PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2989, 29 January 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It is perhaps too soon to take it for cranted that the enemy has been Drought finally to a halt in his offensive in Rumania, but ho has made no progress worth speaking about during the last week or two, and at some points has given ground before Allied counter-strokes. Last week the Bulgarians were defeated in an attempt to cross the southernmost of the branches into which the Dannbo divides before entering tho Black Sea, and to-day it is reported that the Rumanians, after eleven hours of desperate fighting, drovo the enemy southward in some of tho valleys of tho AVestern Moldavia. All recent reports go to show that tho Allies aro making a successful stand, and tho leading facts of l/ho situation deserve attention. The lino on which tho armies are in contact runs generally south-east from the Carpaithtians, on tho Austro-Rumanian frontier, to tho Black Sea. The Allies hold most of Moldavia,,and, as information stands, tho whole'of the Danube delta. One message to-day states that the Russians are defending tho Sulina Canal—the chief mouth of the Danube—but the last official report dealing with this section of the front was the one which told of the enemy's failure to cross tho St. George branch, tho southernmost of the channels by which tho Danube enters the sea. Tho chief point to note about the front across Moldavia is that though it approximately follows tho rivers Trotus and Sereth the Allies have not been reduced to the necessity of everywhere putting these rivers between thorn and the enemy. On the contrary the opposing armies are in contact south of the Trotus along the whole length of that river, roughly half-wa.v across Moldavia. In places the Allies appear to have been driven right back upon tho Sereth, which crosses the remaining half of Moldavia, but in the eastern part of the province they hold a line several miles south of the Sereth.

It will be seen that the enemy is distinctly short of gaining such a footing on the Trotus-Sereth line as would enable him to turn it to the best account as a defensive barrier. On the greater part of the Moldavian front the Allies are in apparently secure possession of the river-crossings, and if. these conditions remain unchanged the enemy, as a consequence, be at a heavy disadvantage when tho Allies are ready to assume the offensive. During the past week, as is mentioned to-day, the enemy has been attempting to force the passage of the Sereth. 'But up to the present his attackshave failed, and the RussoRumanians meantime are not merely firmly holding a defensive line, but are holding it under conditions which, if maintained, will enable them to readily resume the offensive at the appointed hour. The possibility of a continued stand upon the present front must depend largely upon' the force respectively brought to bear, but it is a hopeful indication that the Allies have contrived as yet to hold positions south of the Moldavian rivers. If they had been as hard pressed in recent passages of the campaign as they were in its earlier stages they would before now.have retired behind the Trotus and the Sereth' (as they havo retired behind tho Danube further east) instead of maintaining extensive bridgeheads to the south of these rivers.

A good deal has been said at ono time and another about the effect of the Russian campaign in shortening the enemy's eastern front. It should be remembered, however, that what the invasion of Rumania has really done is to shorten an additional front imposed upon tho enemy after he had been heavily defeated upon the main East front last summer. The Russian offensive of last year ran its course before Rumania entered the war. That offensive not only cost the enemy upwards of a million casualties (about half the number in prisoners alone), but carried tho Russians dangerously near to Kovcl junction—the vital link connecting tho German northern and central armies with tho Austro-German armioß defending Galicia—and gave them commanding positions threatening tho network of railways radiating from Lembcrg. The enemy's task in the East this year is not only to hold the main front on which he was so heavily defeated last year, but to hold the Rumanian front as well. At present the Rumanian front is an addition of: about three hundred miles to the Eastern front of last summer. Interior linos and tho winter conditions, which have limited operations in the main theatres, have enabled tho enemy to overrun a considerable part of Rumania, but the total effect of his effort to date has been to somewhat reduce tho additional burden he now has to hear .as compared; ■withi-t,her > ,qirouinstaac6s

of last summer's campaign in the Eastern theatre. Tho reduction has, ■ of course, been effected at a heavy cost in men and material, and it may appear ultimately that too high a price was paid for the invasion of Rumania. In any case tho Rumanian front makes and will make a call upon enemy, resources which last year proved inadequate to meet the demands of the main theatres. The Rumanian Army, reorganised and provided with new and supplementary equipment, is a clear addition to tho strength of the Allies. The enemy has received no such accession of strength. When .Rumania entered the war only a few divisions of Austro-Hungarian troops were watching the Transylvanian frontier. The enemy armies since used in Rumania have for tho most part been transferred from the main theatres or drawn from reserves which in normal course would have gone to the main theatres. The losses incurred and tho diversion of enemy strength involved should have a material influence upon events in the main theatres within the next few months.

One thing clearly established in regard to the intense struggle in progress south-west of Riga is that tho Russians are making a most effective diversion, calculated to seriously interfere with tho enemy's activities elsewhere. Within the last day or two the tide of, battle has ebbed and flowed on this northern Section of tho front in a fashion which gives colour to current reports that the enemy has brought heavy reinforcements to bear. Probably, neither side is likely to win decisive advantage in the Riga region in the near future, but the Germans evidently feel that they cannot afford to submit to a penetration and weakening of this section of their front which would lay them open to damaging defeat later on, and aro taking action accordingly. With all their efforts they appear as yet to have recovered only a part of the ground gained by the- Russians in their brilliant Now Year offensive. This apart, the losses sustained by either side since the struggle began aro perhaps not far from balancing. But, while the Russians havo much to gain from a diversion on the northern front, it is likely that tho enemy would greatly prefer conditions of stalemate in that locality. The latest report in 'hand at time of writing indicates that the Russians, after a period of changing fortunes, aro again successfully developing the offensive.

A great stir of raiding is reported 'in tho Western theatre,, and fighting on a more important scale on tho Verdun front, west of tho Mcuso. In this area tho Germans appeal' to have incurred considerable losses without obtaining any appreciable success to set against them. They penetrated advanced, trenches at Hill 304, but the greater part of tho ground has already been recovero'd. No doubt the enemy attack s a were inspired by a desire to anticipate a. repetition, west of the Mcuso of the punishing assaults which tho'French drovo home on tho other side of the river in October and December. . One message mentions that clear, frosty weather has set in, which makes an early resumption of the Allied offensive possible. No pvedicOion is made, howovcr. Indeed, it is remarked that tho offensive may not come immediately ,_ though everything should bo ready in a month or two. While matters are thus in suspense-, satisfactory evidence is forthcoming that the Allies are fully maintaining 'their ascendancy in tho air. Several messages lately havo mentioned aeroplane losses in which the balanco turns heavily against the enemy —a state of affairs tho more significant, of course, since most of the air-fighting is done over, ov behind, tho enemy lines—and to-day Sir Douglas Haig reports that five enemy machines were destroyed, and as many driven down damaged, while only one British machine is missing._ If this is the record of a day, it marks a magnificent performance by the British airmen. * * * *

News from Mesopotamia, bears further witness to the fact that British fortunes in that theatre are now rising. Recently tho British forces extended their hold on tho right bank of tho Tigris as far upstream as Kut-el-Amara. It is reported to-da|y that they have captured positions south-west of that place. In other words, they are working round the elbow of the Tigris in which Kut-el-Amara is enclosed, and are now facing it, across the river, on east, south, and south-west. _ Advancing from their present positions, and crossing the Tigris, they' would complete tho investment of Kut and take in rear the enemy defences 14 miles downstream on the left (northern) bank. As Me. Candler describes the operations, the attack is being developed with a free use of shells and a careful economy of lives, while the Turks are vainly attempting to better their position by costly coun-ter-attacks. These conditions appear to have applied in full forceto the events officially reported today.

Fob all that appears to the contrary, the so-called raid on the Suffolk coast which is reported to-day may have been made by a submarine. It was, at all events, a •fleeting affair, and though the Germans speak of "light forces," British reports imply that only one ship took part. That enemy warships have been able on infrequent occasions to pay a brief visit to tho English coast serves, if anything, to emphasise the restraints to which they are subjected. The raider on this occasion bombarded the coast for only three minutes, and then beat a retreat. No better evidence is needed that he was desperately afraid of being brought to action.

Reports from Athens confirm earlier announcements that (Jonstantine and his party (iucl themselves under the necessity of submitting to the EnleiUc demands. It is incidentally disclosed, however, that the Royalist Army, in whole or part, has yet to be transferred to Peloponnesus. Ono report mentions that enough coal is to be landed for the service of the railways on which the troops aro to be transported.