so, few now believed that even this would be delivered. The only actual'delivery recorded in the German and Austrian Press up to ,tho end of April .was one train that reached Podwolocziska in March, with 7 trucks of pulse, 17 of onions, one of soap, one of eggs, 22 of table oil, one of train oil, and 15 of empty sacks; and in return for this curiosity. Austria had had to send to the Ukraine at the end of March 100 tru.rks of flour to feed her troops, and more was to follow. The Rada had broken down, and General Groner was committed to the thankless task of attempting to collect 'hidden stocks from sin armed and hpstilo peasantry. Hope seems to have been abandoned of getting any substantial supply from tho Ukraine this harvest year, though some deliveries are now reported, to have begun., Very plainspoken articles are appearing in the German Press. Von Waldow is reported to have said that there was only enough grain in tho country to feed the German nr.ny of occupation. The Mayor of. Vienna, Herr Weiskirchner, has recently emphasised the disappointment felt over the Ukraine, and declared that Austria's only hope now lies in obtaining- further \ aid from Germany; and the Sour Food '; Ministers of tho Central Powers have met \ to see if any other means can he devised , ! of tiding Austria over. to tho next I harvest. I Moreover, the German invasion has ex- ! cited the hostility of the peasants. They i feared that Germany would make them ■ give up the appropriated estates. The ; official Bolshevist journal _ of April 5 ' said: "The brutal oppression and ex- . ploitation of the Germans is driving the i masses to open resistance. The existence 1 of the Rada is only maintained by>Gcr- : man bayonets." The "Isvestiya" of April 9 reported;that the Germans were rob- ; bing the people of everything, and . tho infuriated peasants were organising reprisals. Many of them havo of course . kept their rifles; wo hear of German : agents being stripped of everything and ; sent back, while Into in April a body | of peasants, with machine-guns, cut up a i detachment of Polish Uhlans. Tho Enda 1 became more unpopular than ever; it j had brought in the Germans to steal the peasants' food. Marshall von Eichhorn, in command of the German troops, practically ruled tho country as dictator, by n system of military courts-mar-tial. Tlk' Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture had, it seems, ordered-tho peasants to cultivate tho great estates; they toolc no notice. It was in these circumstances that von Eiohorn, in an at- , tempt at least to secure the coming harv- , est, if nothing else, issued his famous , order; tho peasants were to return all j lands and other property to their former : owners, and'to start at onco cultivating ' lb" great estates. This was in effect a declaration of war. Protests were mado against it in the Main committee of the Reichstag on April 25, not only, by the Socialists, but by men like ncrren (lotheiu and Erzberger; General von Wrisberg. for tho Government, merely replied Dint Germany could not wait, and that; in view i of the weakness of the (he demand for food, could only he carried flirough hy''fho military. Rut now even the subservient Rade revolted; it adopted a resolution declaring that such interference on the part of Germans could not ,bo permitted, and instructed tho Minister of Agriculture to direct the peasants

! to disregard von Biehorn's order. Von ; Eichorn's reply was to arrest the premi ier, the Miuisier of War, and other officials, and, in concert with the (.lei-man ambassador, Baron von Sehwartzenstcin, to place Kiev under military law in the strictest form. The liadu was afterwards overthrown with German co-op- ] oration if not by the Germans; while the ! food agreement apparently has not vet been signed (May 11). But it is really immaterial who nominally governs; the only power in (he Ukraine is-or rather, • was—von Eichorn. i]>f,iice assassinated) : and German military law. . Failure and Famine. Meanwhile a memorial drawn up by H .agricultural andouier societies in the Ukraine has declared tout the UkrauiO i itself is threatened witn famine. It j seems clear mat spring sowing has not i been dono on the groat estates, and May !is said to )» too late. The peasants ; have probably sown their own land, so .■ tar as they fiad seed com, and the au- ■ tuniu 'sowing of wheat and rye was done [ on the great estates,; but the 1918 harvest seems bound to bo a scanty one, ; oven if it can be properly got in amid ; the prevailing disorganisation, with the ; peasantry disinclined to work and hostile to the Germans, and many farmhouses, barns, and implements already destroyed. Naturally, too, tho prospects . at present are. even worse for 1919; for it w difficult to see how tho great es- . tates aro to bo sown again this autumn. ; Germany cannot supply labour; 6he can | no longer even, cultivate German land to j the best advantage. Will von Eichorn i round'.up and work tho Ukrainian peasI antry in slave gangs at tho point of the j bayonet? We wish him luck. What will happen in the Ukraine mny bo deduced from what happened in Rumania. The Central Powers, in occupying Wallachia, took over a cultivated country, and in 1910-17 Austria received 800,000 tons of grain. Next year, 1917-18, Austria received only 150,000 tons down to January, when the supply ceased. Yet it was a much easier task to see to the cultivation of Wallachia than it will be in the Ukraine. It may bo noted in conclusion that the defunct Eada, through whom Germany derives what authority she has, never made poaco cither with the Ukrainian Soviot (Germany prevented this), or with tho Russian (Moscow) Government. At

present things are chaos. Germans are no more exempt than other people from tho law that if you sow the wind you will reap the whirlwind; it looks as if it wero the chief thing the Central Powers would reap in the Ukraine. "They will manage to get some food, of course, but iprobably quite incommensurate with their expectations and their needs; and they are learning onco more that any .people will inevitably become hostile to Germany if only they see enough of Germans. The Entente peoples have little reason, so far, to be dissatisfied with the results of the "Bread Peace" to Germany. Contrast the' German fiasco with tho splendid crops which British and Arabs in unison are raising in Mesopotamia.