PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2755, 26 April 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

If it had occurred a few months ago the stir of fighting in the Sinai Peninsula reported to-day might have been taken to mean that the' Turks were .about to attempt an attack on the Suez Canal, but in existing circumstanoss another ex-, planation . must be sought. There are now all but conclusive' grounds for a belief that the Turks have abandoned the Canal project as it was formerly planned, and it is safe to assume that their present activity is undertaken with some less ambitious object than that of getting across the. waterway or evqn seriously interfering with its traffic. It is known that the Canal defences have been developed upon a formid--able scale, and at the same time such heavy and increasing calls are being made upon Turkish resources elsewhere than in Syria as may be expected to' preclude the opening of a new and onerous campaign. Favoftred by weather conditions, the Turks are able for the time to hold their, own in Mesopotamia, but theso conditions will not last, and they must look forward to a struggle on the Tigris, under conditions very much less' to their advantage. In Armenia they are already being subjected to crushing pressure against \fhich they have thus far completely failed to make head. They arei obviously under the necessity of strengthening their forces both' in Armenia and in Mesopotamia. Tho alternative is to invite and await disaster. •-

It has beon stated on apparently good authority that when Erzerum fell, reinforcements for the Turkish armies in Armenia were drawn from the forces assembled in Syriaforces with which it had originally been intended to attack the Canal. Enver Pasha, so the story goes, wished to draw the necessary reinforcements from the regulars in garrison at but this course was vetoed 'by the German Staff in Turkey on the" ground that the Adrianople garrison must be prepared to co-operate with the Ger-. manic combination in the Balkans. The only practicable alternative was •to draw the reinforcements from Syria, and this, it is said, was done. The evacuation of Galllpoli, of course, released some Turkish divisions for service in Armenia, but events in that quarter show that the Turks have not concentrated the strength necessary to stem an, invasion which is assuming increasingly dangerous proportions. Whatever the actual distribution of their available forces may be, it is fairly clear that the Turks are in no condition to open an offensive campaign of any serious magnitude. Apart from visible calls upon their resources they arc open to attack on their European seaboard facing the' Aegea- and along the coast of Asia Minor. It is not at all unlikely, that the Allies may undertake a landing at Enos or elsewhere in connection with the development (if their Balkan enterprise, and the mere expectation of such a move must involve fairly strong Turkish, forces being established in tho_ coastal areas. Another factor making against an attack on the' Canal is the advancc of the season. The time of wet wea--ther is drawing to an end, and the drying up of wells—few enough at any time—in itself goes far to preclude serious operations in the interior of the Sinai Peninsula.

That the Turks, under these unfavourable circumstances, have undertaken action even upon a limited scale in the Sinai Peninsula argues that they aim at achioviag indirect >

rather than direct results.- Circumstances generally are wholly unfavourable to an attack on the Canal, but motives for such action as they have taken arc not on that account far to seek. The problem constituted by the presence of a powerful army defending the Canal is not one which the Turks can attempt to solve or leave alone as they think lit. The British forces "in Egypt are not tied down in their present location, 'and it is to be expected that a proportion of their strength will be actively employed against Turkey or her allies in any case.. Certainly this does not depend upon the Turks persevering in their project against the Canal or giving it up as a bad job. It is in Turkey's interest to hold the largest possible British force on the eastern frontier of Egypt, for the good and sufficient' reason that whatever proportion -of these troops can. be safely removed will presumably be used against" lior where they will be likely to tell with the greatest effect.

This being so, the reported action of the Turks in the Sinai Peninsula has a not unimportant bearing upon the larger developments, present and prospective, of the war in'- the south-, eastern theatre. As reports go, the Turks attacked British posts on the caravan route which runs east from El Kantara, on the Canal,' to the Mediterranean, coast at El Arish, about eighty miles away. The enterprise was attended by serious risks from the Turkish standpoint, since the route in question runs at no great distance from the coast even in ■the area of the recent attacks, and hugs the coast for a considerable part of its length further east. No doubt it was selected in spite of this disability because- of the presence of wells, which are lacking in the desert areas to the south. As it is described the fighting was'little more than an affair of outposts. Thiee'thousand Turks attacked the iivitish post 5t Katiyeh, 22 miles east of the Canal, and compelled the small Yeomanry garrison which held the , place to Withdraw. About seven miles further west a smaller Turkish force attacked another British post at Duweidar._ Apparently they reached this point by making a circuit through the desert to the south of the Kantara route./In any case'they were beaten off ana pursued, losing heavily. At the point to which events are oarried the Turks should be at least twenty miles away from the Canal in the northern zone of the Sinai. Peninsula.

**. * s Possibly these events mark the beginning of a period of sporadic lighting, in which the Turks will devote a screen of mobile troops to the enterprise of keeping the British force defending the Canal in play. V hat measure of success the enemy ,is' likely to achieve in this direction is not easily estimated at the moment. Fa«ed as he is by a superior force, Ivell provided with aircraft, his prospects may not seem bright, but there are some- circumstances in his favour, of which the chief is that, a northward advance through the Sinai Peninsula and Syria is not likely to find ft place in British plans. Such an advance would be opposed by serious difficulties, as a result of the desert nature of the country to be traversed, and would in any case hold out no immediate prospect of advantage. There are much better ways of. striking at .Turkey than by attempting an advance through Syria; As a necessary consequencc, the Turks are likely to be left with a certain Emount of scope for such activities as they set afoot on Saturday, but it does not'follow that they will succeed in hindering the transfer of portion of the British forces, in Egypt to other theatres. Indeed, it is likely that some of these forces have already been transferred.

No sensational development is reported at time of writing in the main campaigns, but there is an exceptional stir of aerial activity in the Western theatre, the Allies making various raids upon the v enemy communications. This feature of the position, and pronounced artillery activity in the area of the Ypres salient, chiefly command attention at the moment. ' ■

In Mesopotamia no material change is reported. The Turks, as was to be expected, give a highly-coloured account of the British reverse' .ut Sannaiyat, but a British official report shofrs that the Turkish lines at this place are still being bombarded. Evidently there is jio thought of giving up the attach though it may not bo possiblo, for a time, to drive it homo.. . , .

i A notable capture effected by naval patrols on the Irish coast is that of Sir ■ Roger Casement, who has figured in the limelight since the war began as a traitor to his Wintry. He has a peculiar record. A lengthy career in the British Consular service earned him a knighthood and a pension, but theso circumstances did not deter him from becoming a renegade, and throwing in l]is lot with the crime-6tainnd country which has plunged the world . into the most dreadful war known to history. While the whole civilised world been appalled at German savageries, Sin. llogeb Casement, has been heard of as promoting projects for the. union of Germany and Ireland,_ and engaging in such ignoble as endeavouring to induoe Irish prisoners of war to ,take" service with the enemy. A harebrained schemc. of landing arms and ammunition in Ireland has delivered the traitor into the hands of justice, and it may be taken for granted that the event will nowhere be more gladly welcomed than in the country in _ which he vainly lioped to foment his treasons.