PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 87, 5 January 1918, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It now seems to be definitely established that the Russo-Gorman negotiations have completely broken down, and that yesterday's Vienna messages which contradicted the first announcement to this effect were merely an attempt to hide tho truth. Their authors must,, of course, have been well aware that tho truth could not long be hidden from the world at large, and presumably they were-chiefly intent upon withholding tho facts, from the people of.the Dual Monarchy': The people of Austria-Hungary'and those of Germany have no doubt been encouraged to believe that Russia is at their mercy. In these circumstances the defiant note now struck by the Bolsheviki will be apt to eomc as- a staggering surprise, and tho political results in tho enemy countries may be serious. *** * . i

The collapse of. the negotiations, of course, adds new complications to a, situation that was • fearfully complicated already. That the collapse is real, as has been said, does not seem to be open to doubt. In a statement ' announcing that Russia will not consent to Germany's terms Trotsky denounces German hypocrisy and perfidy with such eloquence and such an appearance of sincerity as almost to suggest that he has been tJhe dupe as well as the. instrument of Germany. Ho speaks with all the ardour of a patriot in, declaring that if Germany adheres to her present attitude in regard to the occupied ter-ritories'--it will be urgently necessary to..courageously defend the Russian Revolution. Fine words and phrases, however, cannot obscure'or dispose of the fact that Trotsky, and those with whom .-he is associated have done more than any other faction jo imperil the Russian Revolution, by reducing tho Russian nation to a state which makes_ effective action against its perfidious enemies almost impossible. The existing situation gives point to some observations by Mr. Robert Crozier Long (who speaks of reigning conditions in Russia from recent personal observation) in a_ statement' to ah American interviewer which appeared in our news columns yesterday. One of tho principal points made by Mr. Long was that, though the leaders of the Bolshevik faction arc corrupt, its rank and file members are not in the same category, but arc ■ dangerous chiefly because they aro ignorant and deluded. "The Bolsheviki," he stated, "do riot demand a separate peace. Their obsession is an immediate and general -peace; and their triumph I will not mean entering into, negotiations with Russia's enemies. .It means'demanding peace' from all belligerent Governments, or, as is more likely, from all belligerent proletariats." Mr. Long also observed that the Bolsheviki, failing to realise their dream of a general peace, might threaten to make a separate peace; but not even Lenin or Trotsky had (when he' spoke)' publicly championed a separate peace policy. Although Mr. Long perhaps underestimated the' powers for mischief of the Bolshevik leaders, there is a good deal in to-day's news to suggest that his general judgment on the facts was sound. It is a reasonable assumption that the views Trotsky is now expressing, not without force and eloquence, aro] those honestly held by tire mass of! his followers. '

While it is impossible to credit Teotsky either with sincerity or with anything like a competent grasp of the situation, the likelihood that popular indignation has compelled a rejection of the shameful terms Germany sought to impose justifies some tentative hopes. There is no visible hope of the Russian armies being effectively reorganised for a long time to come, but tho enemy obviously is faced by serious problems in Russia instead of entering upon the easy road to domination which lately seemed to be opening 'before him. It is distinctly possible also that his difficulties may be'heavily'increased"by the appeals the Russian proletariat is addressing ;io enemy soldiers.and people. It. is certainly not to be taken for granted that the Central Empires,.arc proof against the invasion of Russian revolutionary ideas. It is, an arresting fcaturo of Trotsky's speech that he mentions Armenia as well as the occupied Russian provinces as an object of German designs. This is particularly welcome as an indication that even the most irresponsible and incapable faction which has yet come to the surfaco in Russia is unable to wholly ignore the claims of the victims of enemy oppression and outrage.

It is possible- that the ruling powers in Austria and Germany foresaw the position now reached, and have laid their plans accordingly, but it still holds good that the outlook is materially improved by the collapse of the peace negotiations. Apart from tho likelihood that civil war may introduco further complications, tho. Russian armies arc undoubtedly iu poor condition to offer resistance. Dvinsk is only one- of a number of points at which the enemy is no doubt in a position to win easy and rapid military success. But if the Central Empires arc -under the necessity of undertaking new military enterprises in Russia, their prospects of large additional forces on the West front or in other theatres arc diminished .accordingly. . Moreover, the occupation of further . Russian territory -would be a move of doubtful wisdom. Thero is much point in the jeers tho Russian delegates at Brest Litovsk are said to have, addressed to the Germans, asking them whether they proposed to tako Pctrograd, feed three million starving folk, and disarm a country where every workman 'carried a rifle.. Taking account also of the corroding effect of Russian propaganda, it seems distinctly possible that the enemy may find his hands more than full on the Eastern front, .whether he adopts an active policy or is content to stand fast on his present lines.

■Although there are substantial grounds for believing that the sub' marine has fallen far short of being a decisive factor in-the war,.

I the latest returns of shipping losses emphasise the'fact that the underwater craft arc still a long way from being a negligible factor, [iwenty-one British ships, all but three of them over 1600 tons, were sunk in the latest week reported on. The British losses are the heaviest, recorded for many weeks. The immediate suggestion is that the enemy has contrived of ate to heavily increase his flotillas, but results during a short period really convey no reliable evidence, ine broad facts are that losses, even during the bad week now reported, arc very considerably lighter than those suffered in April and early May, and that though submarines arc still being turned out rapidly, perhaps in greater numbers than ever before, -tkcv are also being destroyed at an increased rate, while at the same time the output of now mercantile tonnago is expanding rapidly as compared with earlier periods of the campaign. • '