PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 121, 8 February 1918, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

One of yesterday's cablegrams stated that military exports in France and Britain are of opinion that Germany's big effort is imminent, and that Von Ludendoiiff's concentration of troops from Russia in tho Western theatre is now completed. To-day the British high military authority whose elucidatory comments are transmitted at intervals is credited with the statement that though the Germans were never so strong on the West front, they are not yet numerically equal to the Anglo-French armies. Set together, these statements definitely support an opinion that the Allies are in a position to await very confidently anything that Germany may attempt, The reinforcement of the German Western armies is, of course, as far as possible from being a matter of minor importance; it heavily increases the task by which the Allies are confronted, assuming that the war is to be fought to the end as a military contest. But this being understood; it is not easy to see in what way Germany can hope to gain any positive advantage by attacking the superior forces of the Allies. She has_ repeatedly failed to defeat the Allies when the odds iu men and artillery were heavily in her favour, and her prospects today aro to be measured accordingly. It will be noticed that the high military authority docs not mention the Americans, who will soon be taking ac active part in the Western campaign. * * * * In rebutting an enemy allegation that England is full of troops, tho high military authority mentions that British casualties during 1917 cxccedcd a million. Some unofficial estimates have set down British casualties in the Western theatre alone last year at 900,000. These aro staggering figures, though they leave Britain very much better off as regards tho drain upon her manhood than the Central Empires, or France, but there is to be set against them a splendid record of military achievements during a year in which Britain bore the lion's sharcv of the Allied war burdens. A very considerable proportion of the total casualties would, of course, involve only temporary disablement.

Some additional particulars are given to-day of the luival action fought in Heligoland Bight on Novwnber 17. The object of enticing the bigger German ships into the open was not attained, but tho British light squadron engaged covered itself with glory and undoubtedly gained all the honours of tho day. The nature of the risks taken is sufficiently indicated in the fact that the attacking ships penetrated the German minefield to a distance of thirty _ miles. That tho Germans avoided engagement after being challenged in this fashion seems to finally establish the retiring disposition of the High Sea Fleet. At the same time the account now given of an affair in which the enemy figured so ingloriously brings out tno fact that the High Sea Fleet is performing a function which is to tno continuation of the submarine campaign. If the enemy's defensive minefields were not protected by a powerful fleet they would soon be replaced hy minefields enclosing tho submarines in their ports.

The nature of the problem by which the Allies arc faccd in Heligoland Bight was discussed in an informative way not long ago by tho naval correspondent of the London Observer. "If the mine-sweep-ing trawlers were not there,"' ho wrote, "and were not supported by torpedo boats, light cruisers, battlecruisers, and battleships, each in their order, we should be able to make short work of the U-boats. The High Sea Fleet, therefore, is taking a vital, if inglorious, hand ia the game, and one of the principal objectives of our war policy must remain the destruction of the High Sea Fleet. With all the special resouroes for the destruction of the U-boats and for replacing the tonnage sunk, this fact must never he lost sight of. The means of its accomplishment arc not yet forged. It is, and can be, no question of rushing baldheadcd into the Bight. It is a matter for most carcful and long-headed planning, tho initial steps of which may be taken half a world's breadth away from tho estuary of tho Elbe; but it is a point which one hopes the Paris Confcreno3 has kopt carefully in mind. The presence of tho American" among the other representatives of tho Allies makes it probable that tho use of sea power has, at last, had its rightful place in the deliberations."

.This week's submarine, return shows losses almost on a level with thoso of last week. The only difference is that the number of small ships sunk is reduced by one, while the number of ships ovcr 1600 tons sent to the bottom is increased by one. Thirteen ships were unsuccessfully attacked. This is tho largest number of unsuccessful _ at. tacks recorded in any week since October last year. Particulars of unsuccessful attacks are not informative in the same degree as returns of ships sunk. Ships unsuccessfully attacked may escapc entirely scathloss or may be more or less seriously damaged. As it stands, tho return tells nothing more in reference to these ships than that they were attacked and were not sunk.

Looking at results over _ a period the downward curve in shipping losses is being maintained The average losses per week of British ships over and under 1600 tons in the eight weeks ending May 23 wero 35. In the eight weeks ending on January 2 the average losses per week in the same category were 16.5, and in the last five weeks the average has fallen to a fraction over 13. Average weekly losses of ships ovor 1600 tons have fallen in tfe same periods from 2-1 to 12.2, and now (in the last five weeks) to a fraction under ten.

One of many questions outstanding in Russia is touched upon in the news from Pctrograd that tho local Soviets arc releasing thousands of war prisoners, who are becoming nomads, and that there are 40,000 in the Pfitrograd district alone. Some time ago the possibility was seriously canvassed that the collapse of Russia might enablo tho Central Empires to add formidably to their effective strength by recovering a considerable proportion of the 1,700,000 Austro-German prisoners captured by the Russian armies, From the first this source of recruiting was limited by the fact that many of the prisoners taken by Russia wero members of subjf-ct races in tho Dual Monarchy who gladly abandoned their former obligations and desired nothing less than to resume them. Numliers of these men found freedom instead of captivity in Russia, and some were embodied in the Russian armies. To-day's message evidently relates to prisoners in another er.lcgory, who would have been kept in strict confinement but for the disorders of the revolution. It suggests, however, that even prisoners in this class obtaining their release are not returning homo to be added to the enemy's reserves, but prefer a life of wandering 'freedom in .Russia, This is perhaps typical of the general _ situation where enemy prisoners in Russia are concerned.

German newspapers are giving prominence to a report that Polish legionaries have revolted against the Bolsheviki and captured the Russian military headquarters, incidentally taking General Keylenko and his staff prisoner. Just what the report portends, if it is true, it is difficult to say, but all available evidence goes to show that the Poles must be regarded as definitely and irreconcilably hostile to the Central Powers, and (.be latest declarations of Austro-German Ministers in regard to Poland indicate that they have accepted this state of affairs. Dr. Kuhlmann was quoted a day or two ago as saying that Poland was neither a State nor a kingdom, and did not possess geographical boundaries. Tins is not tho language of conciliation, and its adoption probably means that Germany has given up hope of improving upon her past failure to reach an understanding with the Poles—a failure due, of course, to tho fact that any arrangements proposed by Germany have been' designed with an exclusive -j.yo to her own interests.

As information stands the present relations between the Central Powers and the people of Russian Poland aro those of complete deadlock. Tho national university which was established by tho invaders as a sop to Polish susceptibilities has been closed down, and tho State Council, which was constituted allegedly as a step towards granting Polish autonomy, resigned in the latter part of last year. The Poles have demonstrated in many ways their repugnance to the idea of being closely associated with the Central Empires in military and

economic affairs, and tho Russian Revolution went far to confirm them in this attitude. Ono outcome of the Revolution was that at a gathering held at Cracow a demand for i.he creation of a perfectly independent and free Poland was put forward in the name of the entire Polish people hy representatives front Galicia as well as Russian Poland. A well-informed English writer summed up the position some time ago in the statement that unless the entiro international situation changed, or the Russian Revolution collapsed, the Austro-Gcr-inan cause in Poland might be regarded as irretrievably lost.