THE BUDGET

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3143, 23 July 1917, Page 7

THE BUDGET

MAY APPEAR NEXT WEEK

THINGS IT MAY CONTAIN

It is improbable that the Budget will irbe ready for presentation to tho House joy the end 'of this week, if, Indeed, tlio IjHouse is ready to receive it by that [Hime. The Address-in-Reply ciebate this promises to be one of the lor.gf'est on record, for it will certainly oxttend over two or three days of thin week, |-3f not over the whole week.. It is uunderstood that the Finance Minister has ■ ilia Financial Statement far r-.dvunced in preparation. . The Statement is never .'considered by Cabinet until it is printed, iiind-after Cabinet has done with'it there pvill almost, certainly be alterations .anrt It is therefore not. in. possible that the Tres/uirer will tot bo able ia make his Statement to tho Houses »vea next weelt. ; £o many, other, things, have etgaged jb.B attention, of members that tLey have shown, but little curiosity as to the piob•able . contents of .the' Budget. It is Haken for granted that there will he another large run-plus. It is quite truo ty.naf/"Oistouis and -Hallway revenue have [fallen considerably, but this loss will ho ■Jcomepnsated many times by 1 Lie ii creased Income tax and Ihe excess profits tax. : ' There seems to be somo disparity of ■ideas among Ministers on the subject of taxation. Afr. Massey hinted that there «ma-y be no very alarming increases in [taxation, but Sir Joseph Ward pud Mr. JMacDonakl have on different occasions idropped remarks which ; indicated that fth'ey thought everything taxable should Jhe taxed. On the whole, it seems a. ,%afe prediction that the taxation proposals of the Government for this year ■ will, not be sensational. Early, in the session: tho'leaders of the 'Government Vera, not inclined to yield to tho demand Jf or the repeal of "tho excess profits lax, wit the'report now is that cither Hi 6 ia.y is to go or the method of assessment is to be very radically changed. •The_ return- from -the tax last year was fuc" a, big one that this of itself furnishes tlie'strongest possible reason from the point of view of tho Finance Minister against the repeat oF the tax. Tr 'it is abolished there will havo to be other taxes. f It is improbable that' the provision to ,T)o made for the dependants tf the men Jof the Second Division will have any Material effect on tho financial proposals Jof the Government'this year. S?paraJtion allowances and pay are i.x.pcndilure /which it is the policy • of this country [to provide for out of loan money. Until' The time \ comes when pensions for the 'dependants of Second Division men will shave to bo found tho revenue will not .ihave to bear any additional burden. In "tiny case it is unlikely that a considerable number of Second Division men will vliare gone into camp before the end of /the current financial year, and none of Uheni will'havo gone to.the war. The Percentage of reinforcements, it is soid, fs to bo rcnucecT, but a'definite announcement of the amount of tlio reduction may not bo mado until the end of the present .European summer. It is admitted that' tho present rate of -reyiforcc.men't is more than -sufficient to K'op our forces up to. establishment, but. until the summer fighting has ended it will not bo possible to sa>; with certainty . what'percentage."of reinforcements Now Zealand ought to send. In view of the j.possibility of tho rate being reduced, it may not be necessary to mako financial provision this year for the dependants of the married, men. ' '

Generally, the Budget this, year is likely to give the Finance Minister lather-more concern than the Budget of 3a?t year. He sens all bis sources of [revenue disappearing or drying up. The railways do not now show the profit of vother days, Customs duties are being Reduced from several causes, of. which . ;he eecnoray of the people is.perhaps the /east of .all; and in view of the bad prospects for the coming export season at may be precarious to lean too heavily on. the land to provide the lost retenue. ■The Financo Minister likes a good margrin of safety, and he may- feel a. littlo jineasy'about his taxes'; '" ' ■■"'"

There will be a big loan l as a matter Tof course. Last year the amouut asked for was eight millions, >>ut the Govern- ; ment took as much more than that as itvas offering. This' year the Government ■rasj ask.for moro than this, c-nd the '(rate of issue will probably have 'to be braised.