The Dominion. FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 1917. THE COMING WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3190, 14 September 1917, Page 4

The Dominion. FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 1917. THE COMING WAR

Though he is in a number o:

respects following tho lead of his predecessor, the new Imperial Chancellor has not yet in any full or real sense shown his hand where tho development of German policy is concerned.' Nor is it possible to point with certainty to the forces in German public life whicn led to his olevation. ■ Wo are justified in believing, however, that tho change does not imply any very important concession to 'democratic stirrings and promptings in Germany, and that the factors which actually brought it about must be looked for in quite anothor direction. Decidedly the most plausible and arresting explanation yet offered is one which was advanced not long ago by the London Times. There is reason to t>elieve, according to tho Times, "that is was the iS 'chlotjunker— -the factory-chimney 'Junkers,' as tho Germans term the great industrialists—and more particularly the Schlotjunhtr of the armament industries—who pushed him (Dk. Michablis) to tho giddy eminence from which Heer von Bethmann-Hollweq has been hurled." At all events, whether or not the industrial barons of Germany have succeeded in placing their nominee- at tho head of

the Government, it is certain that they will powerfully influence tho policy of the present Chancellor or of anyone who may succeed him; and full aocount must be taken of

their activities in considering tho conditions that will arise after the war and preparing to meet them. This consideration would bo emphasised and'not weakened by anything in tho nature of a split between thp "big business" interests hi Germany and other sections of the composite AYar That such a breach is opening is"suggested by a message published a day or two ago which stated that the Kaiser had dismissed his shipping adviser. Herr Ballin, for declaring that the Government had followed the Kaiser into bankruptcy and ruin. It is not impossible that the industrial magnates in Germany who did so much to foment the war may gain complete command of the situation when the KaiseE and. those who hold with him that Germany must at all costs win,a conqueror's peace have been set aside or overruled. It is a fact to be kept always in mind that even if Germany is compelled to relinquish her schemes of conquest and to make reparation to tho countries she has so foully wronged, the Allies will still have to reckon upon a determined attempt on her part to win in the field of commerco what she has failed to win by_ military effort. • If the Allies acquit themselves as well in tho coming commercial struggle as they are now, with the exception' of JRussia, acquitting themselves in war, schemes of commercial aggression _ engineered by the German industrial barons will break down in failure. It must be reoqgnieed, however, that if the Allies have a great deal in their favour they are at tho same time faced by difficulties and problems from which Germany, as a result of her centralised organisation and her domination 'of vassal States, is relatively immune. To what extent theso advantages will bo modified by tho time the war comes to an end we cannot say. On the other hand, tho task of the nations allied against Germany in forming an effective commercial league is bound in the most favourable circumstances to be .complex and difficult. As a whole, their resources are enormously superior to those of the onomy countries, but they are called upon to adjust and accommodate all sorts of detail conflicting interests in order to attain a coherent policy which will eafeguard their general interests and supply a guaranteo of future peace-. The Alliod nations are afforded an opportunity of creating a commercial order which in a very material degree will assist to keep Germany in control «ind to make tho world safe for democracy. The intervention of Amorica and various other States since the Allies laid down tho basis of an economic policy at tho Paris Conferenca in Juno last year has broadened tho problems involved and made them more complex, but it has at the same time extended the possible scopo of effective, action. The necessity of seizing and developing with energy and determination whatever opportunities exist under this head is strikingly emphasised by the trend in Germany to which allusion has been made. We may reasonably believe that PanGerman ambitions, as they aro ordinarily understood, aro receiving thoir death blow in this war. The

men who hoped to extend German hegemony from Berlin to the Persian Gulf have no doubt had their day, but the- prospect that the industrial barons niay succeed them as tho dominant power in Germany is as far as possible from implying that the Allies can afford to regard military victory as their ultimate and final goal. It is not a matter of funcy or theory that Germany is planning to follow up her efforts in tho war_ with a powerful bid for commercial supremacy and domination. Positive evidence has been afforded of her intentions and of the lines upon which her policy is developing, notably in the plans for the restoration of the German mercantile marine which were made public a couple of months ago. Tho Gorman Government proposes to stimulate tho production of new shipping tonnage and to control its operation by a system of grants, graduated according to speed of construction. Owners who replace seized or sunken ships within three years of peace may get grants of from 60 to 80 per cent, of the pea.o value, for ships completed-between the fourth and eixth years the grants fall from 60 to 40 per cent., while if completion be delayed until from the seventh to the ninth yea ,, tho direct State assistance drops from 40 to 20 per cent. All'these grants, the Economist points out, are to be based upon tho "peace values," .which may bo expected to fall rapidly from the war values as , the world's fihipping becomes rebuilt. The grants are not to bo repaid but the ships built or repaired under this scheme of Stito assistance- arc not-to be sold to aliens within ten years afte? they lave been commissioned, and no contracts of chartering or freight affecting them, aro to be made, with aliens during the samo period, except by Government permit. Tho cosb to the State has been estimated in Hamburg at £75,000,000, kking the mark at its value before the war. This gigantic State enterprise, it has been pointed lout, does not fall far short of tKe nationalisation of German' shipping. It is intended to enable Germany to resume her world-trade immediately after the declaration of peace and to defeat the rivalry of foreign shipping , , and it is in keeping with other schemes which Germany is devising to the same end. While tho industrial magnates of Germany are shaping plans of this character tho allegedly democratic forces of the country afo concentrating more and more upon a demand for economic peace, and protesting against a policy of economic exclusion. As her fortunes decline in war Germany is increasingly inclined to demand an unrestricted opportunity of resuming the policy of "peaceful penetration" in which.she was making good headway before she opened her attack on the liberties of Europe. It is quite obvious that by yielding her such an opportunity and neglecting whatever measures of commercial protection and development it is in their power, individually and collectively, to adopt, tho Allies would sacrifice the security which victory, rightly used, will bring.