The Dominion. THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 1917. THE WESTERN CAMPAIGN

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 44, 15 November 1917, Page 4

The Dominion. THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 1917. THE WESTERN CAMPAIGN

In declaring that it is absolutely necessary that Germany should retain Belgium in future as a submarine base against England, Admiral von TiRPiTz is perhaps entering a Pan-German caveat against the peace move upon which Germany is expected to concentrate during tho winter. He has at all events bluntly stated an issue which may be carried towards a settlement sooner than' he expects, or would be prepared to admit. Much as attention has been diverged to other theatres during the last few the war has witnessed no more important development in recent times than the extension of tho British offensive in Flanders, which in ono aspect definitely challenges tho German hold on the Belgian coast. It may bo added that nothing is better calculated to hold attention at the present stage of the war than the apparent determination o£ the Allies to vigorously prosecute their offensive on the Western front in spite of tho handicap imposed by winter. Well before this timo last year there was a definite pause in the Allied offensivo operations, and tho lull which followed was broken only by comparatively isolated battles, notably the British thrust on the Ancre and the victorious French assaults at Verdun. This year an essentially different policy is being pursued. Bad weathor has hampered tho offensive and reduced its momentum, as it was bound to do, but there has been no such break as was witnessed Inst year. Particularly on the British section of tho front tho Allies have at every opportunity and often in spite of bad weather and waterlogged ground developed the plan adopted this year of striking as rapidly succeeding blows as circumstances will purmit at limited objectives. In Flanders this policy has been pursued in the most recent days with signal success, and at the moment of writing nows of an intense bombardment in the Yser region supplies a pointed comment on the bombast of Admiral von Tirpitz. All the evidence in sight indicates that the Allies intend to prosecute a winter offensivo in tho Western theatre such as they

havo not hitherto attempted. It is obvious that such a policy may be dictated not only by considerations local to the Western theatre, but by events elsewhere. Tho prospect of a winter offensive bears not merely upon tho fate of the Belgian coast, though that in itself is vitally important, but very potently upon the main trend of the war. A survey of tho position reached in the Western theatre' suggests that the Allies have, upon tho whole, much to hope from a winter, offensive campaign. The handicap of bad weather is serious, particularly to the side whioh enjoys aorial supremacy, and whilo tho utmost vigour of attack on the West front is calculated to limit tho enemy's activities in other theatres, it is possiblo that developments in these theatres may accentuate the immediate problems by which tho Western Allies are confronted. Bub unless tho enemy is destined to gain extraordinary relief in the near future in other areas of war ho has every reason to look with apprehension to a continued development of tho Allied Western offensive during the winter. Pursuing this policy the Allies are more likely than in any other way to defeat whatever action tho enemy may attempt in tho interval before ho is called upon to meet tho united attack of France, Britain, America, and, it is to bo hoped, a restored and reinvigorated Italy next spring. In any survey of existing conditions on tho West front Flanders has first claim to attention, not only becauso of tho vital issues which are there visibly in | the balance, but because it is upon 'British shoulders that the main burden of whatever tho Allies may attempt this winter must ba expected to fall, It is in Flanders also that Germany has most plainly failed to meet tho essential demands of tho war. Though the British offensive in Flanders this year has recovered as yet a comparatively small extent of territory, its total results stamp it as a military achievement of magnitude,. and it paves the way for still greater things. On the narrow front on which the offensivo has developed the Allies have nowhere advanced, since the Battle of Mcssines opened at the beginning of June, a greater distance than five miles. Their achievement is not measured, however, in miles, but in tho fact that they have mastered the essential portions of the fortified bulwark on which Germany relied to safeguard a vital section of her lino. In the narrow bolt of country which has witnessed an unending succession of battles sinco the now distant days when Sir John Fkench moved his little, army into Flanders, the British army, with some assistance from its Allies, has inflicted such defeats on Germany as make it impossible to doubt the ultimate fate of tho war. The immediate result of tho victories culminating in tho conquest of the Passchondaelo Ridge is to so weaken the enemy's northern flank covering the Belgian coast and the approaches to Lille that it is doubtful whether ho would await attack next spring on the line he now holds in Flanders even if he wero left unmolested during the winter. A policy of continued attack may possibly compel him to seek relief m retreat without waiting for the return of better weather. At all events the target of attack in Flanders is an enemy front already weakened to a perilous point, and possession of the- Belgian ooast, on which the submarine campaign against Allied sea transport is chiefly based, offers itseH as a prixe, though not tho only prize, of successful offensivo action. The I state of affairs reached on tho French front, of course, heightens the possibility that tho Allies may achieve important results in a winter offensivo. After a long struggle the French have gained _ complete possession of tho Aisne heights, and advanced their offensive front within seven miles of Laon, which is the southern bastion of the German line. The French are commandingly placed not only in this quarter, but on the Craonne Plateau, in the Champagne, and at Verdun, where they threaten the enemy's communications through Metz. If the Western Allies are handicapped_ for the time being by winter conditions and by having had to transfer a considerable Dody of strength to Italy it is not less important that the stability of the German lino is imminently threatened at many points, and above all in Flanders.

The only thing that makes the immediate outlook in the Western theatre uncertain is the possibility that events elsewhere may_ enable the enemy to amend the existing balance of strength materially to his advantage, So long as Italy makes head against attack and final catastrophe is averted in Russia, he will hardly contrive to challenge tho decisive superiority of the Western Allies, but unfavourable developments in Russia, from the Allied standpoint, may enable him to modify his present inferiority on the West front. If the Germans obtain in this way any considerable accession of strength, it is presumably in the Western theatre that they will attempt to turn it to aecount. Successful action in the Western theatre represents their only hope of bettering their ultimate prospects in the war. It is a fact to ho remembered in this connection that tho enemy's most ambitious effort this year was an attempt to defeat the French on the heights of tho Aisnc, from which he has now at all points retreated. If they are enabled to withdraw strong forces from the Russian front, tho Germans may follow up their attack on Italy by a renewed attack on ' France bofcjro America has brought her weight to bear. This is an extreme possibility. There is as yet no indication that tho complete military collapse of Russia is in prospect, and a report that the onemy is again "combing out" his available man-power may perhaps bo regarded as eyidenco that it is unlikely. According to Mb. Hilaire Belloc tho first serious "combing out" for tho German forces took place in October, 1915. "The process," he adds, "continued with various experiments and shiftings from the Army and back to the Army until the end of last year. The present year was not far advanced when a point had been reached after which no further recruitment from this source was possible." It seems unlikely that the Germans would again work over the unfruitful ground that remains if they had reasonable hopes of being able presently to withdraw large forces from Russia, more especially since the latest "combing out" goes hand in hand with a great winter effort to increase the output of war material. An attempt on the enemy's part to resume aggressive action in tho Western theatre- would m any case give tho Allies an additional incentive to persevere in the policy of vigorous and unrelenting attack to which they arc evidently committed.