WHERE WILL THE GERMANS STRIKE NEXT?

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3022, 8 March 1917, Page 6

WHERE WILL THE GERMANS STRIKE NEXT?

A BLOW IN THE WEST. Where will the Germans strike next? In the "Daily Mail" Mr, Lovat Fraser answers his own question thus:—"lf we would know what tho Hun proposes to attempt next, we must look for a fresh blow on land. Bemember always that Germany lias no time left for what Mr. Leo Maxse calls "sideshows. The Rumanian campaign was to a great extent a side-show. It produced a considerable amount of booty, it raised the spirits of the enemy, but it did not bring Germaijy perceptibly nearer the kind of victory she craves. She must now deal knock-out blows or find herself acknowledging failure within a v few months. Where can Germany attempt to deal knock-out blows? Five courses appear to be open to Marshal von Hindenburg. He can: 1. Attack General Sarrail .and endeavour to thrust the. Allies out ' of Macedonia. | • 2. Continue his pursuit- of the siiil undestroyen! Rumanian Army, and make for Odessa and the rich" corn- , lands of Southern Russia. . . *

■ 3. Strike at Riga, from which his outposts have never been very far, and try to advance to Petrograd later on. 4. Hammer the Italians. 5 Try to strike again in the West. . Iho idea, of an early blow at ltalv can doubtless bo dismissed. The Austrians discovered last spring that an offensive through the Trentino is a slow and dangerous enterprise. The Italians have a very firm lodgment . on tho Carso, ana an enemy attack on tho Upper Isonzo would not bring the end pi the war much nearer. The Germans have to end the war—if they can. Thev will not do it by hitting Italy anv more than we shall do it by 'hittin.' Turkey. ■ .■ •

I'do not in the least believeUhat tho enemy will materially improve ■ their position if they try to penetrate to Odessa. Such an undertaking would impose upon .them a price they cannot now pay. When every allowance is made for the losses of the Rumanian Army, it is still a factor to be reckoned with. Russia has huge concentrations of troops and guns in the south. Odessa would bo another "brilliant" episode in Germany's roll of successes, but it would not spell the approach of peace. The Anstro-German armies might march over half the world but while they failed to defeat the principal armies of the Entente Powers they ark. nowhere near victory. Much the same reasons may be applied to the suggestion that Hmdonburg may strike at K-iga and Petrograd. He lias beon sitting almost within sight of Riga for more than a. yoar. It would take him nil the summer to get to Petrograd, even il the utmost good fortune attended German arms; and when he got there;, he. would still be far from peace. iNothing can now detach Russia troni the Allied cause.

lhe popular belief has been that tho next German movo-would be to try to thrust General Sarrail oirf'oTSalonika lung C'onstantme's acceptance of tho demands of the Allies suggests, however, that the expected flow of'Austro(reraian reinforcements through Serbia is not,so near as was supposed. There may bo an attempt to retake Monastir King Constantme may again violate nis pledges, but Germany cannot expect to .end the war on the Salonika front.

. J'ljb point up to which I have been cadmg must now be clear. No onlooker can pretend to say what Germany will do, 'but it is possible to discern what she may do if she adheres to her own principles. The tradition •of Prussia is to attack the strongest point. Germany overwhelms minor States, but does not win the war. Her principal enemies are massed in the West. If she wants to end the war quickly she must strike hard and repeatedly in the West. However much von Hindenburg is attracted by tiio Eastern front, J believe he will be" compelled to turn again to the West. But the Allies, who hold and retain tlio initiative in the West, may save the Germans the necessity of making a choice. . °