PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2904, 17 October 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The view has been freely advanced in aome recent' messages that Rumania is seriously threatened with invasion as a result of the enemy offensive in Transylvania, but a much more hopeful opinion is expressed to-day by a Petrograd correspondent, who claims incidentally to be possessed of some definite information as to the strength the enemy is bringing to bear upon his latest venture.' According to this correspondent von Falkenhayn has only ten divisions'in all, three of them German, one Austrb-German, and the remaining six Austrp-Hun-gai-ian. Ten divisions means a total strength under all heads of about 200,000 men, of .whom: not touch more than'half would be infantry. It m&y seem unlikely that an invasion of Rumania would be attempted with so small a force, but on the other hand it is difficultto see how the Central Powers can have massed a: much greater army in Transylvania without inviting disaster in more important _ theatres. To say, as has been said by ,t,he highest authorities, that the enemy no longer possesses a strategic reserve, is not to use a meaningless phrase. It is to assert that the enemy can now move troops to oho front only at the cost of weakening another; that he no longer possesses a reserve force available to meet new demands. This being the state to which the enemy is reduced, tho account now given of the strength of his army in Transylvania is quite possibly in accordance with - the tacts. (

Another factor than that of numbers which has to be considered is strength of artillery, and it is very possible that in this factor the enemy lias a decided advantage, and ono tzpon which he relies. At presont Rumania can obtain outside supplies only through Rnssia, who is herself - greatly hampered in the matter of importations. The actual facts iare more or less a matter of conjecture, but a marked inferiority in' artillery as compared with the enemy certainly suggests /itself as a probablo weakness in the otherwise strong position which Rumania holds: To say that von Falkenhayn in all likelihood has a considerable artillery, superiority in his favour is not, of course, to suggest that the position of Rumania is desperate. There is certainly nothing in. Available news to support so gloomy a conclusion. The latest official report in hand, tells of a continued retreat upon the frontier, but it is stated also that all attacks upon the frontier have been repulsed. The .position is, therefore, substantially unchanged, i

It is suggested by the correspon : dent already quoted that the enemy's plan is to "cork up" all the Trauaylvanian passes and then force the frontier 45 miles north-east of Brasso, where he would emerge within convenient distance of a railway _ which crosses the frontier and con'-" nects with the main trunk line through Rumania. The execution of some such plan would no doubt represent the lull realisation of the enemy's hopes, but it must be considered also that his ends would be ,'in great part served if the Rumanians_ were compelled to abandon offensive operations against Bulgaria in order, to concentrate in defence of the Transylvanian frontier. As an effort by the Central Powers to reverse the tide which has turned so strongly against them in tho war, the Transylvanian offensive docs not bulk very formidably. Evidently it must bo regarded as an attempt to hampor, and if possible upset, the free and concerted development of the Allied offensive in the Balkans, land to keep the Austro-German communications through tho Peninsula open, at all events for " the period of tho coming winter. The actual invasion of Rumania is not necessarily an essential condition to success in this ventmrc. At a general view, however, the enemy's prospects of achieving his aim do not seem bright. Even in Transylvania, where he is now concentrating bis efforts, he is still far from having recovered tho advantageous position which he lost in the initial passages of tho campaign.