PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 89, 8 January 1918, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

■ Except in tho air, only minor activities are reported in the Western theatre, and according to Me. Philip Gibbs these conditions must continuec until snow and ice have melted and tho mud which will appear with tho thaw has dried sufficiently to permit of movement. Naturally speculation obtains as to what will happen .when conditions once again permit operations on a big scale, and two extreme possibilities are suggested to-day. Mn. Gibbs speaks of tho possibility that the Germans may'concentrate "forces in a last desperate .attempt to gain a decision at any cost, He conjures up a grim picture of the last German reserves pouring forward in massed attacks, but adds tbat his personal opinion is,that before attempting this forlorn hope tho onemy will make a desperate bid for peace. The enemy certainly has every reason to shrink from an enterprise in which he has so often failed with the odds much more in his favour than they will ever be again.

Somewhat different possibilities <aro suggested in tho news from Amsterdam that all villages in north-east Flanders are packed with_ German soldiers who are feverishly constructing fortifications. In spite of all the talk of an impeding enemy offensive in. the Western theatre, the'possibility is in clear sight that tho Germans may prefer to retreat and shorten their line rather than stake their last reserves upon a desperate effort to force a decision. Electing to retreat they would sacrifice the Flanders coast, and with it their best, submarine bases and the air bases from which they are now able lo raid England at short range. On

the other hand a successful retreat would very greatly lighten the immediate demand upon their resources and would give them prospects of spinning out the war for •mother year, .if not longer, and of transferring forces to secondary theatres where very important issues arc at stake. Considering that it has been Germany's essential aim since Verdun rather to tiro out than to defeat the Allies it i$ by no means impossible that tho policy of retreat may ultimately he adopted. Given an open choice, tho German military chiefs would almost certainly choose this course, but doubts as to tho feasibility of keeping the masses in Germany and vassal States in subjection under tho conditions which would ho entailed may ultimately sway the balance in favour of a more desperate policy.

* * * News from Russia is again full of contradictions, and one- report declares that the Bolsheviks have defeated a Ukrainian force. It is clear from other messages, however, that in Southern Russia as a whole there is a very strong body of opposition to the usurpers. The return of votinc; in tho Don Province affords a convincing indication that the Cossacks have been infected to a very limited extent by extremist ideas. The continued opposition of the Soviets to the election of the Constituent Assembly, further manifested to-day, presumably arises from a_fcar that voting on similar lines might'take place in other parts of Russia.