PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2836, 29 July 1916, Page 8

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The fall of Erzingan must probably be regarded iis a much more important event in the Russian campaign -against Turkey than' the capture of Erzerum. It at all events does a great deal to make an .end of difficulties which have- -hitherto hampered and limited the development of the Russian offensive.' 'Stating the position iii the baldest terms, possession of Erzingan means to .the Russians ' the security-, of • a- great part of their front extending-across' Armenia, and freedom to. strike forward in the region"where ah often-, sive is , likely to tell with the most decisive effect—that is to say, on tho southern • scction of the Armenian front, where the Russians are headed for the' Bagdad railway. The fall of Erzingan docs not mean that matters are now in, train for a triumphant advance on the Bagdad railway, and 'along -it to the Mediterranean coast. On the contrary, even' to reach the railhead of tho line at,Nisibin,. the Russians will have to advance through something like a hundred miles of country affording {he poorest facilities for transport, and su.eh--.ah advance will certainly not be easy against an enemy with a railway at his back. But until Erzingan had been reached, other dangers were-involved in a move against-' the Bagdad;.railway which have now been, largely swept away. The chief of these "dangers was that while- the Russians were advancing from Southern Armenia, their line in Central and Northern Armenia in'ight have been driven in. At its worst, this would have- meant the severing of the communications upon which all but the northern ■section of-the Russian forces in Armenia are dependent, and grave risk of disaster' to forccs advancing in the. south. In developing their, campaign the Russians- aimed at tho elimination of this danger, a'iid tliey have very notab]y succeeded.

Master-stroke as it was, the capture .of Erzerum was only a "first, and indeed an early «step towards the-" position which, has now been reached. At Erzerum the Turks were "taken unawares by one of the most dashing strokes of.the. war, and suffered, a disastrous,', b'ut'-nbt -a crippling, defeat.- ' The late-events ■'of the.-campaign culminating in' 'the fall of Erzingan signalise the ruinous iailiiyo. a,rid..c.pllapse; of an.or-, ganised effort on their part to re : establish the strong position which •was-shaken and endangered by the loss of Erzerum. When this fortress fell the Turks remained established in'a great part of the hundred miles of mountainous country which divides it from Erzingan, and retained command of . roads which enabled them to-concentrate at will against different and widely separated sections of the Russian front. The necessarily-slow development of the Russian campaign gave' the enemy time to bring up very heavy reinforcements and supplies,. and a great part of- Turkey's total available strength has, in fact.. been em-, ployed in the attempt to drive, the Russians hack. ;ti>. the: . Caucasus, Turkish prospects of regaining, the upper hand did not entirely disappear even when the . Russians ex-tended-their foothold'-on the Black Sea coast to.Trebizond. Now, however, the enemy is at a hopeless disadvantage in Northern -and- Central Armenia, and: must Centre-.Jtis-liopes Upon • direct 'resist-atittrto Hher. Russian forward movement in the south, towards the Bagdad railway. This - movement-' in- the first place threatens the Turkish communications with -Mesopotamia, and if it is successfully continued,' will ulti-. 'niately sever the; Turkish; 'bonirnunScatioiis with.Syria, 'Oh the fron.t;, which includes Erzingan...the. Russians now have fairly good communications north arid south, as well as from, the east. The Turks are now much worse .off in .both particulars.. Their cross-communications are bad,. , and nxccpt where--their lines - cover the Bagdad railway- on the south, they ar<3 operating hun-' dreds of miles ahead of the nearest'' railway:' The situation of Erzingan made it a very important base and depot, and, as the Russian reports show, the -Turks, in evacuating the place, had to abandon, a very large quantity of war material. , ' .-'

Much as detached expeditions are but of favour, the marked development of. the Armenian campaign supplies the Allies with an obvious make a dcsccnt on the Mediterranean coast in the region of the Gulf of tAlexandretta, where it is closely approached by the' Bagdad railway'.' The Russians are in possession of tho mountain passes which are the gateways to an advance against the'eastern railhead of the line, and-they may advance now at any time. An-Allied landing on the Mediterranean seaboard, in the region indicated, would represent an attack in rear upon the main communications of'the Turkish army resisting tho Russians, ; and' the enterprise seems to have a great 1 deal to. recommend it. The Turks are said to have thrown (ip strong defences covering the railway where it is open to attack from tho coast, but they would nevertheless. bo at, a serious disadvantage if such an attack were made in concert with a Russian advance from • the . cast. Meantime there is a certain benefit to the Allies in tho fact that the Turks are bound to detail a fairly strong, force for- the defence of this vital section of the Mediterranean coast to guard- against the possibility of attack, even if no attack is made.

Extremely heayy fighting has already been resumed on ~the British front, north of tho Sommc, but no extraordinary changc in the situation' 'is' disclosed time ofwriting. A slight advance has been effected north-east of Pozicres, and more important gains have been secured further cast, at Longucval and Delvillc Wood, but no such important forward movement is recorded as was represented in the capture of P.ozicres; The French, meantime, have captured some "■round east of Estrecs; south of the Summe, 'but in an attack of limited scope. In essentials, the present period evidently marks an interval between one main stage of the battle and another. It is, of course, probable that the interval may be very brief. |)

Much that is said about the concentration' of enemy reinforcements on theSom'inc is of a more or less speculative character, and must await the test! of events. That tho enemy is bringing up all the troops and *gun> he can muster may bo taken for granted. -Ho" is imminently threatened with disastrous defeat, and is" "bound'.to make every possible effort to . avcrt ; that. fate. But "iii. 'order to. g'vasp. It's realities'' the position must be considered, in,

light of the fact that Germany is finding "it increasingly' difficult to provide" the "reinforcements for which war in its late developments is creating a rapidly rising demand. That Germany is already "feeling, the pinch of necessity is demonstrated conclusively both in her failure to hold the Allies on the Somme and in "her failure "to prop; .up/the tottering Austro-Gcrman dein Southern Eu'ssia and Galicia. It is possible that heavy rcinforcemfents are still available, for the Somme front, but it is tolerably certain that the Germans will not provide them without seriously .weakening and -didahgering their position elsewhere, and it is by the aggregate effect of their .'attacks thai? the Allies look to win the war and not by their rate of progress 'for the time being in any single enterprise.

While . the scope. of\ the enemy's concentration in-anticipation of a full-powered renewal-if the Somme offensive is largely a matter of speculation, there seems to be a unanimity of, opinion that the late : British successes are of decisive importance . as paving the. way for a further - advance. Oiie correspondent even- declares that-the British have already driven through the most elaborate Germansdefences, and that less formidable work-lies ahead. This may call for some reservation in regard to--the-line.-of hill positions still held by the enemy in face of the British attack, "but this line is now very closely threatened. On visible evidence, the outlook for the Allies is distinctly promising. Since the offensive opened on July 1, the. British alone - have captured -24 square miles of territory-, -a • great network of elaborate defences constructed by. the enemy .''.in... many. months of arduous labour-.-,: 1 A somewhat greater area of similarly defended country has be-jii captured'.by the Jrench on.-the southern-section of the battlefield. There is now a very good.. prospect, of the, conflict ■ Boon being carried into, an ;area in Ivhich the enemy will have' to rely upon hastily 'constructed, an'd therefore much I .'less defeners, and it is cort-ain that-he will achieve no concentration, of .men and guns which the'Alljes. .are not..capable ,of. 'surpassing. "It v?ould be the, greatest possible mistake, however, to look only at the- local position .reached in the battle. The necessity the enemy is,under of concen-t-rating as his. mean?.will permit in defence- of • tho-. Somme front represents an achievement by the Allies which will react with benefit upon distant areas of conflict-. The resources of the Germans in defence are being measured, but it .is much tor* sewn -to. attempt-to measure the resources c'f -the Allies in attack.

One refercnce.to-day to enemy je.-. inforcements "ind/the '.movement of enemy reserves is a repetition' of the story that-Turkish troops are being sent to the main Eastern front. It is stated. that a 'number . of trainloads. of-'Turks passed..through- Sofia en route -to the'; • Eastern theatre; Strange things happeiv when small' nations are under' the'-thuiiit) of-an autocratic suzerain Power, , but it passes belief that Turkey is sending her troops abroad whem her own house threatens to tumble in ruins -about her ears. It is certain-.at least'that the Turkish troops were never so': badly needed at home "as' they |.are now, and» other things apart, -the fall o.f..Turkey._would be such a blow. ,to! Germah-y/.that she.-.-is • not likely, .to hasten i-t-hy-f-iu'thdr weakening- the already. sadly-'-'wea'kfi'ned Turkish armies.-' It is -More.probable that she 'will-''do-hey'utmost,.tb. iii-i duce Turkey to t " resist to the' last gasp, a<nd she .may. be expected-:-to pursue a similar. "aim with Bul-garia-in the Balkans.'"""

' There is little news from .the ■Eastern theatre'.at time of writing, and no pronounccd development is .report-ed in the advance on Lemberg from the'north—an advanca in the first instance oiv the'r.ailway town of is 'the-main enterprise the Russians ■ " have. in hand for the time being. Enemy reports allege heavy Russian defeats, but the' Russians' themselves supply, a more probable account of tho position in the statement that they arc. fighting" for the possession .of important river crossings. . '. '.