The Dominion. TUESDAY, OCTOBER 9, 1917. DEFEATING THE SUBMARINE

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 12, 9 October 1917, Page 4

The Dominion. TUESDAY, OCTOBER 9, 1917. DEFEATING THE SUBMARINE

Another indication that the suSmarine is a, declining forco in the war is given to-day in the announcement that the American War Insurance Bureau has reduced its rates to 23 per cent. This action, it is added, is based on reports that the U-boats arc not now "largely successful-" and indications that new devices will further jeduce . their ravages. It may be taken for' granted that an actual reduction in tho amount of v destruction effected by the underwater raiders has been chiefly responsible for the fall in insurance rates. For the present it is largely in developments of this nature that indications of a failing -effort on the part of tho submarines must be looked for. That the submarine is a declining force is definitely attested. In tho latest of a series of statements made on tho subject with authority in Great Britain, General Smuts declared explicitly and with an ■• emphasis which shows that he is very sure of his ground that the submarine is no longer a decisive factor in the. war. But while statements of this character are in themselves encouraging and show a. confident belief on the part of those who are fully inform-, ed that tho enemy's attack on the Allied sea communications has failed, they leave open a somewhat wide margin of possibilities. Whatever hopes the enemy formerly entertained of winning the war through the agency of the submarines have vanished, but just how far the Allies will bo able to go in ridding tho sea of these raiders has still to be seen. Available evidence, however, though it is by no means complete in detail, goes far to warrant a belief that the Allies are in a fair way to do much more than merely neutralise tho efforts of 'the submarines. Tho present and prospective construction of new mercantile tonnage, together with measures of economy and of organisation and control of shipping, should go a long way to make' good and neutralise the havoc wrought by tho underwater craft, but in addition there is satisfactory evidence that the destruction of merchant ships by submarines is steadily diminishing, and that the destruction of submarines _ is* increasing. As to the first poini, tonnage figures, so far as they aro available, show that losses have very substantially declined since the submarine campaign reached its highwater mark in April and early May, and the. Admiralty returns of tho numbers of British ships sunk week by peek demonstrate that the decline has been continuous to the latest date reported on. A table printed below 'gives the averago number of British ships sunk per week in four-weekly periods since the campaign was at its height. Tho date given is in each case the end of the 'four-weekly period to which tbo average refers: — Over Under icon lioo tons. ions. May 13 30 13.7 June 10 18.2 5.7 July 8 19.2 5 August 5 J8.5 3 September 2 15.7 8.2 September SO .11 7.5 \ The decline from tho volume of destruction effected in April and May, it will be noted, is substantial. It is oven more important as bearing on the outlook that the British Naval authorities stated aday or two ago that more submarines had. been sunk during tho past thrco months than in any previous quarter. This statement is not robbed of its manifest significance by the fact that we do not know just how many submarines were destroyed in past quarters, nor in what ratio the ■destruction (or capture) of submarines stands to new construction by tho enemy. We know at least that tho destruction and capture of submarines has been proceeding at an appreciable rato for a l° n g ti mc past. Tho fact has been stated on a number of occasions on official authority, and on one occasion some detailed information on the subject was supplied by Sir Edward Carson, when he was First Lord of the Admiralty. He stated that during tho first eighteen days of February thcro were forty en-

counters with submarines. Giving Ins reason for publishing no estimate of the number of submarines destroyed tlio First Lord picked out oi tlieso forty encounters nine cvoa representative of the different stages ol probability that attached to each report. "Of these nine," to quote a naval writer, "one was an absolute certainty, the second a virtual certainty, and tho probability that two submarines were slink in the' third seemed very highly probable indeed Of tho fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh, there were possibilities, and perhaps high possibilities, ' but no evidence of certainty. . . . It seems almost unreasonable to suppose that out of these nine cases, referring to ten boats, less than four were certainties. And if the cases wore representative that would give sixteen for the first eighteen days of February." At all events clear evidence was supplied by tho then First Lord that in the early days of this year submarines were being sunk at an appreciable rate, though "tho number accounted for could not bo exactly determined. It is now added to our knowledge of tho factors inaking for the. defeat of the enemy campaign that submarines are being sunk at a rate never previously attained. It is evident that this increased destruction of submarines' is the most promising fact bearing on tlio outlook that has yet been disclosed. The Allies are able to use! their resources in a number of ways to the. end of defeating the submarine campaign. But the supremely effective and profitable way is to destroy submarines.