PKOGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3176, 29 August 1917, Page 4

PKOGRESS OF THE WAR

Oxe. of the possibilities' raised by the temporary collapse of the Eussian armies is that the position in the Turkish theatres, and notably in Mesopotamia, may bo altered for the worse from the Allied standpoint. Though it is fay from being a certainty jiho possibility, will gain more attention than it would otherwise command, for a roport transmitted to-day that Falkenhayn _is on the Mesopotamian front organising an advance against Bagdad. As matters are going in tho main theatres, there seems little enough likelihood of German or Austrian troops being sent into Asiatic Turkey, but if the Russian armies failed in Armenia as thcy_ have failed elsewhere, the result might be to relievo pressure on Turkey to an extent which would complicate the position of tho Allies in other Turkish theatres. According to a recent article by Mr. Hilaire Belloo in Land and Water, Turkey has something like 45 divisions in tho field—he admits thatthereisagreat deal of guesswork in the matter— of which nine are in Europe and_ 36 in Asia. Mb. Belloc's information is that 15 of the divisions in Asia are on tho Armenian front,_ five on the Mesopotamian front, eight in Palestine, and eight in reserve (two -of the reserve divisions in the region of Diarhekr, behind the Armenian front, two in Anatolia,_ and perhaps four in Syria). There is no news that Turkey has^ increased the number of her divisions in Rumania, and it is obvious that if the figures given of her strength in Asia are approximately accurate any serious weakening of the Russian campaign in Armenia might enable her to largely augment her forces in Mesopotamia or Palestine.

In some general observations on tho situation, Mr. Belloo points out that nearly half of the Turkish divisions in Asia, more than half counting reserves, were held by , the Russians in Armenia. The whole problem, he adds, turns upon the power the enemy may now have in this field of. withdrawing troops from Armenia, and the further power of using his reserve. "If we had more information of the character and real strength of that reserve and of the true situation on the Armenian front, we should have more power to solve the problem of a possible counter-attack. As it is, wo may say that ho (tho enemy) has on paper the power of at least doubling, and probably moro than doubling, his striking force either upon the Mesopotamian or upon the Palestine front. The value of striking on tho Palestino front is not very apparent. Ho is there holding good territory with an unbroken line of supply behind him. Ho has in front of him the desert, on the fringes of which his opponent still stands, supplied with a very great expense, of mechanical appliance. With the Mesopotamian front it is otherwise. If, as wo are told, he was operating there with only five divisions, the three which were beaten back by the British at : the advance on Bagdad and the two which successfully effected their retreat from Persia, it is clear that this comparatively small force could be largely augmented with profit. Further, if he can withdraw divisions from the Armenian front, the distance these divisions would have to go to join the Mesopotamian Army Group is not very great, though all the Communications are by bad roads and most of them over mountains. It is equally clear that a successful operation upon this front would yield more fruits politically than upon any other." *#* . *

Though much has happened in the main theatres since Mr. Belloc wrote, the position in Asiatic Turkey remains as obscure as ever. The absence of any but minor events on tho Armenian front, how-

ever, is in itself a somewhat hopeful sign, since it is tolerably certain that if tho demoralisation which led to such dire results in Galicia had spread to tho Russian troops in Armenia, tho enemy would before now have recovered some of his lost territory. Account must also be taken of the economic distress and war-weariness _ which are said to be pronounced in tho Ottoman Empire, and of rising distrust .of tho Central Powers, which, according to one. message to-day, has induced the Turkish Government to discuss peace terms. Nevertheless, possibilities aro sufficiently open to give some interest to tho report that Falkenhayst is organising a counter-offensive against Bagdad.

The Italians are still gaining ground at various points in _ the mountain country north of Gorizia, though the enemy is making desperate efforts to stem their advance Much will depend in the immediate futurq upon the extent to which tha Austrians have organised tho Ternova positions, mentioned in the. news to-day. The Ternova, Ridge extends south-east from the Bainsma Plateau, across which the Italians aro now fighting their way north of, Gorizia, and some of its peaks have an elevation of more than four thousand feet. It flanks and commands .tho Vippaco Valloy, south of Gorizia, which is ono of the few practicable avenues of communication into the Isonzo country from tho west. Mastering the Ternovi Rid"e, the Italians would outflank the enemy's remaining defences on the Oarso Plateau, but so long as the Austrians are abb to bring up reinforcements and maintain an organised resistance rapid progress in such country is not to be expected.

News from the Western theatre in "hand at the moment of writing calls for little remark, though there ib an early report of a, British attack in Flanders which has opened well and should mean another step towards bringing the enemy to battle on tne open plain. No big development is reported in the Lens area. Other, reports show that the French are securely holding their recent gains at Verdun. \