MAKING FOE PEACE

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2880, 19 September 1916, Page 7

MAKING FOE PEACE

SOME FACTORS OF INFLUENCE

(By J. D. Siovn-right.)

Millions throughout tho British Empire have settled down to win tho war and have given up' the idea of an early pcaco. Military authorities speak with assurance and assert that tho war will last a long time yet. Neutral civilians of sufficient eminenco to havo their viows cabled, tell us that the war will probably collapse as rapidly as it broke out. It is whispered in high places that tho German Headquarters Staff knows that Germany is beaten; and such distinguished authorities as Hilaire Belloc say that Germany's man power will bo exhausted this month or tho next. But she has yet four and a half millions in tho field. Although they aro spread over an enormous two thousand miles —the contraction of that front would enablo Germany to strengthen her defence. The danger of such a movo is obvious: - Should strategy induce tho enemy to fall back to and entrench upon the Rhine, Germany, it may be contended, could hold up Franco and Britain indefinitely. That may bo, but politically such a movement would have a disastrous effect upon tho German populace, already sullen with discontent and disappointment. Then, it is a military axiom that a nation having mado war And entrenches is beaten. Germany made tho war, and after the turn of tho Manic was compelled to entrench. But it is twontyone months since that movement was effected and Germany is still apparently presenting as strong a front as over to the Allies. Yet tho pessimistic must allow that Germany has mado no progress on tho Western front, and the optimists affirm that another failure lileo Verdun (which somo wag has said the' Germans pronounce We'rcdono) and tho German offensive will cease.. And when men of 50 and over and' boys of 18 and 19 are being sent into the firing line, it is'safe to affirm that Germany is rapidly reaching the end of her man power'. That is ono factor making for an early peace, in a military sonse, for the Germans know that tho Allies' man power is daily a growing force, ■and they further" realiso that Turkey, Austria, and Bulgaria, aro utterly incapable- of supplying fighting forces where Germany requires them most. Indeed, tho allies of Germany havo now readied a stato in which thoy are looking to her for that military and financial help which she is unablo to provide. Peaco cannot long bo deferred. Meantime, wo must summon up our j spirit for a greater effort to smash Germany and free for over Europo and the world from tho super-devil power. Tlio Financial Faotor. Tho strength of -this factor for an early peaco is scarcely realisable. The depreciation of tho German mark among neighbouring neutral countries amounts to thirty per cent. To put it plainly, ono shilling of equal German money, worth normally twelve pennies, is now worth eightpence. That is the simplo interpretation of the exchange -values as reported.from Berne, Stockholm, Copenhagen, and Amsterdam. It is slightly better in New York, jvhero Germany , finds it profitablo to invest her marks in_ cotton and copper that cannot bo delivered till after-tho war. With a falling credit and a depreciating mark value, Germany sees clearly that it will' pay bettor to hold) cotton and copper, which are- raw matorials and may riso ill value, than to hold onto'her own currency. The fall in the value of the mark tells the doom of fjerman credit abroad, and sp"eaks louder than words'tho recognition by oven friendly neutrals of tho defeat of Gormaiiy. Neighbouring nations havo lost hope in Germany, and she is in tho condition of; a forlorn bankrupt who offers thirteen shillings and fourperico in tlio pound,- but cannot get anyorfb to back her "paper. 7 ' Fufthor, the strain of tho war ,lias exhausted her productive power, and : her industries for export trade have ceased. What of her Allies? The huge national deficit of Austro-Hungary .is being mado up by the wholesale issue of paper money. Turkey is in even a worse plight. Her soldiers have not been paid for months, ■ her exchequer is empty, and her appeals to Germany for financial help aro now unheeded. How long will these countries bo able to brato up their finance with makeshifts and make-believe is uncertain. An uncensored postcard from Vienna savs: "Provisions suffice, but money is lacking. Wo spend monthly ■ all we earn and two hundred of crowns (£8) of our savings besides." That from a family of four with an income of six hundred crowns per month before the war shows how privato purses aro pinched and tho public funds are equally depleted. In another throe months tlio financial position of all enemy countries will be desperate and unbearable. Already neutrals aro anticipating a victory 'for tho Allies. The hour of its announcement is with the German people, and cannot bo long postponed. Internal Secessions, It has been well said that tho British naval blockade is slowly starving tbe German people. Hungry people aro angry .people. Add to hunger disappointment at the prolongation of a war that was to havo been heralded with joy-bells of victory within six weeks of its declaration, and tho condition of the average Gorman can be imagined. The Kaiser has postponed victory so often that tho heart of Germany is sick: What crowns their misery is that the sense of defeat is dominant. Starvation leads to rioting. Political leaders disagree and parties are at variance. Notably von Tirpitz gives way to Bethmann-Hollweg. Tho Socialists split, and their leader, Ilcrr Haase, forms a new party entirely for peace. This is not the time to appreciate an enomy, but it is oncouraging to hear Haaso say: "The end of this wholesale slaughter cannot bo calculated, and the best patriots arc those who advocate an honest peace." That is tho sense" of defeat: -it is the cry for peace, and it is the expression or the masses of Germany. Yet the people do not know tlio whole truth nor do they realise to _ tlio full the extremis into which their country has been plunged by their War Lord, who sought world domination by forco of arms and "frightfulness." The Trade Factor. It has been p noted : that Germany's oversea ' trado has been virtually stopped for a year and a half. Wo cannot imagino tho loss and misery this-has entailed upon tho industrial, commercial, and shipping firms and employees of Germany. Somo mitigation has been found in increased efforts to feed the war wastage, but the* German business man and political leader sees in that but a sapping of national industrial trado and power. Baroii von Zedlitz is the leader of the Prussian Conservatives, and in an article in the "Tag" ho warns his countrymen agaiiist "underrating the danger that may threaten us by way of commercial war after tho conclusion of peace.- Our foreign trado has now beoii almost entirely interrupted for a year and a half, liven tho trade with neutrals." tho Baroii observes, "has, under the tremendous pressure of England, been.reduced to a minimum. The longer tlio war lasts the more wo lose tho foreign trade." That's where the shoo pinches. That is surely making for pcaco among the- commercial men of .Germany. Conclusion.. From a man-power view Germany cannot long maintain an aggressive

war. The fall" in tho value of the mark and its continued decline both at homo and abroad is an unmistakable sign of Germany's financial ruin. _ All that, together with political disruptions and social distress, must hasten tho oud. And tlio loss of foreign trade, oven if the war stopped to-morrow, caiinot bo repaired in a lifetime. _If one could conceive of tho Prussian ivar party realising what is _ best for Germany there would bo a military collapse within a month. As tho Kaiser cannot bo expected to surrender to tho inevitable, as ho cannot march back to Berlin as tho Konquerer of Europe, it may. be necessary to slaughter another quarter million of his men, as was douo at Verdun on some sector of the Western front, and it may bft necessary to creato . more and still moro frightfulness in othor places. That, too, will, however, hasten the end—when in a few months at most tho Kaiser, wlio aimed to bo tlio world's conqueror, becomes a vanquished man.